1. The challengers
The hard-right Florida governor Ron DeSantis was widely seen as the most probable Republican candidate to prevent former president Donald Trump from becoming the party’s nominee for a third consecutive election. However, in January, despite being backed by the media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, DeSantis ends his flailing campaign – and eventually endorses Trump, whose team had smeared him as “Pudding Fingers” owing to his alleged eating habits. Running almost as an incumbent, Trump’s last serious challenger ends up being the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who, against all expectations, takes on the mantle of the anti-Trump vote. Casting doubt on Trump’s mental fitness and his loyalty to the US constitution, the former UN ambassador garners significant support – and perseveres until Super Tuesday in March, when she finally stands aside, leaving Trump as the last major candidate standing for the 2024 Republican nomination.
2. The president
In the annals of American politics, incumbent presidents seeking re-election typically enjoy a significant edge over their challengers. However, Joe Biden – the country’s oldest president – bucks the trend as his meandering remarks, frequent misspeaking of names and halting speech raise concerns that he might just be too old to take on Trump again. Nevertheless, essentially unopposed, the 46th president of the US runs the board in the Democratic primaries and is named the party’s candidate for 2024, while vowing that, despite his advancing years, he remains the most capable contender to defeat Trump once again.
3. The trial
The first real jolt of the election campaign arrives on 30 May, when a jury of 12 New Yorkers makes Trump the first ex-president in American history to become a convicted felon. They find him guilty of committing a crime – 34 of them, in fact – when he falsified business records to disguise $130,000 (£100,000) in hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels, to hide the scandal from American voters on the eve of the 2016 election. It is far from Trump’s only legal woe: at various times he has faced more than 90 criminal counts, including racketeering charges in Georgia for a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results, where he marked another milestone: the first mugshot of an American president. (That case itself later takes a dramatic turn when the district attorney, Fani Willis, is revealed to have had an affair with a prosecutor she hired, and the case remains on hold while a judge considers whether to disqualify her.) Separately, in February, a federal judge orders Trump to pay $83.3m to the writer E Jean Carroll, who had sued for defamation after Trump publicly disputed that he had sexually assaulted her – an accusation the judge ruled was “substantially true”. Many of the other cases remain in limbo while Trump pursues his well worn legal tactic: delay, delay, delay.
4. The debate
Biden’s performance in the opening presidential debate against Trump on 27 June in Atlanta is perhaps one of the worst in American history. Shaky, raspy-voiced and slack-jawed, his disastrous showing is punctuated by repeated stumbles over words, uncomfortable pauses and at least one point where he trails off before claiming: “We finally beat Medicare.” Top Democratic figures and donors panic, while recriminations swirl about the role of his campaign and of the media in failing to adequately account for his apparently declining mental fitness. The drum beat for Biden, 81, to step aside becomes increasingly relentless, as Democratic strategists finally join average voters in questioning whether the party might yet swap him out for a younger standard bearer to face off against Trump.
5. The immunity ruling
On 1 July, the supreme court drops a bombshell of its own: it rules that Trump is at least partly immune from criminal prosecution for anything he did in his “official capacity” as president. The decision, a major victory for Trump, destroys the likelihood of a criminal trial for Trump over trying to subvert the 2020 election occurring before the new election in November 2024. It is also the latest example of what most observers agree is the rightwing capture of the supreme court that Trump himself made possible by appointing three arch-conservative judges. Having already overturned Roe v Wade – a monumental victory for the anti-abortion movement, for which Trump proudly claims credit, that made abortion a huge issue in the 2022 midterms and now the 2024 election – the conservatives had caused even more of a furore in May when photos proved an upside down flag flew outside the home of Justice Samuel Alito, a symbol of support for Trump’s “Stop the Steal” movement that was prominent at the 6 January riot. Since the immunity ruling, the special counsel Jack Smith has hit back, filing a new indictment with more streamlined allegations; Trump in return has promised to fire Smith “within two seconds” if he wins re-election.
6. The shooting
On 13 July, during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump is shot and wounded in his upper right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who fires eight bullets with an AR-15-style rifle from the rooftop of a nearby building. As security agents cover the president, he stands with a raised fist and shouts: “Fight, fight, fight”, in what becomes an instantly iconic photograph and moment. The shooting claims the life of one attender and two others are left in critical condition; Crooks is killed by security agents. Just nine weeks later, on 15 September, Trump is allegedly the target of a second aspiring assassin at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, where Secret Service agents find Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, hiding in the bushes with a rifle. As well as setting off a crisis in the Secret Service, the events give Trump a rallying cry for his re-election effort: he appears at the Republican national convention days after the Butler shooting wearing an ear bandage, to a rapturous welcome.
7. The withdrawal
At 1.46pm on 21 July, Biden announces he will no longer seek re-election – ending weeks of fevered speculation and mounting pressure from lawmakers, donors, activists and voters terrified of his inability to beat Trump. A key intervention comes from the actor and Democratic fundraiser George Clooney: “It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” he writes. Biden’s longtime political ally and ex-House speaker Nancy Pelosi also plays a crucial role in limiting the president’s legacy to one term in what she says is a “cold calculation” for the sake of the country – and later tells the Guardian she has not spoken to her old friend since.
8. The coronation
Taking the stage in Chicago on 23 August to a thunderous standing ovation, the vice-president, Kamala Harris, with the full-throated support of Biden, officially accepts the Democratic presidential nomination, making her the first Black woman to lead a major party ticket. Harris declares the election an opportunity for the country to “chart a new way forward” and encourages voters to write the “next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told”. The impact is immediate and dramatic: she goes on to raise more than $1bn in less than three months, a record, and draws boisterous crowds to energetic rallies where she focuses on reproductive rights, economic help for the middle class and safeguarding US democracy.
9. The wildcard
Robert F Kennedy Jr, the scion of the most famous Democratic family whose independent campaign for president had at times reached as high as 10% in national polling, drops out. Kennedy had faced a string of scandals, including accusations he had assaulted a former babysitter. He also admitted that, yes, it was him who dumped a bear carcass in Central Park in a case that had mystified New Yorkers a decade earlier. After dropping out, the environmental campaigner turned vaccine skeptic then plays both sides – reportedly making overtures to Harris in August to discuss endorsing her in exchange for a job, then opting to back Trump, who has allegedly offered Kennedy control over the health agencies. Among third-party candidates still running are the environmentalist Jill Stein, who also stood as the Green party’s candidate in 2012 and 2016, the progressive activist Cornel West and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian party.
10. The running mates
In July, the Ohio senator JD Vance formally accepts Trump’s offer to run as his vice-presidential nominee – a dramatic change of position for Vance, the author of the hit memoir Hillbilly Elegy who once described himself as a “never Trumper” and called his new boss “America’s Hitler”. But if there is one quote for which JD Vance will be remembered in history, it is his controversial definition of leading Democrats: “A bunch of childless cat ladies,” he told the Fox News host Tucker Carlson in 2021. On the other side of the aisle, Harris chooses the Minnesota governor Tim Walz, a native of rural Nebraska who was a teacher and high school football coach and served in the National Guard for 24 years before entering politics. Walz captures national attention with a surprisingly effective takedown of Republicans: “These guys are just weird.”
11. The billionaire
The wealthiest man on the planet formally declares what most people had suspected after he bought Twitter and rebranded it as the more extreme X: he is a fully fledged cheerleader for Trump. First endorsing Trump after the assassination attempt, and then dancing and leaping on stage at a Trump rally, the boss of Tesla, Space X and several other companies takes to the newest of his many jobs with a gusto that shames even the most politically active billionaires. Musk becomes everything from a Trump policy adviser to a mega-donor and (through his America Pac campaign group) a leading figure in the Republican “ground game”, its effort to get voters to the polls. In October, he also begins giving away $1m a day to Pennsylvanians who are registered voters – causing a judge to demand his presence in court for running an “illegal lottery”. To those who ask what’s in it for Musk, observers point to billions in federal contracts and Trump promising him a role in helping to gut regulators.
12. The debate 2.0
On 11 September, Harris outperforms Trump in their first debate, appearing to vindicate Biden’s decision to gracefully bow out and marking a dramatic change in fortune as she takes a slight polling lead over Trump – though the polls essentially remain tied for the remainder of the race. However, it isn’t Harris’s victory that most attracts headlines from the debate, but the former president’s claim about immigrants from Haiti: “In Springfield, they are eating the dogs,” Trump said. “They are eating the cats. They are eating the pets of the people that live there.” Quickly immortalised in a viral song, the statement – an obvious and quickly debunked lie – appears at first to hurt the Republicans, but far from repudiating it Trump and Vance begin repeating it as part of an anti-immigrant focus that the campaign embraces as its driving principle, including a promise to carry out the largest mass deportation in US history.
13. The celebs
If Trump can rely on the support of the world’s richest man, Harris can count on that of its biggest-selling recording artist. In a post on Instagram minutes after the debate, Taylor Swift endorses Harris, encouraging her fans to register to vote and signing it “Childless Cat Lady”, a reference to Vance’s slur. She is hardly alone: Charli xcx had already set off a series of pro-Harris internet memes by tweeting “kamala IS brat” – referring to a lifestyle inspired by noughties excess and rave culture, as well as the name of her hit album Brat – and eventually Beyoncé, Eminem (whose hit Lose Yourself was rapped by Barack Obama at a Detroit rally where the superstar told his home city to “use your voice” for Harris) and dozens more popstars back Harris. From actors such as Robert De Niro – who clashes with Trump supporters outside the ex-president’s hush-money trial in New York – and the cast of Marvel’s Avengers movies, or athletes such as LeBron James (“When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me”), most of the highest-profile celebrity endorsements have gone to Harris – though Trump can boast he has Hulk Hogan, Dr Phil and Kid Rock in his camp.
14. The rally
Anger and vitriol take centre stage at New York’s Madison Square Garden as Trump and a cabal of his acolytes hold a rally marked by racist comments, coarse insults and threats about immigrants. The rally features nearly 30 speakers, with some of them making a series of racist remarks about Latinos, Black Americans and Jewish citizens. “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico,” Tony Hinchcliffe says, among other controversial remarks including singling out a Black man in a remark about watermelons. In the subsequent hours, Democrats, celebrities and Hispanic groups on both sides of the political aisle condemn the comments as “offensive” and “derogatory”, with many voters of Puerto Rican heritage saying they will change their votes to Harris – potentially a key voting bloc in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The event had already drawn comparisons to an infamous Nazi rally held at the arena in 1939, with the Democratic National Committee projecting images on the outside of the building repeating claims from Trump’s former chief of staff that he had “praised Hitler” – and although Vance dismisses the comparison, many note it was only in 2016 that Vance himself had suggested Trump could become “America’s Hitler”.
15. The final pitches
The days leading up to election day are always the most frenzied, and the 2024 race is no exception, with the candidates trading insults and billions of people around the world glued to the latest polls, which do not show a clear lead for either Trump or Harris. With the White House illuminated behind her, Harris draws a crowd of more than 75,000 people in Washington DC, referring to Trump as “another petty tyrant” who had stood in the same spot nearly four years ago and, in a last-gasp effort to cling to power, helped incite the mob that stormed the US Capitol. Meanwhile, Trump continues to smear immigrants and arrives at a rally in a garbage truck, a stunt to attack Democrats. Police chiefs and sheriffs across the country brace for potential violence against election workers, disruptions at polling locations and harassment of voters, while unfounded allegations of voter fraud prompt fears that Trump could, once more, refuse to accept the results if he loses – and this time get millions of Americans to do the same.
