With less than 48 hours to go in the US election and more than 77.6m votes already cast, new polling shows Kamala Harris leading among early voters in the country’s battleground states.
The Democratic candidate has an 8% lead among those who have already voted, while her opponent, Donald Trump, is ahead among those who say they are very likely to vote but have not yet done so. The poll, from the New York Times and Siena College, also found Harris was slightly ahead in three swing states, with Trump up in one and the other three too close to call.
With only hours of campaigning left, Harris was speaking in Michigan, while her Republican opponent used a rally in Pennsylvania to complain about gaps in the bulletproof shields surrounding him and suggested he would have no concerns about reporters being shot at if there were another assassination attempt against him.
“To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and I don’t mind that so much,” he said, adding the press were “seriously corrupt people”. Trump’s communications director claimed in a statement the comments were supposedly an effort to look out for the welfare of the news media.
Here’s what else happened on Sunday:
Donald Trump election news and updates
The Trump campaign claimed the NYT polling and Saturday’s Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register were designed to suppress Trump voter turnout by presenting a biased, bleak picture of Trump’s re-election prospects. “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network.
In Pennsylvania, Trump told supporters that he should have stayed in the White House, despite his losing the 2020 election. “We had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left,” Trump said.
At a rally in Macon, Georgia, Trump kept up anti-migrant rhetoric and again suggested he would give a role on health policy to Robert F Kennedy Jr. Trump said he told Kennedy: “You work on women’s health, you work on health, you work on what we eat. You work on pesticides. You work on everything.”
After RFK Jrproposed removing fluoride from drinking water on the first day of a new Trump administration, the former president appeared to approve the idea. “Well, I haven’t talked to him about it yet, but it sounds OK to me,” Trump told NBC News. “You know, it’s possible.”
Trump also spoke in Kinston, North Carolina, where he criticised Mitch McConnell, theRepublican Senate minority leader. “Hopefully we get rid of Mitch McConnell pretty soon,” Trump said. Republican voters in Kinston told the Guardian they are ready to fight a “stolen election”.
Kamala Harris election news and updates
In her final rally in Michigan, Harris pledged to do everything in her power to “end the war in Gaza”, as she attempted to appeal to the state’s large Arab American and Muslim American population. Michigan is home to about 240,000 registered Muslim voters, a majority of whom voted for Biden in 2020. But Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in the state have expressed dissatisfaction over the administrations stance on Israel’s war on Gaza.
Harris dodged a question on whether she voted for a controversial tough-on-crime measure that would make it easier for prosecutors to imprison repeat shoplifters and drug users to jail or prison, after submitting her ballot in California. Proposition 36 would roll back provisions of Proposition 47, which downgraded low-level thefts and drug possession to misdemeanours.
At Michigan’s Greater Emmanuel Institutional church of God in Christ in Detroit, Harristold the congregation that God’s plan was to “heal us and bring us together as nation” but that they “must act” to realise that plan.
How US politics got so insulting (Hint: it didn’t start with Trump) – video
Elsewhere on the campaign trail
A US government communications regulator has claimed that Harris’s appearance on Saturday Night Live violates “equal time” rules that govern political programming. Brendan Carr, a commissioner with the federal communications commission (FCC), said “the purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election.”
Iowa can continue challenging the validity of hundreds of ballots from potential noncitizens, a federal judge has ruled. The state has targeted illegal voting but critics said the effort threatened the voting rights of people who have only recently become US citizens.
Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, gets 3% of the vote. That’s down from 6% in September and 9% in June.
Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
“I like her policies on reproductive health and having women choosing their own health care, and the fact that I think that she will save our democracy and follow the rule of law,” said Linda Marshall, a 79-year-old poll respondent from Cascade who has already cast her absentee ballot for Harris.
The registered Democrat said she identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for somebody else.
“I just believe that if the Republicans can decide what you do with your body, what else are they going to do to limit your choice, for women?” she said.
One aspect where Trump does better than Harris: A greater share of his supporters than hers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their pick.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their choice, while another 23% say they are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
For Harris, 71% are extremely or very enthusiastic — down from 80% in September — while 29% are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
The poll shows few likely Iowa voters remain undecided, with 91% saying their minds are made up, compared with 80% in September.
That includes 96% of Harris supporters who are firm in their choice and 95% of Trump supporters.
This year, independents appear to be turning the other way toward Harris — a move fueled by a growing support among independent women.
Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.
Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.
Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.
Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September.
But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).
Mya Williams, an 18-year-old college freshman and poll respondent, said she doesn’t identify with either the Democratic or Republican parties. But she’s excited to be part of the effort to elect the country’s first Black female president.
“I like what she stands for and that she’s a female and the opposite of what Trump stands for,” Williams said. “She’s something new.”
Harris holds a small lead with likely Iowa voters who are younger than 35, 46% to 44% over Trump.
Harris’ larger support among likely voters 65 and older, who prefer her 55% to 36%, could be a boon, because older Iowans tend to be more reliable voters and show up at disproportionately higher rates.
The poll shows 62% of Iowans younger than 35 are likely voters, down from 73% in September.
But 93% of seniors say they are likely voters — even higher than the 84% who said so in September.
“If you want a horse to ride on, you want seniors, because they vote,” Selzer said.
Donald Trump holds on to base voters: Evangelicals, rural Iowans, men
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
He carries Iowa men 52% to 38% and evangelicals 73% to 20%.
Joel Funk, a 26-year-old poll respondent and Garden Grove resident, said he’s excited to cast an early ballot for Trump. The registered Republican said the economy is the biggest issue facing the country right now.
“We’ve lived through four years of him (Trump) being president, and I would say they are four of the best years economically that I have lived through,” he said. “Then we’ve gotten to see four years of the opposition, and we’ve had a lot of inflation and a lot of illegal immigration — a lot of things I would say aren’t the best for America.”
Trump leads with those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in towns (49% to 40%). But Harris carries those in cities (61% to 33%) and suburbs (59% to 36%).
Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris gets those with a college degree, 61% to 31%.
Funk, an automation engineer, dislikes that Harris was nominated without going through the usual primary process.
“They kind of put her in place of Joe Biden after the actual primary polls,” he said. “So, I don’t think she was actually chosen by the people. … And based off of interviews both of them have done, she said she would maintain the same style of policies (as Biden). Which I don’t think have been that great for us.”
Different issues drive Democrats, Republicans
The issues driving Trump supporters are very different than those driving Harris supporters, the Iowa Poll finds.
Trump voters say the issue of inflation and the economy is what they’ve been thinking about most in their decision to support him. Forty-nine percent of his supporters cite it as their most important issue.
Another 25% say immigration is driving their decision.
The top issue for Harris supporters is “the future of democracy,” with 51% citing it as their most important issue. Another 22% say it’s abortion.
“The voting agenda is different for each of those groups of supporters,” Selzer said.
Some former Donald Trump supporters move away from him in 2024
Harris holds on to the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they will support her and 0% saying they will support Trump.
But she also gets 5% of Republicans who say they will vote for her over Trump. Trump holds 89% of Republicans.
The poll shows a small universe of people who say they previously supported Trump and have now switched their vote to someone else.
Among those not supporting Trump, 16% say there was a time when they supported him, while 81% say they have never supported him. Another 3% are not sure.
Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.
“It’s not what I like about her, it’s what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn’t vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.”
He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.
“To me, the biggest part of democracy is the ability to compromise,” he said. “And with Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, there is no compromise, even within their own party.”
Of those not supporting Trump, 67% consider themselves “never Trumpers.” Another 26% say they are not “never Trumpers,” and 8% are not sure.
Among those who say they voted for Trump in 2020, 89% say they will do so again this year, and 4% will vote for Harris.
Among those who say they voted for Biden, 93% say they will now vote for Harris, and 4% will vote for Trump.
Among those who did not vote, Harris leads 47% to 44%.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,038 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 808 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
