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الوسم: betting

  • Betting markets swing hard to Trump with early election tallies | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump rebuilt a vast lead over Kamala Harris in betting market forecasts as presidential election results were counted on Tuesday night.

    The former president and his allies touted projections from top gambling platforms that put him way ahead of Harris in recent weeks, going so far as to suggest they were more accurate than traditional opinion polls.

    While betting markets narrowed significantly in the final days of the campaign, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend, Trump surged ahead as polls closed on election day.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores. By late Tuesday evening, Polymarket gave Trump a 93% chance of winning back the White House. Kalshi put Trump’s chances at 90% and Harris at 10%. PredictIt put Trump at 90%.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    The forecasts these platforms produced for who was most likely to win the election diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, betting platforms have been putting Trump ahead for weeks.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Tuesday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 93¢ you wagered if he wins the election. These returns had fallen drastically in 24 hours: Polymarket was offering $1 for every 58¢ wagered on a Trump victory the previous day.

    The betting market projections shifted significantly on Tuesday evening as news outlets started issuing their first projections and calls for the election.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds | US news

    Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday’s presidential election, eroding Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their vote.

    The former president and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks, as the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.

    As election day nears, however, Trump’s victory odds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores.

    Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.

    a graph showing election betting markets

    But Trump’s chances have apparently dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.

    Another platform priced Harris’s odds as greater than Trump’s for the first time in almost a month. The Democrat had a 53% chance of victory, according to PredictIt, which gave Trump a 51% chance.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he wins the election. If you bet on Harris, on the same platform, on the same day, you would receive $1 for every 43 cents wagered if she wins.

    A striking poll in Iowa that unexpectedly put Harris ahead of Trump sent shock waves through America’s poll-watchers this weekend. Betting market experts say participants consider a range of factors when placing a wager, including the results of such surveys.

    Questions have been raised in recent weeks over activity in the betting markets. When it emerged that one man had wagered more than $30m on a Trump victory on Polymarket, both he and the platform stressed it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.

    “My intent is just making money,” the man, who called himself Théo, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had “absolutely no political agenda”.