Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to the media before boarding Air Force Two to depart for Michigan, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S. October 28, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday dismissed as “nonsense” some remarks spouted at Donald Trump‘s campaign rally in New York City a day earlier, which included a racist joke by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico.
“I’m very proud to have the support of both Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez and others, who were supporting me before that nonsense last night at Madison Square Garden,” the Democratic presidential nominee told reporters.
Superstar singers Bad Bunny and Lopez, who are Puerto Rican, highlighted Harris’ support for Puerto Rico in social media posts after Hinchliffe took a swipe at the U.S. territory.
The vice president released a plan Sunday to “build an opportunity economy for Puerto Rico” by creating a task force to foster economic growth on the island.
Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe speaks during a rally for Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, in New York, U.S., October 27, 2024.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
On Monday, Harris said, “I think last night, Donald Trump’s event in Madison Square Garden really highlighted a point that I’ve been making throughout this campaign.”
“He is focused and actually fixated on his grievances, on himself and on dividing our country. And it is not in any way something that will strengthen the American family, the American worker,” “Harris said.
“It is absolutely something that is intended to and is fanning the fuel of trying to divide us.”
Read more CNBC politics coverage
Hinchcliffe spoke to the crowd at the Garden as one of the rally’s warmup acts, well before Trump took the stage.
“There’s a lot going on. I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Hinchcliffe said.
The comedian also said: “These Latinos, they love making babies, too. Just know that they do.”
“There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country,” he added.
Hinchcliffe made other racist cracks during his performance.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, in a radio interview on Monday morning, noted that his state is “the proud home to about a half a million Puerto Ricans.”
Pennsylvania is a key swing state in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump campaign senior advisor Danielle Alvarez said in a statement on Hinchcliffe’s comment about Puerto Rico, “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” according to NBC News.
The state’s top Democratic legal official says the giveaway in states likely to decide the US election is a ‘scam’.
A $1m-a-day voter sweepstakes operated by a political group established by billionaire Elon Musk can continue, a judge in the state of Pennsylvania has ruled.
Musk’s giveaway has widely been seen by many as an unsubtle attempt to secure extra votes for Republican candidate Donald Trump, who Musk has thrown his vocal and financial support behind.
Musk has given $75m to America PAC, a political action committee that has been funding various Republican candidates, including former President Trump.
Winners ‘not chosen by chance’
The Tesla CEO has already gifted $16m to registered swing-state voters who qualified for the giveaway by signing his political petition.
Pennsylvania‘s Common Pleas Court Judge Angelo Foglietta’s decision on Monday came after a surprising day of testimony in a state court in which Musk’s aides acknowledged hand-picking the winners of the contest based on who would be the best spokespeople for his super PAC’s agenda.
Previously, the 53-year-old billionaire had claimed the winners would be chosen at random.
District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, called the process a scam “designed to actually influence a national election” and asked that it be shut down.
As it was, the judge ruled in favour of Musk and his America PAC.
Musk’s lawyer, Chris Gober, said the final two recipients before the presidential election would be announced in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.
“The $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance,” said Gober.
“We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.”
‘They were scammed’
Chris Young, the director and treasurer of America PAC, testified that the recipients were vetted ahead of time, to “feel out their personality, [and] make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.
Musk’s lawyers, defending the effort, called it “core political speech” given that participants were asked to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.
More than 1 million people from the seven battleground states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan – have registered for the sweepstakes by signing a petition saying they support the right to free speech and to bear arms, the first two amendments to the US Constitution.
District Attorney Krasner has questioned how the PAC might use their data, which it will have on hand well past the election.
“They were scammed for their information,” Krasner said. “It has almost unlimited use.”
ALLENTOWN, Pa. (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump made their final pitches to voters Monday in the same parts of Pennsylvania at roughly the same time, focusing on the state that could make or break their chances during the last full day of the presidential campaign.
“Over the past four years, Americans have suffered one catastrophic failure, betrayal and humiliation after another,” said the Republican nominee, sounding raspy yet energetic after speaking for hours each day.
“We do not have to settle for weakness, incompetence, decline and decay,” he went on. “With your vote tomorrow, we can fix every single problem our country faces and lead America, and indeed the while world, to new heights of glory.”
AP correspondent Norman Hall reports on Donald Trump’s first campaign stop of the day, in North Carolina, in his final campaign push through key states.
The crowd exploded in cheers when the Republican nominee said the country should tell Harris, “You’re fired,” his catchphrase from “The Apprentice,” the reality television show that made him a nationally recognized star.
Trump started Monday in North Carolina and he’s scheduled to hold his last rally of the election in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he concluded his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
Harris, the Democratic nominee, is spending all of Monday in Pennsylvania, and she was en route to Pittsburgh while Trump was speaking there. She’s holding her final rally in Philadelphia later in the evening.
“This is it,” Harris said in Pittsburgh in front of the Carrie Furnaces, a historic steel facility that nodded to the city’s industrial legacy. “Tomorrow is Election Day and the momentum is on our side.”
“We must finish strong,” she added. “Make no mistake, we will win.”
With 19 Electoral College votes, the state is the biggest prize of any battleground. A Trump victory there would puncture the Democrats’ “blue wall” and make it harder for Harris to win the necessary 270 votes.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole ball of wax,” Trump said during an event in Reading, in the state’s southeast corner.
Both candidates visited the area, which is home to thousands of Latinos, including a sizable Puerto Rican population. Harris and her allies have repeatedly hit Trump for a comedian’s dig at Puerto Rico during the former president’s marquee Madison Square Garden event. The comedian, Tony Hinchcliffe, referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”
“It was absurd,” said German Vega, a Dominican American who lives in Reading and became a U.S. citizen in 2015. “It bothered so many people — even many Republicans. It wasn’t right, and I feel that Trump should have apologized to Latinos.”
But Emilio Feliciano, 43, waited outside Reading’s Santander Arena for a chance to take a photo of Trump’s motorcade. He dismissed the comments about Puerto Rico despite his family being Puerto Rican, saying he cares about the economy and that’s why he will vote for Trump.
With one day until the election, both presidential candidates are making their final pitches to voters. AP correspondent Julie Walker reports.
“Is the border going to be safe? Are you going to keep crime down? That’s what I care about,” he said.
What to know about the 2024 Election
Harris told the crowd, “I stand here proud of my long-standing commitment to Puerto Rico and her people.”
“And I will be a president for all Americans,” she said, adding that “momentum is on our side. Can you feel it?”
Trump, meanwhile, stuck to talking about his proposed crackdown on immigration. He called to the stage Patty Morin, the mother of 37-year-old Rachel Morin, who was found dead a day after she went missing during a trip to go hiking. Officials say the suspect in her death, Victor Antonio Martinez Hernandez, entered the U.S. illegally after allegedly killing a woman in his home country of El Salvador.
About 77 million Americans have voted early. A victory by either side would be unprecedented.
Trump winning would make him the first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, after his hush-money trial in New York. He will gain the power to end other federal investigations pending against him. Trump would also become only the second president in history to win nonconsecutive White House terms, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.
Harris is vying to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to reach the Oval Office — four years after she broke the same barriers in national office by becoming President Joe Biden’s second in command.
Heading into Monday, Harris has mostly stopped mentioning Trump by name, calling him instead “the other guy.” She is promising to solve problems and seek consensus.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at J.S. Dorton Arena, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024, in Raleigh, N.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said on a call with reporters that not saying Trump’s name was deliberate because voters “want to see in their leader an optimistic, hopeful, patriotic vision for the future.”
Harris also offered some insights into her personal formation as a politician that she doesn’t often divulge. In Scranton, she talked about once being a longshot while running for San Francisco district attorney in 2002 and how she “used to campaign with my ironing board.”
“I’d walk to the front of the grocery store, outside, and I would stand up my ironing board because, you see, an ironing board makes a really great standing desk,” the vice president said, recalling how she would tape her posters to the outside of the board, fill the top with flyers and “require people to talk to me as they walked in and out.”
Attendees holding the flag of Puerto Rico cheer as Allentown, Pa. Mayor Matt Tuerk speaks during a campaign rally for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in Memorial Hall at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa., Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
In Allentown, Harris rallied with rapper Fat Joe. She then made her own visit to Reading after Trump’s rally had concluded, visiting Old San Juan Cafe, a Puerto Rican restaurant, with Ocasio-Cortez. Both Fat Joe, whose real name is Joseph Cartagena, and Ocasio-Cortez are of Puerto Rican heritage.
Supporters chanted “Sí se puede” and “Kamala” as the vice president’s motorcade pulled up. Once inside, Harris chatted with some diners, even mixing in “Gracias” and a few Spanish words. The vice president later ordered cassava, yellow rice and pork, saying, “I’m very hungry” as she noted that she’s been too busy campaigning to find time for many meals.
Harris did some of her own canvassing afterward, stopping at two homes in Reading while flanked by campaign volunteers.
“It’s the day before the election and I just wanted to come by and say I hope to earn your vote,” she said at one house.
The woman replied, “You already got my vote” and said her husband would be casting his ballot the next day.
Standing in line for Harris’ Allentown rally, 54-year-old Ron Kessler, an Air Force veteran and Republican-turned-Democrat, said he planned to vote for just the second time in his life. Kessler said that, for a long time, he didn’t vote, thinking the country “would vote for the correct candidate.”
But “now that I’m older and much more wiser, I believe it’s important, it’s my civic duty. And it’s important that I vote for myself and I vote for the democracy and the country.”
___
Superville reported from Scranton, Pennsylvania. Barrow reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Makiya Seminera in Raleigh, North Carolina, and Zeke Miller, Will Weissert and Michelle L. Price in Washington contributed to this report.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held competing rallies across Pennsylvania on Monday, making their final pitches in the key swing state as polls indicate an extremely close contest.
The two candidates laid out starkly contrasting visions for America’s future on the eve of election day. Trump rambled through dark and dystopian speeches painting migrants as dangerous criminals while also launching personal attacks on a number of high-profile Democratic women. Harris delivered a more positive closing argument, shifting focus away from the threat posed by the ex-president, who is not mentioned in her final ad, and insisting “we all have so much more in common than what separates us”.
Trump, at times appearing hoarse and low-energy, scheduled four rallies on Monday: one in Raleigh, North Carolina, two in Pennsylvania and a late-evening event in Grand Rapids, Michigan. He has continued to boast about his crowd sizes, but reports suggest some of his final events have been plagued by empty seats and early departures from audience members during his lengthy, meandering speeches.
Harris stayed in Pennsylvania with several rallies and events in the critical state that could decide the election. Lady Gaga, Oprah Winfrey, Ricky Martin and other celebrities were slated to appear at her final event at the Philadelphia Museum of Art, where the famous steps from the Rocky movie were lit up blue and a large “President for All” banner was displayed.
As the Harris campaign and its surrogates have continued to appeal to female voters, Trump revived familiar insults against notable women, sometimes with violent language.
In North Carolina, he attacked former first lady Michelle Obama, saying: “She hit me the other day. I was going to say to my people, am I allowed to hit her now? They said, take it easy, sir.” He also suggested the Democratic congresswoman Nancy Pelosi should have been jailed for ripping up a copy of his 2020 State of the Union address: “She’s a bad, sick woman, she’s crazy as a bedbug.”
And Trump repeated his line that Harris is a “low IQ individual”, followed by an incoherent tangent seemingly imagining her struggling to sleep: “I don’t want to have her say, You know, I had an idea last night while I was sleeping, turning, tossing, sweating,” he said, without finishing the sentence.
Trump leaned into his taunts as he continues to face scrutiny over his recent comment suggesting that Liz Cheney, the former GOP congresswoman and a Harris supporter, should face rifles “shooting at her”. Appearing on ABC’s The View on Monday, Cheney said, “Women are going to save the day” on Tuesday.
In North Carolina, Trump also threatened the newly elected president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, suggesting he would impose tariffs on all Mexican goods “if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs” – part of his trade proposals that economists have warned could significantly raise costs for US consumers.
Later in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump fantasized about wrestlers who could “take the migrants in a fight”. He repeated racist tropes about immigrants and affirmed his threat of unprecedented mass deportations, saying Tuesday would be “liberation day”. He falsely suggested Democrats support “open borders” so undocumented people can fraudulently vote.
He later spoke of the boxer Mike Tyson and seemingly in response to a comment from an audience member, suggested Tyson take on the vice-president: “That guy could fight … Put Mike in the ring with Kamala.”
Trump in Raleigh, North Carolina. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters
At around the same time, Harris was rallying in Allentown, roughly 40 miles away, critiquing Trumpism without directly naming her opponent: “America is ready for a new way forward, where we see our fellow American not as an enemy but as a neighbor. We are ready for a president who understands that the true measure of the strength of the leader is not based on who you beat down. It is based on who you lift up.”
Later, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, earned loud applause at a rally in Georgia, when he attacked Harris by bringing up Joe Biden’s recent gaffe, in which he appeared to call Trump supporters “garbage”.
“In two days, we are going to take out the trash in Washington DC, and the trash is named is Kamala Harris,” said the Ohio senator, in a remark that was condemned by Democrats and pundits.
The back-and-forth trash talking originated with a comedian’s racist joke at Trump’s recent New York rally, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”, a comment that many Harris surrogates cited on Monday while appealing to Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.
The vice-president also stopped at a Puerto Rican restaurant with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and directly joined canvassing in a residential area in Reading, telling voters at one home: “I wanted to go door-knocking!”
By his evening rally in Pittsburgh, Trump returned to his crowd size obsession, making false claims about low turnout at Harris’s nearby rally that hadn’t yet begun. He then mocked Beyoncé, who rallied for Harris in Texas: “Everyone’s expecting a couple songs and there were no songs. There was no happiness.” He added, “We don’t need a star. I never had a star.”
The final scramble to turn out voters comes as Trump continues to make false claims about voter fraud, raising fears about how he might challenge the results if Harris wins. In a call with reporters on Monday, the Harris campaign said it was prepared to combat any efforts by Trump to discredit the outcome.
“We have hundreds of lawyers across the country ready to protect election results against any challenge that Trump might bring,” said Dana Remus, a senior campaign adviser and outside counsel. “This will not be the fastest process, but the law and the facts are on our side.”
Legal challenges were designed to undermine faith in the electoral process, she added: “Keep in mind that the volume of cases does not equate to a volume of legitimate concerns. In fact, it just shows how desperate they’re becoming.”
There are also growing fears that political violence will escalate on election day and beyond, as misinformation and conspiracy theories are expected to spread while counting is under way. Election officials in one Nevada county said on Monday that threats have become so severe that polling places have installed “panic buttons” to automatically call 911 in emergencies.
At Trump’s Pittsburgh rally, Michael Barringer, a 55-year-old coalminer, expressed his disdain for undocumented immigrants in explaining his support for Trump: “You’ve got millions and millions of illegal aliens crossing the border. They don’t speak English. They don’t say a pledge allegiance to the flag. They freeload off of us. I’m all for legal immigration, but not coming across the border illegally, taking American jobs.”
Elizabeth Slaby, 81, was the first in line at Harris’s Allentown rally, arriving at about 6am. She said she was a registered Republican for more than 50 years, but changed her registration after the January 6 attack: “I never thought I’d see a woman president and now I’m so, so excited.”
Lauren Gambino, Sam Levine and David Smith contributed reporting
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:
“538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty about how the rest of the election could impact the state of the race. With 75 days to go, we think anything from a clear Trump victory to a clear Harris win is possible (while a close win either way is most likely).”
In the image below, the Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).
The map updates at 5:00 PM Eastern Time daily. Click the image for an interactive version.
قالت وكالة الفضاء الروسية (روسكوسموس) إن روسيا أطلقت صاروخا من طراز سويوز في ساعة مبكرة من صباح اليوم الثلاثاء محملا بقمرين صناعيين مصممين لمراقبة الطقس حول الأرض و53 قمرا صناعيا صغيرا، بما في ذلك قمران إيرانيان.
وذكرت الوكالة أن مركبة الإطلاق «سويوز 2.1»، التي انطلقت من قاعدة فوستوتشني الفضائية الروسية، حملت قمرين صناعيين من طراز أيونوسفيرا-إم، اللذين سيصبحان جزءا من نظام مراقبة الغلاف الأيوني للأرض من الفضاء. وتقع طبقة الأيونوسفير، حيث يلتقي الغلاف الجوي للأرض بالفضاء، على ارتفاع يتراوح بين 80 إلى 644 كيلومترا تقريبا فوق سطح الأرض، وفقا للمعلومات الواردة على موقع إدارة الطيران والفضاء الأمريكية (ناسا) على الإنترنت.
ويبلغ وزن كل قمر صناعي من طراز «أيونوسفيرا-إم 430» كيلوغراما ويقع مداره على ارتفاع 820 كيلومترا، وفقا لوكالة إنترفاكس للأنباء. وسيتضمن النظام أربعة أقمار صناعية من طراز «أيونوسفيرا-إم».
ومن بين الأقمار الصناعية الصغيرة البالغ عددها 53 قمرا، قمران صناعيان إيرانيان هما كوثر، المخصص للتصوير عالي الدقة، وهدهد، وهو قمر صناعي صغير للاتصالات.
في انتخابات رئاسية أميركية شديدة التنافسية مثل انتخابات 2024، يُصبح الطريق إلى البيت الأبيض محفوفاً بالمخاطر والمفاجآت، خاصة وأن حسابات المجمع الانتخابي التي تملك الكلمة النهائية، قد تختلف عن حسابات التصويت الشعبي، مثلما حدث في انتخابات 2016، حين حصلت هيلاري كلينتون على أغلبية أصوات الناخبين، وخسرت المجمع الانتخابي، فوصل دونالد ترمب إلى السلطة.
وللوصول إلى البيت الأبيض يتعين على الرئيس السابق والمرشح الجمهوري دونالد ترمب ونائبة الرئيس والمرشحة الديمقراطية كامالا هاريس الحصول على 270 من أصوات المجمع الانتخابي الذي يتكون من 538 صوتاً، موزعة على الولايات الخمسين، ومقاطعة كولومبيا (العاصمة واشنطن DC).
وبين 50 ولاية مقسمة سياسياً، تتأرجح 7 ولايات بين الحزبين الديمقراطي والجمهوري وتملك مجتمعة 93 صوتاً بالمجمع الانتخابي، وتتركز الأنظار وأموال الدعاية عليها لدورها الحاسم في تحديد الفائز، وهي ميشيجان، وبنسلفانيا، وويسكونسن، والمعروفة بولايات الجدار الأزرق، وولايات “حزام الشمس“: نيفادا، وأريزونا، جورجيا، ونورث كارولاينا.
وتتوزع 43 ولاية بين الديمقراطيين والجمهوريين، وهي ولايات شبه محسومة لدرجة أن أصواتها بالمجمع الانتخابي تكاد تضاف إلى المرشح المعروف بأنها تميل له، فور إغلاق صناديق الاقتراع، فكاليفورنيا على سبيل المثال لن تنتظر فرز أصواتها بالكامل قبل منح أصواتها الـ54 لهاريس، وكذلك، نيويورك، بينما ولايات مثل كنتاكي وساوث كارولاينا معروف أنها تذهب للجمهوريين فستضاف أصواتها لترمب.
كيف توزع أصوات المجمع الانتخابي؟
تعتمد 48 ولاية على نظام الفائز يحصل على الكل، بمعني أن الفائز بأغلبية أصوات الناخبين يحصل على كافة أصوات الولاية بالمجمع الانتخابي، ولكن نبراسكا التي تميل للجمهوريين وولاية مين التي تميل للديمقراطيين يعتمدان نظاماً هجيناً، يمنح الأصوات بناءً على تصويت كل مقاطعة.
وتقسم نبراسكا أصواتها الـ5 بالمجمع الانتخابي على النحو التالي: صوتان للفائز بأغلبية أصوات الناخبين في الولاية، وتمنح الـ3 أصوات الأخرى على أساس الفائز في مقاطعات نبراسكا الـ3 في مجلس النواب. وينتظر أن تحصل هاريس على صوت مقاطعة أوماها التي باتت تعرف بالنقطة الزرقاء في الولاية.
أمام ولاية مين فتوزع أصواتها الـ4 كالتالي: صوتان للفائز بأغلبية أصوات الناخبين في الولاية، وصوتان يوزعان بناءً على تصويت مقاطعتي الولاية الممثلتين في الكونجرس. وقد يحصل ترمب على أحد أصوات الولاية.
وسينصب التركيز ليلة الانتخابات، على الولايات السبع المتأرجحة التي ستحسم النتيجة، وهناك مسارات مختلفة لهاريس وترمب للفوز بالمجمع الانتخابي، بناءً على أوزان تلك الولايات وعدد الأصوات التي راكماها من ولاياتهم المحسومة سلفاً.
ومع اختلاف الأوزان الانتخابية للولايات، لا يحتاج المرشح الرئاسي إلى الفوز بكل الولايات المتأرجحة لتحقيق الـ270 صوتاً اللازمة للفوز بالبيت الأبيض.
مسارات هاريس للوصول إلى البيت الأبيض
ومن المتوقع أن تحصل هاريس على 226 صوتاً انتخابياً على الأقل من 19 ولاية ومنطقة كولومبيا، مع مساهمات كبيرة من كاليفورنيا (54)، ونيويورك (28)، وإلينوي (19)، فيما يمثل المسار الأكثر ترجيحاً لهاريس للفوز بالانتخابات، هو الفوز بولايات الجدار الأزرق الثلاث في الغرب الأوسط: ميشيجان، وبنسلفانيا، وويسكونسن، دون حدوث أي مفاجآت.
وكانت هذه الولايات تقليدياً، تميل لصالح الديمقراطيين، الذين فازوا بها في 7 من آخر 8 انتخابات رئاسية منذ عام 1992، باستثناء 2016 عندما حقق دونالد ترمب فوزاً مفاجئاً فيها على منافسته الديمقراطية هيلاري كلينتون.
واستعاد الرئيس جو بايدن هذه الولايات في 2020، وفي حالة حفاظ هاريس عليها تحصل على 44 صوتاً، “ميشيجان 15 صوت، بنسلفانيا 19، وويسكنسن 10″، وهي عدد الأصوات التي تحتاجها بالضبط، لإضافتها إلى الـ226 صوتاً من الولايات الديمقراطية، حتى يصبح المجموع 270 صوتاً.
فما هي مسارات فوز هاريس بالانتخابات الرئاسية؟
مسارات فوز هاريس بالانتخابات الرئاسية الأميركية
الطريق الأكثر ترجيحاً للوصول إلى البيت الأبيض بالنسبة لهاريس هو الفوز بولايات الجدار الأزرق الثلاث في الغرب الأوسط: ميشيجان (15 صوتاً)، وبنسلفانيا (19 صوتاً)، وويسكونسن (10 أصوات)، والدائرة الانتخابية الوحيدة في أوماها بولاية نبراسكا، ما يجعل هاريس تصل إلى 270 بالضبط دون الحاجة إلى الفوز بأي من ولايات حزام الشمس المتأرجحة.
إذا خسرت هاريس إحدى الولايات (ميشيجان 15 أو بنسلفانيا 19 أو ويسكونسن 10) يمكنها التعويض في جورجيا أو نورث كارولاينا (16)، وكلاهما متأرجحتان وشديدتا التنافسية. كما يمكن لهاريس الفوز بأريزونا (11) بدلاً عن ويسكونسن (10).
إذا خسرت هاريس في ويسكونسن (10) أو ميشيجان (15)، فقد تستبدل أصواتهما الانتخابية الـ10 أو الـ15 على التوالي بأصوات نورث كارولاينا الـ16 أو جورجيا الـ16، أو باكتساح غربي لأريزونا الـ11 بدلاً من ويسكونسن الـ10، أو أريزونا (11) ونيفادا (6) بدلاً من ميشيجان 15.
إذا خسرت هاريس الجدار الأزرق بالكامل، مثل هيلاري كلينتون في 2016، فلا يزال بإمكانها الفوز من خلال الحصول على جميع ولايات حزام الشمس. وهذا من شأنه أن يجعلها تحصل على 275 صوتاً انتخابياً.
إذا فازت هاريس بولايات حزام الصدأ (بنسلفانيا (19)، وميشيجان (15)، وويسكونسن 10) بينما فاز ترمب بولايات حزام الشمس (نيفادا 6 وأريزونا 11 وجورجيا 16 ونورث كارولاينا 16)، فستفوز هاريس بأقل عدد ممكن من الأصوات الانتخابية، 270 صوتاً مقابل 268 صوتاً لترمب.
إذا فازت هاريس بجميع ولايات حزام الشمس، فستحصل على 319 صوتاً انتخابياً، وهو أكبر عدد من الأصوات لمرشح رئاسي منذ فوز الرئيس أوباما بإعادة انتخابه في عام 2012. وسيكون ترمب خلفها بفارق 100 صوت بالضبط عند 219.
وتمثل بنسلفانيا أهم ولاية، بامتلاكها أكبر أصوات الولايات المتأرجحة “19 صوتاً”، ويعتبر الاحتفاظ ببنسلفانيا أساسياً لهاريس. وإذا خسرت هاريس بنسلفانيا، فعليها اتخاذ مسار صعب من خلال جورجيا “16” أو نورث كارولاينا “16” إضافة إلى نيفادا (6) أو أريزونا (11).
أو يمكنها الفوز نظرياً بشكل مريح من خلال الاستحواذ على نورث كارولاينا (16) وجورجيا (16) معاً. لكن ذلك المسار، حتى اللحظة، صعب لهاريس بسبب تفوق ترمب عليها في الولايتين، وفقا لاستطلاعات الرأي، وإن كان ذلك ضمن هامش الخطأ.
مسارات ترمب للوصول إلى البيت الأبيض
من المتوقع أن يحصل الجمهوريون على 219 صوتاً انتخابياً على الأقل من 24 ولاية على مستوى البلاد، مع مساهمات كبيرة من تكساس (40) وفلوريدا (30) وأوهايو (17).
وللوصول إلى 270 صوتاً انتخابياً، سيحتاج ترمب إلى 51 صوتاً على الأقل من أصل 93 صوتاً.
وخسر ترمب انتخابات 2020 حين لم يفز بأي ولاية من ولايات الجدار الأزرق أو حزام الشمس، وفاز بنورث كارولاينا فقط. وفاز في 2016 حين فاز بولايات الجدار الأزرق كلها. ويحتاج ترمب إلى اختراق الجدار الأزرق في 2024 للوصول إلى البيت الأبيض.
إذا فاز ترمب بولاية بنسلفانيا (19 صوتاً)، الولاية الرئيسية في ولايات الجدار الأزرق، والتي أنفقت حملته فيها ملايين الدولارات، إضافة إلى ولايات نورث كارولاينا (16) وجورجيا (16)، فسوف يحصل على 270 صوت ما يمكنه من الفوز.
وإذا فاز ترمب مثلما حدث في 2016 بجميع ولايات الجدار الأزرق “بنسلفانيا، وميشيجان، وويسكونسن” فقد يفوز بالبيت الأبيض، حتى لو خسر نورث كارولاينا وجورجيا ونيفادا. لكنه في هذا المسار سيحتاج، فقط، إلى الفوز أيضاً بأريزونا بجانب ولايات الجدار الأزرق. وقد يكون ذلك السيناريو قابلاً للتطبيق.
مسارات فوز ترمب بالبيت الأبيض
إذا فاز ترمب في بنسلفانيا (19) ونورث كارولاينا (16) وجورجيا (16)، فسوف يحصل على 270 صوتاً انتخابياً بالضبط، حتى بدون أي من الأصوات الأخرى، وبالتالي يفوز بالرئاسة.
من الصعب للغاية أن يفوز ترمب دون الحصول على ولاية واحدة على الأقل من ولايات الجدار الأزرق.
إذا فاز ترمب مثلما حدث في 2016 بجميع ولايات الجدار الأزرق “بنسلفانيا (19)، وميشيجان (15)، وويسكونسن (10)” فقد يفوز بالبيت الأبيض، حتى لو خسر نورث كارولاينا (16) وجورجيا (16) ونيفادا (6). لكنه في هذا المسار سيحتاج، فقط، إلى الفوز أيضاً بأريزونا (11) بجانب ولايات الجدار الأزرق. وقد يكون ذلك السيناريو قابلاً للتطبيق.
فاز ترمب بولايات ويسكونسن وميشيجان وبنسلفانيا في عام 2016، وإذا اكتسحها مرة أخرى، فقد يفوز حتى لو خسر نورث كارولاينا وجورجيا ونيفادا. في هذا السيناريو، لن يكون عليه سوى الفوز بولاية أريزونا من ولايات حزام الشمس المتأرجحة.
إذا فاز بولايتي نورث كارولاينا (16) وجورجيا (16) إلى جانب الولاية التالية الأكثر قيمة انتخابياً، ميشيجان (15)، فسوف يحتاج إلى الفوز بولاية واحدة فقط من أريزونا (11) أو ويسكونسن (10) أو نيفادا (6) للفوز بالبيت الأبيض.
يدلي عشرات الملايين من الأميركيين، اليوم، بأصواتهم لتُضاف إلى قرابة 77 مليوناً آخرين اقترعوا باكراً في انتخابات تاريخية، لاختيار الرئيس السابع والأربعين للولايات المتحدة، بين الديمقراطية نائبة الرئيس كامالا هاريس والجمهوري الرئيس السابق دونالد ترمب.
ووسط انقسام حادّ وتقارب غير مسبوق في الاستطلاعات، يعوّل المرشّحان على إقبال واسع على التصويت. فتُعوّل هاريس على مشاركة كبيرة من النساء وأصحاب الشهادات العالية، والأقليات العرقية، بينما يُحفّز ترمب أنصاره من الشباب البيض، والعمال والمحافظين للإدلاء بأصواتهم بكثافة.
وفي محاولة لطمأنة الأميركيين بأن أصواتهم ستكون محمية، وضعت السلطات خططاً أمنية لا سابق لها لمقاومة العنف وغيره من السيناريوهات التي يمكن أن تعكر صفو الانتخابات، وما قد يليها من اضطرابات. ووضعت وكالات تنفيذ القانون مع المستجيبين الأوائل في حالة تأهب قصوى، بما في ذلك نشر الحرس الوطني لمنع حصول أي اضطرابات.
