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  • Secondary Presidential Battlegrounds – 270toWin

    Secondary Presidential Battlegrounds – 270toWin

    By 270toWin Staff

    November 5, 2024, 5:53 PM ET

    While most of the focus has been on the seven incredibly competitive battleground states, these other locations – nine states and two congressional districts – are worth keeping an eye on. These are all rated as ‘Likely’ for Trump or Harris in the final Consensus Electoral Map. However, for the most part, polling margins are in the mid-to-high single digits. For more results, visit the Live Electoral College Map >.

    These are ordered by final poll closing time and state.

    All times Eastern (ET). Where states span multiple time zones, no winner will be projected before all polls have closed. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.

    7:00 PM Eastern

    Virginia – 13 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 49.2%, Trump 43.4% (D + 5.8%)

    7:30 PM Eastern

    Ohio – 17 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Trump Trump 52%, Harris 44.3% (R + 7.7%)

    8:00 PM Eastern

    Florida – 30 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Trump Trump 51.1%, Harris 44.9% (R + 6.2%)

    Maine – Two Statewide Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 50.3%, Trump 41.7% (D + 8.6%)

    Maine District 2 – One Electoral Vote





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Trump Trump 48.7%, Harris 42.7% (R + 6%)

    New Hampshire – Four Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 50.5%, Trump 45.5% (D + 5%)

    Iowa – 6 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Trump Trump 50%, Harris 45.3% (R + 4.7%)

    Minnesota – 10 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 49.8%, Trump 43.6% (D + 6.2%)

    Nebraska District 2 – One Electoral Vote





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 53%, Trump 43% (D + 10%)

    New Mexico – Five Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Harris Harris 49.8%, Trump 43.8% (D + 6%)

    Texas – 40 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Likely Trump Trump 51.8%, Harris 44.4% (R + 7.4%)

  • The Seven Presidential Battlegrounds – 270toWin

    The Seven Presidential Battlegrounds – 270toWin

    Seven states – worth 93 electoral votes in 2024 – have dominated this presidential election cycle seemingly from the beginning. In the final Consensus Electoral Map, six of these seven states remain toss-ups. 

    The polls have largely agreed as well, with neither candidate separated by more than 2% in any of these seven states. That said, keep in mind that polling errors are often correlated. Given that all of these states are within a normal polling error, it is quite possible that either Harris or Trump could end up winning most or all of them.

    On this page you will find live results for these battleground states. We’ve divided them into three geographic groups which – conveniently – also closely corresponds with when the polls close in those states. For more results, visit the Live Electoral College Map >.

    All times Eastern (ET). Where states span multiple time zones, no winner will be projected before all polls have closed. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.

    Sun Belt – East

    Georgia – 16 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Trump 48.7%, Harris 47.5% (R + 1.2%)

    Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.

    North Carolina – 16 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Trump 48.6%, Harris 47.3% (R + 1.3%)

    Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

    Rust Belt

    Pennsylvania – 19 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Trump 48.2%, Harris 48.2% (TIE)

    Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

    Michigan – 15 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Harris 48.6%, Trump 46.8% (D + 1.8%)

    Polls close at 8:00 PM ET, except 9:00 PM ET for a portion of the Upper Peninsula that observes Central Time.

    Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Harris 48.8%, Trump 47.7% (D + 1.1%)

    Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

    Sun Belt – West

    Arizona – 11 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Leans Trump Trump 48.5%, Harris 46.8% (R + 1.7%)

    Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

    Nevada – 6 Electoral Votes





    Consensus Ranking Polling Average
    Toss-up Trump 48.2%, Harris 47.6% (R + 0.6%)

    Polls close at 10:00 PM ET.

  • Updating the 270toWin Website After Biden’s Withdrawal

    Updating the 270toWin Website After Biden’s Withdrawal

    By 270toWin Staff

    July 22, 2024, 8:55 AM ET

    From the New York Times, “President Biden on Sunday abruptly abandoned his campaign for a second term under intense pressure from fellow Democrats and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris to lead their party in a dramatic last-minute bid to stop former President Donald J. Trump from returning to the White House.”

    The article goes on to say “The president’s decision upended the race and set the stage for a raucous and unpredictable campaign unlike any in modern times, leaving Ms. Harris just 107 days to consolidate support from Democrats, establish herself as a credible national leader and prosecute the case against Mr. Trump.”

    As a result of this late change to the Democratic ticket, look for the following changes to 270toWin in the days ahead:

    Polling Averages: This page will be updated in the next couple days to reflect Harris-Trump polling averages. The final Biden-Trump averages will remain available. Keep in mind that Harris-Trump polling has been limited, and may shift significantly as the voting intention question moves from a secondary hypothetical to center stage. 

    State Polling Detail: Most existing Harris-Trump polls are available toward the bottom of the individual state pages. Click an ‘All Polls’ link from the Polling Averages page, and scroll toward the bottom. Alternately, you can visit the Most Recent Polls page.

    Polling Map: The Biden-Trump polling map will be replaced with a similar one for Harris-Trump. The Harris-Trump map will start out as a bit of a hybrid, reflecting final Biden-Trump polling where Harris-Trump isn’t available.

    Simulator: The simulator continues to operate, using the underlying model’s final Biden-Trump update on July 21. The model is anticipated to be relaunched by August 1.

    Battleground 270: This page reflects 25,000 simulations run daily. It is updated through July 21, and will pick up again when the new model is available.