Donald Trump has been told by some advisers that he should prematurely declare victory on election night if he’s sufficiently ahead of Kamala Harris in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, according to people close to him, though whether he will heed that advice remains unclear.
The consensus view is that Trump has nothing to lose by claiming he has won if he has a several-hundred-thousand-vote advantage in Pennsylvania or if his internal pollsters think a victory is plausible even if the results are not fully confirmed on Tuesday night.
But even Trump’s most pugnacious allies – including the former White House strategist Steven Bannon who spoke with him last week, one of the people said – have suggested he hold off making a pronouncement if the race is any closer by the time he goes to bed, lest it makes him look foolish.
In the final days of the campaign, Trump and his campaign have projected confidence. It has raised expectations among his supporters that he will win, laying the groundwork for baselessly claiming the election was stolen if he loses and Harris takes the White House. Any premature declaration of victory would also probably play into that phenomenon.
The wild-card factor in what Trump might do on election night remains Trump himself. His aides concede that if Trump decides he wants to declare, he will do as he pleases, and his travel-weary team might have little appetite and influence to dissuade him.
Trump’s team collectively shrugging at the prospect of the former president prematurely proclaiming himself the winner, as he did in the aftermath of the 2020 election, is itself notable as it underscores yet another norm of presidential politics shattered by Trump.
Trump declaring prematurely would not carry the element of surprise it had four years ago. The Harris campaign have said they are preparing for him to pull such a stunt again.
Trump has spoken less this time around about what he plans to do on election night, the people said, in contrast to his premeditation in the 2020 election when he told friends and allies of his intention to declare victory regardless of the outcome.
Trump dodged questions about his intentions as he cast his own ballot on Tuesday.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen in terms of declaring victory,” Trump said. “It looks like we have a very substantial lead. It looks like we have many more Republicans voting than Democrats. So if you have a lead and a bigger vote it means you’re doing well but they have to call a winner. And they should call a winner.”
But whether it is a product of the advisers around him tamping down on that kind of plotting that set into motion attempts to overturn the election results or the logistics of the news media being at a different venue from his private watch party, Trump has been quieter about his intentions.
Trump will watch the results come in at a private watch party at his Mar-a-Lago club for members, donors and other friends and family, while the official campaign watch party takes place a short drive away at a convention center in West Palm Beach, Florida, the people said.
The private watch party starts earlier and Trump is likely to project to members that he is winning, the people said. That event at Mar-a-Lago has also been described as a knife fight, with allies knocking off donors’ names from the list to get credentials for themselves.
Whether Trump will double down on any victory claim at the convention center party remains unclear. Trump’s aides have suggested if he does decide to announce himself as the winner, he will motorcade over from Mar-a-Lago, and if not, he might not make an appearance at all.
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