حدد الفصل الرابع من قانون التحالف الوطنى للعمل الأهلى موارد التحالف الوطنى لإمكانية استمراره في العمل التنموي وتتمثل في الآتي:
1. اشتراكات أعضائه على النحو المبين بلائحة النظام الأساسي.
2. أموال التبرعات والهبات والمنح النقدية والعينية التي يتلقاها من الأشخاص الطبيعية أو الاعتبارية المصرية.
3. المـنـح النقديـة والعينيـة التـي يتلقاهـا مـن الأشخاص الطبيعيـة أو الاعتباريـة الأجنبية، وذلك بعد موافقة رئيس مجلس الوزراء.
4. ريع أو عائد بيع أي من الأصول المملوكة له.
5. عائد استثمار أمواله.
6. ما قد تخصصه الدولة له كمساهمات.
7. أي موارد أخرى يصدر بتحديدها قرار من مجلس الأمناء.
ويكـون للتحالف حسـاب أو أكثـر بـالبنوك الخاضعة لإشراف البنك المركزي المصري، تودع فيها موارده.
وفى ذات السياق نصت المادة 17 من ذات القانون على أن تُعد أمـوال التحالف أمـوال خاصـة، ويكـون لـه مـوازنـة خاصـة يـتم إعـدادها طبقا للقواعـد التي تحددها لائحة النظام الأساسي.
وتبدأ السنة المالية للتحالف في الأول من يوليـه وتنتهـي فـي اليـوم الأخيـر مـن يـونيـه من كل عام ميلادي.
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks onstage during a campaign event, in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., September 29, 2024.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
Harris campaign surrogates are planning a series of stops with small businesses in at least six battleground states this week, according to a preview of the announcement first obtained by CNBC on Tuesday.
Harris will not be attending these specific events herself. The campaign said “elected officials” and “community leaders” will go in her place, but did not specify who the surrogates will be.
The campaign tour, titled “Small Business for Harris-Walz,” is billed in part as an appeal to Black and Latino communities, key voter demographics that were essential to Democrats’ 2020 victory but have begun to slip in favor of Republican nominee Donald Trump this election cycle.
Trump has been working to capitalize on that momentum.
“If you’re Black or Hispanic, thank you very much, vote for Trump. You’ll be in good shape,” he said at a Georgia rally last Tuesday.
This week’s small business tour is the Harris campaign’s latest effort to quell Trump’s gains.
President Joe Biden ran a similar playbook when he was expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee before he dropped out of the race in July.
In December, for example, he touted the gains of Black-owned and Latino-owned small businesses under his administration as a way to highlight his efforts to close the racial wealth gap and to win back voters who felt nostalgic for the pre-pandemic economy that Trump oversaw.
Harris is adopting that argument for her own campaign, working to draw a similar contrast with her Republican opponent.
“Vice President Harris has proven that she will be a champion for small business,” Richard Garcia, the Harris campaign’s small business engagement director, wrote in a statement Tuesday. “Unlike Donald Trump who is only fighting for himself.”
Over the next week, the Harris campaign will extend that pitch specifically to small businesses in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The campaign plans to host a variety of organizing events, volunteer trainings and house parties.
So far, Harris has proposed giving small businesses a $50,000 tax deduction for their startup expenses, a tenfold expansion from the current $5,000 deduction. She has also floated a 28% tax on long-term capital gains, a lower rate than Biden’s 40% tax proposal in order to reward “investment in America’s innovators, founders and small businesses.”
As the United States presidential election approaches on November 5, polls show Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump locked in a tight, too-close-to-call race.
But while the US election is about who the American people want to see leading them, the country’s outsized influence means the contest is being watched closely in capitals around the world.
So who would various world leaders want to see in the White House?
While the Russian leader has suggested — perhaps in jest — that he might prefer Harris as president, many signs point towards Putin actually favouring a Trump win.
“Putin would love Trump as president for various reasons,” Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
“First, Putin thinks Trump is soft on Russia and will roll over to give him a great deal on Ukraine – cutting military support to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia,” he said.
“I think Putin looks at Trump and sees a mirror image of himself, an authoritarian, sociopath. He likely thinks he understands Trump,” Ash added.
Furthermore, Putin “hates” the system of Western liberal market democracy, and the Russian leader “thinks Trump will continue where he left off in Trump 1.0 in sowing disunity and chaos”, undermining institutions like NATO and the European Union.
However, Russian analysts say regardless of who wins, Moscow officials believe the US’s aversion towards Russia will remain, the Anadolu news agency reported.
Putin has previously been outspoken about his thoughts on US presidential politics and has made endorsements for candidates time and time again since 2004.
Before the 2016 election, Putin talked Trump up to reporters during an annual news conference. “He is a bright and talented person without any doubt,” he said.
In July 2016, the US intelligence community accused Putin of election interference with the aim of helping Trump defeat Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. In 2020, a bipartisan US Senate report found that Russia had meddled in the 2016 election. US intelligence also alleged that Russia meddled in the 2020 election.
On July 9 this year, a US intelligence official – without naming Trump – indicated to reporters that Russia favoured Trump in the 2024 race.
“We have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the US is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia,” the official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said.
In September, Putin made a tongue-in-cheek reference to Harris, describing her as having an “expressive and infectious laugh” which, he said, indicates “she’s doing well” and maybe would not impose sanctions on Russia.
“I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favour,” Trump responded at a campaign rally on the same day as Putin made the wry remarks.
In October, veteran reporter Bob Woodward alleged in his new book that Trump had made at least seven phone calls to Putin since he left the presidency in January 2021. These allegations were rejected by Trump’s campaign and by Trump himself. “He’s a storyteller. A bad one. And he’s lost his marbles,” Trump said about Woodward to ABC News.
Later in October, during the closing of the BRICS summit, Putin said Trump “spoke about his desire to do everything to end the conflict in Ukraine. I think he is being sincere”.
Trump has been critical of the aid the US sends to Ukraine against Russia’s war and says he will promptly “end the war” if elected.
China’s President Xi Jinping has not publicly made an endorsement.
As with Russia, both Democrats and Republicans have taken a tough stance towards China. During his presidency, Trump started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on $250bn of Chinese imports in 2018. China hit back, placing tariffs on $110bn of US imports.
It does not seem like Trump would back down from that if elected, but Democrats could also rally against China’s growing influence worldwide.
When Joe Biden became president, he kept Trump’s tariffs in place. Furthermore, on September 13 this year, the Biden administration announced increases in tariffs on certain Chinese-made products. If Harris wins, she is expected to stay consistent with Biden’s policy towards China.
Neither Trump nor Harris have gone into detail about what their course of action would be towards China if they are elected.
Despite Trump’s trade war, he has boasted of his good relationship with Xi. After Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 14, he said world leaders had reached out to him. “I got along very well with President Xi. He’s a great guy, wrote me a beautiful note the other day when he heard about what happened,” Trump told a rally.
However, behind the scenes, Chinese officials may be slightly leaning towards Harris, NBC News quoted Jia Qingguo, the former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, as saying.
“The irony is, Xi probably wants Harris, as does Iran,” Ash told Al Jazeera while talking about Putin.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly endorsed either candidate. However, it is widely believed that he leans towards a Trump win.
Netanyahu and Trump had a good relationship during the former US president’s first term. In 2019, at the Israeli-American Council, Trump said: “The Jewish state has never had a better friend in the White House than your president.”
The feelings were mutual. Netanyahu, in a 2020 statement, said that Trump was “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”.
Relations between Trump and Netanyahu soured after Biden was elected. When Biden was sworn in, Netanyahu congratulated him. Trump said he felt betrayed by this, in an interview.
However, the Israeli prime minister has made attempts to rekindle the old bond. During a US visit in July this year, Netanyahu visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. Axios reported that an ally of Netanyahu even travelled to Mar-a-Lago before the actual meeting of the two leaders, to read passages from Netanyahu’s book, praising Trump.
The Israeli leader also posted a video on social media expressing shock about the assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania in July, which was reposted by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social.
At the same time, the Biden administration has shown unwavering diplomatic and military assistance to Netanyahu’s government amid Israel’s war on Gaza, where the death toll of Palestinians stands at 43,061 according to the United Nations humanitarian agency (OCHA), as of October 29.
Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza on October 7 last year – following a Hamas-led attack on villages and army outposts in southern Israel – Biden’s government has sent billions of dollars in military aid to Israel.
Last October 4, Biden told a news conference that he does not know whether Netanyahu is purposefully holding up a ceasefire deal in Gaza, despite reports and speculation that the Israeli leader might have been holding up an agreement on purpose, possibly to influence the US election result.
“No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that,” Biden said during the news conference, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
A majority of European leaders prefer Harris as the US president.
“I know her well. She would certainly be a good president,” Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany told reporters.
Trump has threatened to leave NATO several times. However, Politico reported that his national security advisers and defence experts say it is unlikely he will exit the alliance.
Regardless, his complaints about NATO remain. It is expected that he would want NATO allies to increase their defence spending targets.
In February, Trump stirred the pot with allies in Europe by suggesting he would tell Russia to attack NATO allies that he considered “delinquent”.
Additionally, Trump’s victory could mean less alignment with European countries on collaboration for renewable energy initiatives.
This is because Trump has campaigned for more fossil fuel production to enable the US to reduce reliance on foreign energy imports. “We will drill, baby, drill,” he told the Republican National Convention while accepting the party’s nomination in July.
On the other hand, Harris is likely to continue with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and clean energy transition plans, creating opportunities to collaborate with Europe. However, Harris has also been accused of making a U-turn on sustainability promises such as fracking.
During her 2019 run for the presidential primaries, Harris had promised to ban fracking, a technique of extracting oil and gas by drilling into the earth – which environmental campaigners say is particularly damaging as it consumes large amounts of water and releases the greenhouse gas methane. Trump had criticised her for this promise.
During the presidential debate between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania in September, however, Harris said: “I will not ban fracking, I have not banned fracking as vice president.”
While India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a close relationship with Trump during the latter’s presidency, Modi was also one of the first world leaders to congratulate Biden on his 2020 election victory.
https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1325145433828593664?lang=en
“I don’t believe that Modi has a strong preference for one candidate over another,” Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for the South Asia, Asia-Pacific Programme at the Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
“There is a high degree of bipartisan consensus in Washington on deepening relations with India and viewing it as a long-term strategic partner – arguably as much consensus as there is on viewing China as a long-term strategic rival,” Bajpaee wrote in an article for Chatham House.
He wrote that the three key pillars of US engagement with India are that India is the world’s largest democracy, that the US sees India as a bulwark against China, and India’s potentially growing economy.
Michael Kugelman, the director of the Washington, DC-based Wilson Center think tank’s South Asia Institute, told Al Jazeera that the Indian government will weigh the pros and cons for both candidates.
When it comes to Trump, “there may be a sense in New Delhi that that would be a good thing for India because there may be a perception that Trump would not make a fuss about internal matters in India, including human rights issues,” Kugelman said, adding that despite this, the government of India would be concerned about Trump’s “unpredictable” governing style.
“While Donald Trump is more familiar to Modi from his first term in office, a Kamala Harris presidency offers a degree of continuity from the current Biden administration,” Bajpaee told Al Jazeera.
Under Biden, ties between the US and India deepened in terms of defence, technology and economy. Biden made India a Major Defence Partner, despite India not being a formal military ally and its reliance on Russia for military assistance.
In May 2022, on the sidelines of the Quad summit in Tokyo, India and the US announced an Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), to enhance cooperation in AI, quantum computing and other technological advances.
Before Modi’s visit to India in September this year, Trump called Modi “fantastic” but, at the same time, called India an “abuser of import tariffs”.
South Korea is a key ally of the US in the Asia-Pacific. While the country’s president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has not explicitly endorsed a candidate, the relationship between South Korea and the US has flourished under Biden.
Commentary published in September by US think tank Brookings said that during the Trump administration, “South Koreans were dismayed by charges they were not contributing enough to their defence and to the upkeep of US forces, despite providing the bulk of front-line combat forces against North Korea”.
On the other hand, “the Biden administration has done little to address the North Korean nuclear threat. It has, however, focused on strengthening bilateral and trilateral ties between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul,” Edward Howell, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera.
Howell said this was made evident at the Camp David Summit of 2023, as well as in presidential-level meetings between Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol.
Howell added that South Korea will want to make sure that US support for it does not wither under the next president “at a time when the East Asian region faces not just the threat of a nuclear North Korea, but an increasingly coercive and belligerent China”.
For US ally Japan, a Trump win may mean he will shift focus to domestic policy and reduce collaboration with Japan, increase tariffs, as well as expect Japan to increase military spending, an analysis published by the Japanese website Nippon Communications Foundation says.
However, Japanese government officials have formed relationships with officials from the last Trump administration, including Bill Hagerty, who is a former ambassador to Tokyo and is seen as a favourite for secretary of state, the analysis by Kotani Tetsuo says.
On the other hand, while a Harris administration would mean more consistent policy with the Biden administration, new relationships would have to be formed with the officials on Harris’s team.
For US ally Australia, “a Trump victory would raise many questions”, Australian reporter Ben Doherty wrote for The Guardian.
Doherty added that many in Australia believe Trump is likely to withdraw from the Paris Agreement if he is re-elected, which could weaken the influence of the informal climate coalition, the Umbrella Group, which Australia is a part of.
Australia also shares a trade relationship with China and a Trump win could mean a trade war with China, which could be detrimental to Australia’s economy.
On the last Sunday before Election Day, Kamala Harris told voters that there is a “divine plan strong enough to heal division” and urged those casting their ballots to reject Donald Trump’s disparagement of an electoral system that he falsely claims is rigged against him.
On the last Sunday before Election Day, Kamala Harris told voters that there is a “divine plan strong enough to heal division” and urged those casting their ballots to reject Donald Trump’s disparagement of an electoral system that he falsely claims is rigged against him.
Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and polls from right-leaning groups that analysts say may be exaggerating his popularity and could be used by Trump to claim only cheating prevented him from returning to the White House.
The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states.
But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.
“We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.
An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”.
Pro-Trump influencers, too, have strengthened the impression of inevitable victory with social media posts citing anonymous White House officials predicting Harris’s defeat. “Biden is telling advisers the election is ‘dead and buried’ and called Harris an innate sucker,” the conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec posted this week.
GOP-aligned polling groups have released 37 polls in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a study by the New York Times, during a period when longstanding pollsters have been curtailing their voter surveys. All but seven showed a lead for Trump, in contrast to the findings of long-established non-partisan pollsters, which have shown a more mixed picture – often with Harris leading, albeit within error margins.
In one illustration, a poll last Tuesday by the Trafalgar Group – an organisation founded by a former Republican consultant – gave Trump a three-point lead over Harris in North Carolina. By contrast, a CNN/SRSS poll two days later in the same state put the vice-president ahead by a single point.
The polling expert Nate Silver – who has said his “gut” favours a Trump win, while simultaneously arguing that people should not trust their gut – cast doubt on the ex-president’s apparent surge in an interview with CNBC. “Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount,” he said.
“There’s been certainly some momentum towards Trump in the last couple of weeks. [But] these small changes are swamped by the uncertainty. Any indicator you want to point to, I could point to counter-examples.”
Democrats and some polling experts believe the conservative-commissioned polls are aiming to create a false narrative of unstoppable momentum for Trump – which could then be used to challenge the result if Harris wins.
“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger. Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right,” Joshua Dyck, of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, told the New York Times.
Simon Rosenberg, a Democrat strategist and blogger, said it followed a trend set in the 2022 congressional elections, when a succession of surveys favourable to Republicans created an expectation of a pro-GOP “red wave” that never materialised on polling day.
“These polls were usually two, three, four points more Republican than the independent polls that were being done and they ended up having the effect of pushing the polling averages to the right,” he told MeidasTouch News.
“We cannot be bamboozled by this again. It is vital to Donald Trump’s effort if he tries to cheat and overturn the election results, he needs to have data showing that somehow he was winning the election.
“The reason we have to call this out is that Donald Trump needs to go into election day with some set of data showing him winning, so if he loses, he can say we cheated.”
Trump, who falsely claims that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election, is also paving the way for repeating the accusation via legal means.
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He told a rally in Pennsylvania that Democrats were “cheating” in the state, and on Wednesday his campaign took legal action against election officials in Bucks County, where voters waiting to submit early mail-in ballots were turned away because the deadline had expired. A judge later ordered the county to extend early voting by one day. There is no evidence of widespread cheating in elections in Pennsylvania or any other state, and mail-in ballots are in high demand in part because Trump himself has encouraged early voting.
Suing to allege – without evidence – that there has been voting fraud is part of a well-worn pattern of Trump disputing election results that do not go his way. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, his team filed 60 lawsuits disputing the results, all of which were forcefully thrown out in court.
Anti-Trump Republicans have expressed similar concerns to Democrats about Trump’s actions. Michael Steele, a former Republican national committee chair and Trump critic, told the New Republic that the GOP-commissioned polls were gamed to favour Trump.
“You find different ways to weight the participants, and that changes the results you’re going to get,” he said. “They’re gamed on the back end so Maga can make the claim that the election was stolen.”
Stuart Stevens, a former adviser to Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican candidate, and a founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, told the same outlet: “Their gameplan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that’s how you lead people to think the race was stolen.”
Trump-leaning surveys have influenced the polling averages published by sites such as Real Clear Politics, which has incorporated the results into its projected electoral map on election night, forecasting a win for the former president.
Elon Musk, Trump’s wealthiest backer and surrogate, posted the map to his 202 million followers on his own X platform, proclaiming: “The trend will continue.”
Trump and Musk have also promoted online betting platforms, which have bolstered the impression of a surge for the Republican candidate stemming from hefty bets on him winning.
A small number of high-value wagers from four accounts linked to a French national appeared to be responsible for $28m gambled on a Trump victory on the Polymarket platform, the New York Times reported.
Trump referenced the Polymarket activity in a recent speech. “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well,” he said.
بعد مُضي أكثر من 3 سنوات على هجوم مبنى الكابيتول الأميركي في محاولة لوقف تسليم السلطة، ومع اقتراب موعد انتخابات 2024 في الخامس من نوفمبر، يعيد دونالد ترمب مجدداً طرح الادعاءات حول سرقة انتخابات 2020، وبمساعدة وسائل إعلام يمينية يدعي أن المهاجرين غير الشرعيين يحاولون التصويت بشكل غير قانوني في الانتخابات.
وتبنى المرشح الجمهوري، طوال موسم الحملة الرئاسية 2024، نسخة متطورة من نظرية مؤامرة كان قد روج لها في 2016، معروفة باسم “الاستبدال العظيم“، تزعم أن الديمقراطيين سمحوا للمهاجرين غير البيض بدخول الولايات المتحدة لاستبدالهم بناخبين أميركيين بيض لتحقيق الأجندة الديمقراطية السياسية، وذلك من خلال التصويت للحزب الديمقراطي في الانتخابات.
ولم تكن تلك المؤامرة الأولى التي تبناها ترمب، فقد سبق ورّوج لنظرية مؤامرة وصفها أستاذ العلوم السياسية والشؤون الدولية ومدير مركز القيادة ودراسات الإعلام ستيفن جيه فارنسورث، في تصريحات لـ”الشرق”، بأنها “أكبر نظريات المؤامرة المرتبطة بانتخابات رئيس الولايات المتحدة”، ويقصد بذلك ادعاءات ترمب بسرقة انتخابات العام 2020.
وكان ترمب قد حاول إلغاء نتائج انتخابات 2020، التي فاز فيها منافسه الرئيس جو بايدن، مدعياً أن الديمقراطيين “زوّروا الانتخابات”، فيما حفزت تلك المزاعم مناصريه للهجوم على مبنى الكابيتول في يناير 2021.
ومع ذلك، لم يكن ترمب الرئيس الوحيد الذي تورط في نظريات مؤامرة تتعلق بالانتخابات، فقد شهدت الانتخابات الأميركية على مدى تاريخها نظريات مؤامرة تتعلق بالتلاعب بالنتائج، أو اتهامات بالتآمر على مرشحين، أو حتى نشر الشائعات للإضرار بالخصوم السياسيين.
وأُثيرت في انتخابات العام 1824 شكوك كبيرة حول مدى نزاهة العملية الانتخابية والصفقات السياسية والمؤامرات التي أثرت على النتيجة النهائية مع فوز جون كوينسي آدامز بالرئاسة، رغم حصد أندرو جاكسون أغلبية الأصوات الشعبية وحصوله على العدد الأكبر من أصوات المجمع الانتخابي.
وفي تلك الانتخابات، تنافس 4 مرشحين رئاسيين من الحزب الجمهوري الديمقراطي، الذي كان الحزب الوحيد آنذاك، وهم أندرو جاكسون، وجون كوينسي آدامز، وويليام كروفورد، وهنري كلاي.
ورغم فوز جاكسون بأغلبية الأصوات الشعبية وحصوله على العدد الأكبر من أصوات المجمع الانتخابي، لم يتمكن أي من المرشحين من تحقيق الأغلبية المطلقة المطلوبة للفوز بالرئاسة.
نتيجة لذلك، تم تحويل القرار إلى مجلس النواب، الذي كان يحق لأعضائه اختيار الرئيس من بين المرشحين الثلاثة الذين حصلوا على أعلى الأصوات في المجمع الانتخابي.
وفي تلك المرحلة، لم يكن كلاي من ضمن المتنافسين النهائيين، لكنه لعب دوراً حاسماً، حيث قيل إنه عقد صفقة مع جون كوينسي آدامز، عُرفت بـ”الصفقة الفاسدة”، إذ دعم كلاي آدامز في التصويت بمجلس النواب، ما أسهم في فوز آدامز بالرئاسة، وفي المقابل، قام آدامز بتعيين كلاي وزيراً للخارجية في إدارته.
لكن الأمر لم ينته عند ذلك، إذ قرر جاكسون بعد 4 سنوات خوض السباق الرئاسي، مدفوعاً بتصاعد الدعم الشعبي له بعد ما اعتبره أنصاره “تلاعباً” بنتائج انتخابات 1824.
وخلال الحملة الانتخابية المحتدمة لعام 1828، ظهرت نظريات مؤامرة جديدة استهدفت جاكسون ومؤيديه. فقد زعم رجال الإدارة الداعمين للرئيس جون كوينسي آدامز أن أنصار جاكسون كانوا يخططون لانقلاب إذا فشل مرشحهم في الفوز بالرئاسة.
وادعت هذه النظرية أن أعضاء كونجرس مؤيدين لجاكسون عقدوا اجتماعات سرية لمناقشة إمكانية “حل الاتحاد”، ووصلت الشائعات إلى حد ترويج فكرة أن جاكسون، إذا لم يتم انتخابه، سيحاول الاستيلاء على السلطة بالقوة، وفقاً لما جاء على موقع مؤسسة “سميثسونيان“.
وعلى الرغم من عدم وجود أي دليل حقيقي يدعم هذه الادعاءات، فإن فكرة أن جاكسون قد يقود تمرداً عسكرياً كانت تتماشى مع أجواء الشك والمشاعر العدائية التي سادت في تلك الانتخابات.
ادعاءات سرقة انتخابات 1824، لم يترتب عليها عنف سياسي واسع وتخريب للثقة في العملية الانتخابية، كما حدث في 2020 من اقتحام مبنى الكابيتول.
وفي هذا الصدد، قال فارنسورث إن أكبر نظريات المؤامرة المرتبطة بانتخابات رئيس الولايات المتحدة هي الادعاءات الكاذبة للرئيس السابق ترمب بأن انتخابات عام 2020 سُرقت، مضيفاً أنه “رغم من أن كل حكم قضائي وكل قرار صادر عن كل حاكم ولاية وهيئة تشريعية للولاية قد أكد أنه لم يكن هناك تزوير انتخابي كافٍ لتغيير النتيجة قبل 4 سنوات، يواصل ترمب والعديد من الجمهوريين تكرار الأكاذيب حول فوزه، وأدى تركيزه المستمر على تلك الادعاءات الكاذبة إلى تآكل الثقة العامة في العملية الانتخابية ونزاهتها وأعد المسرح للفوضى في يوم الانتخابات والأسابيع التي تلتها”.
وبالفعل يعتقد عدد قليل من الأميركيين، بالتحديد 37%، أن انتخابات 2024 ستكون نزيهة، بحسب ما توصل إليه استطلاع رأي أجراه مجلس الشؤون العامة لعام 2023، في الفترة من 1 إلى 3 سبتمبر بواسطة شركة Morning Consult.
وفي حين أن 43% لديهم شكوك جدية حول صدق الانتخابات وانفتاحها أو كليهما، لفت الاستطلاع إلى أن الجمهوريين والمستقلين أكثر تشككاً من الديمقراطيين بشأن شرعية الانتخابات المقبلة.
ورغم مرور أكثر من 3 سنوات ومحاولات السلطات المحلية والولائية مراراً لدحض نظريات المؤامرة وإثبات أن الانتخابات تُجرى بطريقة مهنية وجديرة بالثقة، لم يتغير الكثير من موقف الجمهوريين الذين قالوا إن بايدن فاز بسبب انتخابات “مزورة”.
وأرجع فارنسورث ذلك إلى أن الأدلة “لا تهم العديد من أنصار ترمب، الذين يصر الكثيرون منهم، دون دليل، على أن عملية التصويت في هذا البلد فاسدة إذا لم يفز مرشحهم”.
في عام 1968، اتُهم المرشح الجمهوري ريتشارد نيكسون بالتآمر لعرقلة محادثات السلام التي أجراها ليندون جونسون في فيتنام.
ومن أجل تعزيز فرصه في الفوز بالانتخابات، تواصلت حملة نيكسون مع حكومة فيتنام الجنوبية وشجعتهم على عدم المشاركة في محادثات السلام، ما أضر بحظوظ منافسه الديمقراطي هيوبرت همفري.
وكان نيكسون، باعتباره مرشحاً جمهورياً، قد اقتنع بأن جونسون، الديمقراطي الذي قرر عدم الترشح لإعادة انتخابه، حاول عمداً تخريب حملته من خلال جهود سلام ذات دوافع سياسية تهدف في الأساس إلى تعزيز ترشيح نائبه، هيوبرت همفري.
وفي انتخابات العام 2000 بين جورج بوش الابن وآل جور، شكك الكثيرون في دقة فرز الأصوات في فلوريدا، إذ تم اتهام المحكمة العليا، التي أوقفت إعادة الفرز، بأنها ساهمت في “سرقة” الانتخابات لصالح بوش.
وأثار قرار المحكمة، تسليم السلطة لبوش بأغلبية خمسة أصوات مقابل أربعة، جدلاً واتهامات من قبل الديمقراطيين بسرقة الانتخابات لصالح بوش، خاصة أن الخمس قضاة كانوا مرشحين من قبل رؤساء جمهوريين، رغم أنه لا يوجد دليل موثوق على أن تمديد إعادة الفرز لفترة أطول كان ليغير النتيجة في فلوريدا لو استكمل إعادة الفرز.
وخاضت حملتا جور وبوش معركة في المحاكم لمدة 36 يوماً، وبعد السماح بفرز الأصوات يدوياً، أمرت المحكمة العليا في فلوريدا بإعادة فرز الأصوات يدوياً على مستوى الولاية.
وفي اليوم التالي، استأنف فريق بوش القرار أمام المحكمة العليا الأميركية، التي أوقفت إعادة الفرز، لأنها سارعت إلى التوصل لقرار بحلول 12 ديسمبر، وهو الموعد الذي كان على فلوريدا أن تقرر فيه من سينتخبون، فجاء قرار المحكمة العليا ليمنح فلوريدا والبيت الأبيض إلى بوش.
وقال أستاذ العلوم السياسية وعضو الأكاديمية الفخرية في جامعة أوهايو بول بيك، لـ”الشرق”، إن نظريات المؤامرة غالباً ما تظهر وتؤثر بشكل كبير على العملية الانتخابية في أوقات الانقسام السياسي أو عندما تكون النتائج متقاربة ومثيرة للجدل.
وأشار بيك إلى أن المؤامرات الانتخابية والترويج لها قد يؤثر على ثقة الناخبين في العملية الديمقراطية، وبالتالي قد يحجموا عن التصويت على اعتبار أنها انتخابات محسومة سلفاً، مضيفاً أن المرشحين وأنصارهم قد يستخدموا نظريات المؤامرة كأداة دعائية للتأثير على الرأي العام.
وأشار فارنسورث إلى أن ترمب “ما زال يستخدم روايته بشأن تزوير انتخابات 2020، خلال حملته الرئاسية الحالية كأداة لشد انتباه قاعدته المؤيدة والحفاظ على ولائهم له”، ومع ذلك، يؤكد فارنسورث أن هذا النهج لا يبدو مفيداً لجذب الناخبين المترددين.
وأضاف أنه بالنسبة للمسؤولين الجمهوريين المنتخبين الذين يرفضون رواية ترمب حول انتخابات 2020، فسيواجهون تحديات كبيرة في المستقبل، إذا حاولوا البقاء في مناصبهم، حيث سيتعرضون لمنافسين في الانتخابات التمهيدية يدعمون وجهة نظر ترمب حول تلك الانتخابات، بمعنى أنهم سيواجهون تحديات قوية من داخل الحزب.
Saturday concludes the Hawaii primary, which has been conducted largely by mail.
Election Day Voter Service Centers are open until 7:00 PM local time, which is also the deadline for all ballots to be received. As the state does not observe Daylight Saving Time, that’s 1:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.
We’ve highlighted a few races on this page. Full Hawaii Results >>
Democrat Sen. Mazie Hirono is running for a third term. She has drawn two minor challengers, including Ron Curtis, who previously ran for office as a Republican. Curtis was Hirono’s opponent in 2018, and the 2020 nominee in the first congressional district.
Six are seeking the GOP nomination. The most notable is former state Rep. Bob McDermott, who was the party’s nominee for the state’s other Senate seat in 2022. He lost by a 71% to 26% margin to Sen. Brian Schatz.
Whoever advances from this primary will likely not fare much better against the incumbent in November.
Democratic Reps. Ed Case (HI-01) and Jill Tokuda (HI-02) should cruise to reelection in November. The GOP primaries in both districts are uncontested.
Case faces a nominal primary challenge.
Democrats hold overwhelming control of both branches. In the State Senate, there are 23 Democrats and two Republicans. Twelve of the seats are up for election this year.
In the State House of Representatives, Democrats have a 44-6 advantage. There is one vacancy. All 51 seats are up this year.
All State Legislative Primaries >>
State House District 25 (Democratic)
House Speaker Scott Saiki faces a challenge from community activist Kim Coco Iwamoto. This is the third time the two have faced off in a primary. Saiki narrowly won both times.
The Honolulu Civil Beat details the importance of this primary. They note that “More than any other local contest this season, [this primary race] has the potential to redistribute political power in Hawaii and redirect the Legislature.”
Politically, Iwamoto is challenging Saiki from the left.
Honolulu is the nation’s 55th largest city – based on 2023 Census Bureau estimates – with a population of about 342,000.
Independent Mayor Rick Biangiardi is seeking a second four-year term. He has drawn three challengers on the nonpartisan ballot, but is expected to be reelected. If Biangiardi doesn’t get a majority, there will be a top-two runoff coinciding with the November 5 general election.
