الوسم: Donald

  • Donald Trump poised to win election after string of crucial swing state wins | US elections 2024

    After notching a string of wins in crucial swing states, Donald Trump was poised to return to the White House after a momentous presidential election in which democracy itself had been at stake and which is likely to take the United States into uncharted political waters.

    The Republican nominee took North Carolina surprisingly early, the first battleground state to be called, and later he took Georgia and then Pennsylvania. He was strongly positioned in Arizona and Nevada, other key contests.

    The race between Trump, a former president, and the current Democratic vice-president, Kamala Harris, had been a frenetic contest and it finally approached its conclusion amid scenes of celebration in the Trump camp.

    At 1.20am, at Trump’s election watch party in Palm Beach, Florida, a prolonged, almighty roar went up as Fox News had called Pennsylvania for Trump. “It’s over!” screamed one man, amid the noise, at what felt like the point of no return. A young man in a black Trump hat shouted: “Fuck Joe Biden! Fuck her!”

    The euphoric crowd chanted: “USA! USA!” They gathered near the stage, waiting for Trump to speak.

    At 1.47am, Fox named Trump president-elect, though the Associated Press – which the Guardian follows – has not yet put Trump over the finish line.

    The man who incited the deadly attack at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, earning (and surviving) a second impeachment; the man who was this year convicted on 34 criminal charges; the man who faces multiple other criminal counts and who has been ordered to pay millions in multiple civil lawsuits, including one over a rape claim a judge deemed “substantially true”. The man at the centre of all of that whom senior military aides called a fascist and a danger to the republic was preparing to head for the White House again.

    Eventually, past 2am, Trump emerged to speak, to the strains of God Bless the USA, the Lee Greenwood country anthem plastered on Bibles that Trump hawks for sale. Trump was surrounded by his family, by close aides, and by JD Vance, the hard-right Ohio senator he made his vice-presidential pick.

    “This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before,” Trump said. “This is I believe the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country and now it’s going to reach a new level of importance, because we’re going to help our country heal.

    Supporters of Donald Trump celebrate outside a restaurant in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Silvio Campos/AFP/Getty Images

    “We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country … I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve, this will truly be the golden age of America.”

    Trump reveled in battleground state victories and said he would win them all. He claimed to have won the popular vote, which had not yet been decided. He described “a great feeling of love” and claimed “an unprecedented and powerful mandate”, celebrating Republicans retaking the Senate. He said it looked like Republicans would keep control of the House of Representatives – again, undecided at that point.

    Trump saluted his wife, Melania, his family, and Vance, who he invited to the podium to speak. Vance buttered up the boss, promising “the greatest economic comeback in American history under Donald Trump’s leadership”.

    Trump referred to the assassination attempts against him. “God spared me for a reason,” he said.

    At Harris’s watch party, at Howard University in Washington, the mood became somber, as hopes Harris could become the first president from a Historically Black College and University began to flicker and dim. Around 1am, Cedric Richmond, a former congressman and Harris campaign co-chair, told supporters they would not hear from Harris.

    “Thank you for believing in the promise of America,” Richmond said. “We still have votes to count. We still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.”

    Attendees rushed out, the mood swinging to despair. Eight years after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a similar fashion, few attendees seemed surprised or shocked. Many declined to comment. “What more is there to say,” one woman shrugged as she shuffled out.

    Strewn water bottles and other litter were all that was left after the crowd was gone.

    Before 1am, the Republicans had retaken the Senate. A West Virginia seat went red as expected but the die was cast when Sherrod Brown, a long-serving progressive Democrat, was beaten in Ohio by Bernie Moreno, a car salesperson backed by Trump. Democrats had held the chamber 51-49. Other key races went right. In Maryland, Angela Alsobrooks provided a point of light for Democrats, joining Lisa Blunt Rochester, of Delaware, as the third and fourth Black women ever elected to the Senate.

    The House remained contested, Democrats seeking to retake the chamber, to erect a bastion against a Republican White House and Senate. The House can hold a president to account but the Senate controls federal judicial appointments. Further rightwing consolidation of control of the supreme court, to which Trump appointed three hardliners between 2017 and 2021, looms large.

    In June 2022, that Trump court removed the federal right to abortion. Campaigns for reproductive rights fueled Democratic electoral successes after that but on Tuesday such issues seemed to fall short of fueling the wave of support from suburban, Republican-leaning women Democrats had hoped for and pundits predicted.

    A measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Florida constitution, which Democrats hoped would help boost turnout, fell short of the 60% needed for approval. Nebraska, won by Trump, voted to uphold its abortion ban, which outlaws the procedure after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion-related measures did pass in New York, Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and Arizona.

    A huge gender gap opened. A CNN exit poll showed Harris up by 11 points among female voters, Trump up 10 among male voters. Other polls showed dominant concerns over the economy and democracy. According to the AP Votecast survey, four in 10 voters named the economy and jobs as the most important problem facing the country, a hopeful sign for Trump. Roughly half of voters cited the fate of democracy, a focal point of Harris’s campaign.

    Wednesday will bring jitters in foreign capitals. Victory for Trump’s “America first” ethos can be expected to boost rightwing populists in Europe and elsewhere – and to place support for Ukraine in jeopardy as it fights Russian invaders.

    At home, America lies divided. Harris centered her campaign on Trump’s autocratic threat while he ran a campaign fuelled by grievance, both personal and the perception of an ailing America, baselessly painting Biden and Harris as far-left figures wrecking the economy with inflation and identity politics. Though he was the subject of two assassination attempts, in Pennsylvania and Florida, he stoked huge divisions and widespread fears of violence.

    Trump told supporters “I am your retribution” and threatened to prosecute political foes, journalists and others. He suggested turning the US military against “the enemy from within”. He put immigration and border security at the heart of his pitch, painting a picture of the US overrun by illegal immigration, with language that veered into outright racism and fearmongering. He referred to undocumented people as “animals” with “bad genes … poisoning the blood of our country”.

    He vowed to stage the biggest deportation in US history, to replace thousands of federal workers with loyalists, to impose sweeping tariffs on allies and foes alike.

    On election night, he said he would govern “by a simple motto: Promises made. Promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises. Nothing will stop me.”

    Additional reporting by Sam Levine in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Hugo Lowell in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Asia Alexander in Washington DC

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • US election results and map 2024: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vie to be president | US elections 2024

    Electoral college votes

    illustration of Kamala Harris

    illustration of Donald Trump

    Electoral college votes

    57,032,553 votes (48.0%)

    First results expected after 18.00 EST (15.00 PST or 23.00 GMT)

    Long a Republican stronghold, Georgia has become more of a battleground due to its growing black electorate. In 2020, Biden won by less than 12,000 votes. In 2022, Republican Brian Kemp won by 7.5 percentage points.

    2,602,408 50.8
    2,483,919 48.5
    20,298 0.4
    17,822 0.3

    Michigan was one of the states that Biden managed to flip from Trump in 2020, after voting for Democrats for president consistently between 1992 and 2012. A rust belt state, Democrats have full control of its state government.

    1,354,970 51.6
    1,225,913 46.7
    14,504 0.6
    12,771 0.5
    11,428 0.4
    3,149 0.1
    2,611 0.1
    1,137 0.0

    Wisconsin sided with the Democratic candidate in all presidential elections from 1988 through 2012. In 2016, Trump managed to flip the state but it was reclaimed by Biden in 2020 – albeit by a small margin.

    1,307,838 51.2
    1,208,696 47.3
    13,455 0.5
    9,396 0.4
    8,124 0.3
    3,112 0.1
    1,859 0.1
    1,460 0.1

    Biden flipped his birth state back from Donald Trump in 2020. Despite voting for Democrats in every presidential election bar 2016 since 1992, the large rust belt state is now seen as a crucial swing state.

    3,013,110 51.4
    2,793,104 47.6
    28,293 0.5
    27,679 0.5
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    0 0.0
    1,390,072 65.5
    712,271 33.6
    11,520 0.5
    4,613 0.2
    4,171 0.2
    707,002 63.7
    378,380 34.1
    12,443 1.1
    5,365 0.5
    4,015 0.4
    2,044 0.2
    1,088 0.1
    910,139 49.8
    903,114 49.4
    7,543 0.4
    7,183 0.4

    How does the US election work?

    The winner of the election is determined through a system called the electoral college.

    What is the electoral college and how does it work?

    Each of the 50 states, plus Washington DC, is given a number of electoral college votes, adding up to a total of 538 votes. More populous states get more electoral college votes than smaller ones.

    A candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes (50% plus one) to win the election.

    In every state except two – Maine and Nebraska – the candidate that gets the most votes wins all of the state’s electoral college votes.

    Electoral college votes correspond to electors from each state. These electors vote directly for the president, based on the results in the general election in their state. In early January, following the presidential election, Congress convenes in a joint session to count and certify the electoral votes.

    How do people vote in the US election?

    Elections in the US are administered by each state. Whether by mail-in ballots or voting in person on election day, people effectively vote in 51 mini-elections in the presidential election.

    Due to the electoral college rules, a candidate can win the election without getting the most votes at the national level. This happened in 2016, when Trump won a majority of electoral college votes although more people voted for Hillary Clinton across the US.

    A handful of races are run with a ranked choice voting system, whereby voters can rank candidates in their order of preference. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their supporters’ votes will be counted for their next choice. The Guardian has marked these elections where applicable above, and shows the results of the final result with redistributed votes.

    How are the votes counted?

    Vote verification and counting involves many processes to ensure oversight and security, and it runs before, during and after election day.

    As soon as the polls close, local precincts count the ballots cast in person on election day, alongside any absentee or mail-in ballots that have been verified. Processes vary by state, but typically this involves verifying mail-in voter signatures and ensuring ballots are properly filled out. Provisional ballots, used when there are questions about a voter’s eligibility, are set aside for later verification.

    Verified ballots are then counted, usually digitally but in some cases manually. The counts are then transmitted to county election offices for aggregation and verification.

    This process involves thousands of local election officials who are either appointed or elected, depending on the state. Partisan and nonpartisan observers can monitor vote counting.

    State election authorities then compile the county-level results and, after another round of verification, certify the final results.

    Results are communicated through media – the Guardian receives results data from the Associated Press.

    Official results can take days or weeks to be fully finalised. This is often because of the verification process of absentee, mail-in and provisional ballots. In some states, mail-in ballots can be received and counted several days after election day. High voter turnouts and potential recounts in close races can also slow down results publication.

    How are the results reported?

    The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press (AP). AP “call” the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.

    Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night and in the following days, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.

    Illustrations by Sam Kerr. Cartograms by Pablo Gutiérrez.

  • AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

    AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Texas

    Former President Donald Trump won Texas for the third consecutive election on Tuesday, adding 40 electoral votes to his tally.
  • Polls open for 2024 US Election Day as Kamala Harris, Donald Trump face off | US Election 2024 News

    Polls open for 2024 US Election Day as Kamala Harris, Donald Trump face off | US Election 2024 News

    Washington, DC – Election Day is finally here.

    Polls have opened for the 2024 United States election, a national vote that will decide not only the next president of the country but also the makeup of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

    Tuesday caps a mad-dash stretch of campaigning that saw Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican challenger Donald Trump crisscrossing the country in hopes of shoring up voters.

    For weeks, polls have shown a remarkably tight race, with no candidate having the edge going into Election Day.

    Whatever the outcome of the vote, the result will define US politics and policy for the next four years. It will also be historic as voters will either elect the first female president in Harris or the first convicted felon in Trump.

    In the final sprint of the race, both candidates have laid out vastly different visions for the country’s future. They have also staked out divergent positions on key issues like the economy, immigration, women’s rights and democracy.

    Harris has pledged to “turn the page” on what she calls Trump’s divisive rhetoric. She has also positioned herself as a “new generation” leader who will boost the middle class, protect women’s rights and maintain the integrity of US institutions at home and abroad.

    Nevertheless, she has faced regular protests over her support for Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon.

    Trump, meanwhile, has promised a return to a US “golden age”. To do that, he has sketched a plan to lift economic regulations, project US strength abroad and crack down on migrants – a line of attack that regularly dips into racist tropes.

    But while the candidates’ platforms have starkly contrasted in both substance and tone, they overlap on one lofty theme: that the outcome of this year’s vote is pivotal.

    Trump has dubbed the 2024 race “the most important” one the country has ever seen, while Harris says it is the “most consequential” of voters’ lifetimes.

    Both candidates spent the final 24 hours ahead of Election Day busily campaigning in key states.

    “With your vote tomorrow, we can fix every single problem our country faces and lead America – indeed, the world – to new heights of glory,” said Trump as he delivered his closing pitch at the final rally of his campaign in the early hours of the morning in Grand Rapids, in the swing state of Michigan.

    Harris said “the momentum is on our side” as she signed off in Philadelphia.

    “We must finish strong,” the Democrat candidate declared. “Make no mistake, we will win.”

    Record early voting

    Election Day is the culmination of weeks of early voting in some locations. Several states began early voting – whether by mail or in person – as far back as September.

    Nearly 81 million voters already cast their ballot before Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

    That is more than half of the 158.4 million (PDF) total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election – and a sign of record turnout this year for early voting in some parts of the country.

    Election Day will ultimately reveal not just which candidate comes out on top, but the full extent of the changing demographics of the US electorate.

    The first voting site technically opened right after Monday midnight Eastern time (05:00 GMT, Tuesday) in the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch. The next slate opened at 5am ET (10:00 GMT) in Vermont.

    Other polling sites opened as morning broke across the six time zones that cover the 50 US states.

    Once the polls close in the evening, the results may take hours or days to be tabulated. States cannot begin reporting their vote counts until polls close.

    Results will start to trickle in by about 6pm ET (23:00 GMT) when the first polls close in states like Indiana and Kentucky.

    The last polls will close in the states farthest west, Alaska and Hawaii, around Tuesday midnight ET (05:00 GMT, Wednesday).

    After that, the timing of the results will come down to individual states, as the US does not have a centralised election system. Each state is responsible for tallying its ballots. The tighter the margins, the longer that process may take.

    INTERACTIVE - US election 2024 Path to the US 2024 president battleground states-1730614654

    All eyes will be on seven key states that are likely to decide the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.

    In the US, the presidential election is decided not by the popular vote but by a weighted system called the Electoral College.

    Under the system, each state is worth a certain number of Electoral College votes, equal to the number of senators and representatives in Congress each state has.

    For example, the swing state of North Carolina has 14 representatives in Congress based on its population size. Two senators represent every state, bringing the total number of Electoral College votes for North Carolina to 16.

    The outcome of the presidential race in a given state determines which candidate receives that state’s Electoral College votes.

    All but two states have a winner-takes-all system: if a candidate wins the state, even by a small margin, they get all its Electoral College votes.

    There are 538 Electoral College votes in total, spread across the US. Whoever passes the threshold of 270 wins the race.

    Since certain states consistently lean Republican or Democrat, Harris is likely to win 226 Electoral College votes easily, and Trump is expected to carry 219 without issue. Beyond that, Harris has 20 paths to victory and Trump 21.

    Al Jazeera will rely on The Associated Press news agency to determine who has won each state and, eventually, the overall election. The AP does not issue projections. It declares the result of a race only once a winner emerges and no other outcome is possible.

    History-making race

    This year’s vote will conclude an election season that repeatedly saw historic upheavals.

    Donald Trump, 78, has become the central figure in the Republican Party and has led a movement that has sown doubt in the US election process.

    Trump first entered the White House in 2016 after a surprise victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton. But he fell short in his re-election bid in 2020, when Joe Biden bested him at the ballot box.

    The Republican leader, however, never conceded defeat and instead claimed that widespread voter fraud cost him the race, an unsubstantiated assertion.

    Critics say since his 2020 defeat, Trump has never really stopped campaigning, laying the groundwork for his present-day bid. He officially announced he would seek re-election in 2022 at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

    But his campaign has, at times, been overshadowed by historic court cases. Trump is the first president, past or present, to face criminal charges.

    Four separate indictments have been issued against him: one for withholding classified documents, one for falsifying business records and two for efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

    In the business records case in New York, Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts. But rather than dampen his re-election prospects, his legal troubles have largely energised his base, according to polls.

    Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him and has called the indictments evidence of a coordinated “witch-hunt” designed to derail his presidential bid.

    But he was not the only candidate facing historic hurdles as he raced for the White House.

    His Democratic rival Harris was not even a candidate until about three months ago. Initially, in April 2023, President Biden announced plans to run for re-election.

    He cruised through the Democratic primary season, running largely unopposed in the state-level contests. But concerns about the 81-year-old’s age and ability began to mount as he hit the campaign trail.

    A special counsel report released in February, for instance, said Biden “did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died” – something the president later denied. And Biden made several high-profile gaffes, calling Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi the “president of Mexico”.

    The concerns over Biden crescendoed after a stumbling debate performance in June, where the president seemed to trail off mid-thought.

    By July, Biden had abruptly dropped out of the race, and Democrats quickly coalesced around his vice president, Harris.

    By early August, enough Democratic delegates had sided with Harris in a virtual vote for her to be named the party’s nominee for the presidency.

    But it was an unorthodox process: never before had an incumbent president dropped out so late in a race, and never in recent history had a major party nominee bypassed the traditional primary process.

    On Tuesday, Trump addressed the media after casting his ballot in Palm Beach, Florida, saying he feels “very confident” about his election odds.

    “It looks like Republicans have shown up in force,” Trump said. “We’ll see how it turns out”.

    He added, “I hear we’re doing very well.”

    The election may still break new ground. In the charged political climate, fears of physical threats to polling sites have surged like never before.

    And after four years of Trump claiming that the 2020 election had been stolen, observers have warned he and his allies could challenge the 2024 race if the results do not go his way.

    That means the cloud of uncertainty that has hung over US politics for months may not dissipate anytime soon.

  • Advisers urge Donald Trump to declare victory prematurely on election night | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump has been told by some advisers that he should prematurely declare victory on election night if he’s sufficiently ahead of Kamala Harris in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, according to people close to him, though whether he will heed that advice remains unclear.

    The consensus view is that Trump has nothing to lose by claiming he has won if he has a several-hundred-thousand-vote advantage in Pennsylvania or if his internal pollsters think a victory is plausible even if the results are not fully confirmed on Tuesday night.

    But even Trump’s most pugnacious allies – including the former White House strategist Steven Bannon who spoke with him last week, one of the people said – have suggested he hold off making a pronouncement if the race is any closer by the time he goes to bed, lest it makes him look foolish.

    In the final days of the campaign, Trump and his campaign have projected confidence. It has raised expectations among his supporters that he will win, laying the groundwork for baselessly claiming the election was stolen if he loses and Harris takes the White House. Any premature declaration of victory would also probably play into that phenomenon.

    The wild-card factor in what Trump might do on election night remains Trump himself. His aides concede that if Trump decides he wants to declare, he will do as he pleases, and his travel-weary team might have little appetite and influence to dissuade him.

    Trump’s team collectively shrugging at the prospect of the former president prematurely proclaiming himself the winner, as he did in the aftermath of the 2020 election, is itself notable as it underscores yet another norm of presidential politics shattered by Trump.

    Trump declaring prematurely would not carry the element of surprise it had four years ago. The Harris campaign have said they are preparing for him to pull such a stunt again.

    Trump has spoken less this time around about what he plans to do on election night, the people said, in contrast to his premeditation in the 2020 election when he told friends and allies of his intention to declare victory regardless of the outcome.

    Trump dodged questions about his intentions as he cast his own ballot on Tuesday.

    “I don’t know what’s going to happen in terms of declaring victory,” Trump said. “It looks like we have a very substantial lead. It looks like we have many more Republicans voting than Democrats. So if you have a lead and a bigger vote it means you’re doing well but they have to call a winner. And they should call a winner.”

    But whether it is a product of the advisers around him tamping down on that kind of plotting that set into motion attempts to overturn the election results or the logistics of the news media being at a different venue from his private watch party, Trump has been quieter about his intentions.

    Trump will watch the results come in at a private watch party at his Mar-a-Lago club for members, donors and other friends and family, while the official campaign watch party takes place a short drive away at a convention center in West Palm Beach, Florida, the people said.

    The private watch party starts earlier and Trump is likely to project to members that he is winning, the people said. That event at Mar-a-Lago has also been described as a knife fight, with allies knocking off donors’ names from the list to get credentials for themselves.

    Whether Trump will double down on any victory claim at the convention center party remains unclear. Trump’s aides have suggested if he does decide to announce himself as the winner, he will motorcade over from Mar-a-Lago, and if not, he might not make an appearance at all.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • US election results 2024 live: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vie to be president | US elections 2024

    Electoral college votes

    illustration of Kamala Harris

    illustration of Donald Trump

    Electoral college votes

    First results expected after 18.00 EST (15.00 PDT or 23.00 GMT)

    How does the US election work?

    The winner of the election is determined through a system called the electoral college.

    What is the electoral college and how does it work?

    Each of the 50 states, plus Washington DC, is given a number of electoral college votes, adding up to a total of 538 votes. More populous states get more electoral college votes than smaller ones.

    A candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes (50% plus one) to win the election.

    In every state except two – Maine and Nebraska – the candidate that gets the most votes wins all of the state’s electoral college votes.

    Electoral college votes correspond to electors from each state. These electors vote directly for the president, based on the results in the general election in their state. In early January, following the presidential election, Congress convenes in a joint session to count and certify the electoral votes.

    How do people vote in the US election?

    Elections in the US are administered by each state. Whether by mail-in ballots or voting in person on election day, people effectively vote in 51 mini-elections in the presidential election.

    Due to the electoral college rules, a candidate can win the election without getting the most votes at the national level. This happened in 2016, when Trump won a majority of electoral college votes although more people voted for Hillary Clinton across the US.

    A handful of races are run with a ranked choice voting system, whereby voters can rank candidates in their order of preference. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their supporters’ votes will be counted for their next choice. The Guardian has marked these elections where applicable above, and shows the results of the final result with redistributed votes.

    How are the votes counted?

    Vote verification and counting involves many processes to ensure oversight and security, and it runs before, during and after election day.

    As soon as the polls close, local precincts count the ballots cast in person on election day, alongside any absentee or mail-in ballots that have been verified. Processes vary by state, but typically this involves verifying mail-in voter signatures and ensuring ballots are properly filled out. Provisional ballots, used when there are questions about a voter’s eligibility, are set aside for later verification.

    Verified ballots are then counted, usually digitally but in some cases manually. The counts are then transmitted to county election offices for aggregation and verification.

    This process involves thousands of local election officials who are either appointed or elected, depending on the state. Partisan and nonpartisan observers can monitor vote counting.

    State election authorities then compile the county-level results and, after another round of verification, certify the final results.

    Results are communicated through media – the Guardian receives results data from the Associated Press.

    Official results can take days or weeks to be fully finalised. This is often because of the verification process of absentee, mail-in and provisional ballots. In some states, mail-in ballots can be received and counted several days after election day. High voter turnouts and potential recounts in close races can also slow down results publication.

    How are the results reported?

    The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press (AP). AP “call” the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.

    Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night and in the following days, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.

    Illustrations by Sam Kerr. Cartograms by Pablo Gutiérrez.

  • Alarm grows over Trump and Musk’s blizzard of baseless voter-fraud claims | Donald Trump

    Donald Trump and top allies such as the multi-billionaire Elon Musk have created a blizzard of false voting misinformation portraying Democrats as bent on stealing the election, undermining trust in the voting process and leading to potential violence, voting experts and ex-federal prosecutors say.

    To sow doubt about the integrity of the election and reprising his 2020 playbook of claiming that Democrats were trying to steal the election before he lost to Joe Biden and cried fraud, Trump has flatly and without evidence declared that Democrats are a “bunch of cheats”.

    Similarly, Trump has baselessly charged that Kamala Harris could only win “if it was a corrupt election”.

    The social media platform X, owned by Musk, who has donated over $120m to a Super Pac backing Trump with get-out-the-vote efforts in Pennsylvania and other swing states, has become a leading purveyor of falsehoods and conspiracies to his 200 million followers, say critics.

    Musk, the world’s richest man with a fortune close to $260bn, has asserted without evidence that Trump’s campaign is heading for a “crushing victory” over Harris, and been chastised by key election officials in Arizona and Georgia for allowing X to disseminate false claims of election cheating by Democrats and phoney voting problems.

    Bill Gates, a top election official from Maricopa county, Arizona, told the Guardian: “Elon Musk has made a number of false claims about Maricopa county that I and other officials have responded to. Given that Musk has such a large platform it’s of particular concern to us.”

    Election experts warn that the growing volume of misinformation and false charges of Democratic voting fraud involving non-citizens, mail-in ballots, voting machines and more has grown rapidly and is increasingly hard to combat.

    “When Musk bought Twitter and rebranded it as X, he complained that it had been unfairly censoring conservative viewpoints and he wanted to make it an uncensored marketplace of ideas,” ex-Federal Election Commission general counsel Larry Noble told the Guardian.

    “It now appears that Musk is using his wealth and ability to reach hundreds of millions of followers with lies and debunked conspiracy theories about how elections are being administered.

    “Now that he has fully and openly embraced Trump, he has joined Trump and his other minions in spreading the claim that the only way Trump can lose the upcoming election is if there is widespread fraud. Of course, they are already claiming, without credible evidence, that election fraud is already taking place.”

    Other election experts voice similar concerns.

    “Trump allies appear to be spreading a myth among his supporters that his election is inevitable, a landslide,” said David Becker who runs the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research.

    “Given all the data available, it’s clear this race is very close, and no reasonable person should be surprised if either candidate wins. But if Harris wins, this strategy will likely amplify the sense of shock among many of Trump’s supporters, which could increase the chances of violence.”

    Just last Thursday on his Truth Social platform, Trump said, “We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania” and quickly demanded criminal prosecutions in a case that appears to have been the result of some minor human errors that has been remedied, according to state officials.

    At a Pennsylvania rally over the weekend in Lancaster county Trump, charged without evidence that “they are trying so hard to steal this damn thing … We should have one-day voting and paper ballots.”

    X, too, has increasingly amplified false charges of voting fraud or problems in key states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, including a fake video that election officials in Georgia have linked to Russia disinformation of a Haitian in the state claiming he had voted in a few different counties.

    Besides Musk, other key Trump allies such as Turning Point USA chief Charlie Kirk have used their large rightist audiences via podcasts and public events to push bogus claims about Democratic election fraud.

    Former prosecutors and disinformation analysts say that the spread of baseless charges that Democrats are trying to steal the election for Harris carries grave risks

    “We live in a time when influencers can spread false narratives on social media platforms and podcasts. Without any regulation to check their behavior, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, and others are using their platforms to promote false narratives,” said Barbara McQuade, a former federal prosecutor in eastern Michigan who wrote a book about disinformation entitled Attack from Within.

    McQuade stressed: “We are seeing an orchestrated effort to undermine public confidence in the outcome of the election. There is no evidence that Republican strategies are coordinated with Russia efforts, but their interests align.”

    Likewise, other ex-prosecutors see evidence that Trump and his allies are poised to charge election fraud if he loses again as the “Stop the Steal” movement did.

    “Trump’s efforts to undermine confidence in our election system, through baseless allegations of fraud, is one of the most dangerous things he has accomplished in his sustained assault on democracy,” said Michael Bromwich, a former inspector general at the Department of Justice. “His failure to overturn the 2020 election has not deterred him one bit from trying the same thing this year. This will have profound and long-term consequences on our political and legal systems.”

    “The incidence of election fraud is vanishingly small, and yet Trump, aided by his anti-democratic allies, has managed to persuade a significant percentage of Americans that our elections are riddled with fraud. A mountain of facts to the contrary seems to have no effect. Like many other falsehoods spread by Trump and his allies, Trump’s claims of election fraud are spread by media ecosystems that shape the view of millions of people.”

    Bromwich’s fears are underscored by how election officials in key swing states have been inundated with false claims of suspect voting or Democratic fraud.

    Falsehoods about Democrats cheating or exaggerating early voting glitches in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan have been growing with help from Trump and allies

    Critics say that Musk’s X has been in the vanguard of amplifying false claims of fraud and fueling doubts about the security of voting. At the end of October, Musk told his followers to inform an “Election Integrity Community” on X about election problems, even though Musk’s pro-Trump America Pac oversees the feed, which included some claims of election cheating that state officials in Pennsylvania and Arizona had debunked.

    Noble warns that democracy is endangered by false claims of election fraud by Trump and key allies.

    “Musk’s efforts to undermine trust in the election are doing serious and possibly irreparable harm to our democracy. He is helping to bring what was once a fringe element of our politics into the mainstream and helping normalize irrational conspiracy theories and distrust in the legitimacy of our democracy.”

    Further, Noble said that Musk’s “activities may be putting the safety and lives of election workers at risk by serving as justification for Trump’s followers to take aggressive and potentially violent acts against those trying to administer the election fairly”.

    In Bromwich’s eyes, the deluge of falsehoods about Democrats seeking to steal the election is highly dangerous for election workers and democracy.

    “One of the most disturbing results of Trump’s attacks on the integrity of our elections is the threat posed to election workers. Before Trump, election workers simply did not have to worry about threats to their safety and questions about their integrity. All that has changed because of Trump’s ability to marshal his supporters who support his unsupported claims of fraud based on fabricated allegations of cheating. It is a deeply disturbing development.”

  • Polling Map for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

    Polling Map for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

    We’ve created a Harris vs. Trump polling map. This will replace the Biden vs. Trump polling map that is no longer being updated.

    The polling map does not consider forecasts of how the election will go in November. It is best thought of as an ‘if the election was today’ view of things.

    State-level polling for the nascent general election match-up is extremely limited to this point, but should become more plentiful in the weeks ahead.

    Given the lack of polling, each state on the map is rated based on the following methodology:

    1. The calculated Harris vs. Trump polling average (if multiple qualifying polls) or most recent poll (if only one)
    2. If nothing available in #1, we use the Biden vs. Trump average (or most recent poll if only one) as of July 21, the date of the president’s withdrawal
    3. If nothing available in #2, we use the 2020 margin between Trump and Biden

  • Kamala Harris, Donald Trump rallying in Wisconsin in final US election push | US Election 2024 News

    Kamala Harris, Donald Trump rallying in Wisconsin in final US election push | US Election 2024 News

    Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, are targeting key swing states in a final push to win over undecided voters as they continue to crisscross the United States before Tuesday’s election.

    The two contenders, who are locked in a tight race for the White House, will host duelling rallies on Friday night about 10km (6 miles) from one another in Milwaukee, the largest city in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

    Milwaukee is home to the most Democratic votes in the state, but its conservative suburbs are where most Republicans live and are a critical area for Trump as he tries to reclaim the state he narrowly won in 2016 and lost in 2020.

    Four of the past six presidential elections in Wisconsin have been decided by less than 1 percentage point, or fewer than 23,000 votes, and the race is just as tight this time around.

    After appearing with music star Jennifer Lopez at a campaign event in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Thursday, Harris will tap musicians such as GloRilla, the Isley Brothers and Flo Milli in Milwaukee. Grammy award-winning rapper Cardi B, who has more than 200 million followers on social media platforms, was also due to speak at the campaign event.

    Trump, meanwhile, will return to the Fiserv Forum, the venue where in July he formally accepted his party’s presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention.

    Earlier, he made a campaign stop in Michigan, in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn, home to a large Arab American community.

    Asked why Dearborn was important to him, the former president said: “We have a great feeling for Lebanon, and I know so many people from Lebanon, Lebanese people and the Muslim population [like] Trump, and I’ve a good relationship with them.”

    He said: “We want their votes. We’re looking for their votes, and I think we’ll get their votes.”

    Trump also disparaged Harris and claimed if elected to the White House again, “we’re going to have peace in the Middle East”.

    In comments that echoed claims he has made about ending the conflict in Ukraine, he said bringing peace to the Middle East was possible “but not with the clowns you have running the US right now”.

    Opinion polls, both nationally and in the seven closely divided battleground states, suggest the two candidates are virtually tied with four days to go before election day. More than 66 million people have already cast early ballots.

    Trump has focused his campaign on stirring fears about violence he blames on immigrants and pessimism over the economy. The former president continues to falsely claim his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden was the result of widespread fraud in multiple states, and he and his supporters have spread baseless claims about this election in the key state of Pennsylvania.

    On Thursday, Trump stepped up his unfounded allegations that probes into suspect voter registration forms are proof of voter fraud. Some of his supporters also alleged voter suppression when long lines formed this week to receive mail-in ballots.

    “This is sowing the seeds for attempts to overturn an election,” said Kyle Miller, a strategist with the advocacy group Protect Democracy. “We saw it in 2020, and I think the lesson Trump and his allies have learned since is that they have to sow these ideas early.”

    State officials and democracy advocates said the incidents show a system working as intended. A judge extended the mail-in ballot deadline by three days in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, after the Trump campaign sued over claims that some voters were turned away before a Tuesday deadline.

    Election officials discovered potentially fraudulent registrations in Lancaster and neighbouring York counties, prompting investigations by local law enforcement. There is no evidence the applications have resulted in illegal votes.

    “This is a sign that the built-in safeguards in our voter registration process are working,” Al Schmidt, Pennsylvania’s top election official, told reporters this week.

    Harris, meanwhile, is running on warnings about an authoritarian takeover, pledging to help the middle class and pushing back against Republican abortion bans and restrictions.

    An issue top of mind for voters is the economy, with many complaining about inflation and wages that do not keep up with rising prices.

    Economists said the US economy is actually in robust shape, shrugging off the remaining impact of the coronavirus pandemic with low unemployment and strong growth. New figures on Friday, however, showed drastically lower job growth last month with only 12,000 new jobs created.

    Analysts largely attributed this to knock-on effects from hurricanes and a strike at the aerospace giant Boeing.