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  • Betting markets swing hard to Trump with early election tallies | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump rebuilt a vast lead over Kamala Harris in betting market forecasts as presidential election results were counted on Tuesday night.

    The former president and his allies touted projections from top gambling platforms that put him way ahead of Harris in recent weeks, going so far as to suggest they were more accurate than traditional opinion polls.

    While betting markets narrowed significantly in the final days of the campaign, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend, Trump surged ahead as polls closed on election day.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores. By late Tuesday evening, Polymarket gave Trump a 93% chance of winning back the White House. Kalshi put Trump’s chances at 90% and Harris at 10%. PredictIt put Trump at 90%.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    The forecasts these platforms produced for who was most likely to win the election diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, betting platforms have been putting Trump ahead for weeks.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Tuesday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 93¢ you wagered if he wins the election. These returns had fallen drastically in 24 hours: Polymarket was offering $1 for every 58¢ wagered on a Trump victory the previous day.

    The betting market projections shifted significantly on Tuesday evening as news outlets started issuing their first projections and calls for the election.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • US presidential election updates: Poll shows Harris ahead in early voting as Trump jokes about reporters being shot | US elections 2024

    With less than 48 hours to go in the US election and more than 77.6m votes already cast, new polling shows Kamala Harris leading among early voters in the country’s battleground states.

    The Democratic candidate has an 8% lead among those who have already voted, while her opponent, Donald Trump, is ahead among those who say they are very likely to vote but have not yet done so. The poll, from the New York Times and Siena College, also found Harris was slightly ahead in three swing states, with Trump up in one and the other three too close to call.

    With only hours of campaigning left, Harris was speaking in Michigan, while her Republican opponent used a rally in Pennsylvania to complain about gaps in the bulletproof shields surrounding him and suggested he would have no concerns about reporters being shot at if there were another assassination attempt against him.

    “To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and I don’t mind that so much,” he said, adding the press were “seriously corrupt people”. Trump’s communications director claimed in a statement the comments were supposedly an effort to look out for the welfare of the news media.

    Here’s what else happened on Sunday:

    Donald Trump election news and updates

    • The Trump campaign claimed the NYT polling and Saturday’s Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register were designed to suppress Trump voter turnout by presenting a biased, bleak picture of Trump’s re-election prospects. “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network.

    • In Pennsylvania, Trump told supporters that he should have stayed in the White House, despite his losing the 2020 election. “We had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left,” Trump said.

    • At a rally in Macon, Georgia, Trump kept up anti-migrant rhetoric and again suggested he would give a role on health policy to Robert F Kennedy Jr. Trump said he told Kennedy: “You work on women’s health, you work on health, you work on what we eat. You work on pesticides. You work on everything.”

    • After RFK Jr proposed removing fluoride from drinking water on the first day of a new Trump administration, the former president appeared to approve the idea. “Well, I haven’t talked to him about it yet, but it sounds OK to me,” Trump told NBC News. “You know, it’s possible.”

    • Trump also spoke in Kinston, North Carolina, where he criticised Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate minority leader. “Hopefully we get rid of Mitch McConnell pretty soon,” Trump said. Republican voters in Kinston told the Guardian they are ready to fight a “stolen election”.

    Kamala Harris election news and updates

    • In her final rally in Michigan, Harris pledged to do everything in her power to “end the war in Gaza”, as she attempted to appeal to the state’s large Arab American and Muslim American population. Michigan is home to about 240,000 registered Muslim voters, a majority of whom voted for Biden in 2020. But Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in the state have expressed dissatisfaction over the administrations stance on Israel’s war on Gaza.

    • Harris dodged a question on whether she voted for a controversial tough-on-crime measure that would make it easier for prosecutors to imprison repeat shoplifters and drug users to jail or prison, after submitting her ballot in California. Proposition 36 would roll back provisions of Proposition 47, which downgraded low-level thefts and drug possession to misdemeanours.

    • At Michigan’s Greater Emmanuel Institutional church of God in Christ in Detroit, Harris told the congregation that God’s plan was to “heal us and bring us together as nation” but that they “must act” to realise that plan.

    How US politics got so insulting (Hint: it didn’t start with Trump) – video

    Elsewhere on the campaign trail

    • A US government communications regulator has claimed that Harris’s appearance on Saturday Night Live violates “equal time” rules that govern political programming. Brendan Carr, a commissioner with the federal communications commission (FCC), said “the purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election.”

    • Iowa can continue challenging the validity of hundreds of ballots from potential noncitizens, a federal judge has ruled. The state has targeted illegal voting but critics said the effort threatened the voting rights of people who have only recently become US citizens.

    Read more about the 2024 US election: