الوسم: elections

  • Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists | US elections 2024

    Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and polls from right-leaning groups that analysts say may be exaggerating his popularity and could be used by Trump to claim only cheating prevented him from returning to the White House.

    The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states.

    But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.

    “We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.

    An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”.

    Pro-Trump influencers, too, have strengthened the impression of inevitable victory with social media posts citing anonymous White House officials predicting Harris’s defeat. “Biden is telling advisers the election is ‘dead and buried’ and called Harris an innate sucker,” the conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec posted this week.

    GOP-aligned polling groups have released 37 polls in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a study by the New York Times, during a period when longstanding pollsters have been curtailing their voter surveys. All but seven showed a lead for Trump, in contrast to the findings of long-established non-partisan pollsters, which have shown a more mixed picture – often with Harris leading, albeit within error margins.

    Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on 30 October. One poll puts her ahead of Trump by one point in the state, but another behind him by three points. Photograph: Peter Zay/Anadolu/Getty Images

    In one illustration, a poll last Tuesday by the Trafalgar Group – an organisation founded by a former Republican consultant – gave Trump a three-point lead over Harris in North Carolina. By contrast, a CNN/SRSS poll two days later in the same state put the vice-president ahead by a single point.

    The polling expert Nate Silver – who has said his “gut” favours a Trump win, while simultaneously arguing that people should not trust their gut – cast doubt on the ex-president’s apparent surge in an interview with CNBC. “Anyone who is confident about this election is someone whose opinion you should discount,” he said.

    “There’s been certainly some momentum towards Trump in the last couple of weeks. [But] these small changes are swamped by the uncertainty. Any indicator you want to point to, I could point to counter-examples.”

    Democrats and some polling experts believe the conservative-commissioned polls are aiming to create a false narrative of unstoppable momentum for Trump – which could then be used to challenge the result if Harris wins.

    “Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger. Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right,” Joshua Dyck, of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, told the New York Times.

    Simon Rosenberg, a Democrat strategist and blogger, said it followed a trend set in the 2022 congressional elections, when a succession of surveys favourable to Republicans created an expectation of a pro-GOP “red wave” that never materialised on polling day.

    “These polls were usually two, three, four points more Republican than the independent polls that were being done and they ended up having the effect of pushing the polling averages to the right,” he told MeidasTouch News.

    “We cannot be bamboozled by this again. It is vital to Donald Trump’s effort if he tries to cheat and overturn the election results, he needs to have data showing that somehow he was winning the election.

    “The reason we have to call this out is that Donald Trump needs to go into election day with some set of data showing him winning, so if he loses, he can say we cheated.”

    Trump, who falsely claims that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election, is also paving the way for repeating the accusation via legal means.

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    Bucks County, in Pennsylvania, was ordered to extend early voting by a day after voters waiting to submit mail-in ballots were turned away. Photograph: Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images

    He told a rally in Pennsylvania that Democrats were “cheating” in the state, and on Wednesday his campaign took legal action against election officials in Bucks County, where voters waiting to submit early mail-in ballots were turned away because the deadline had expired. A judge later ordered the county to extend early voting by one day. There is no evidence of widespread cheating in elections in Pennsylvania or any other state, and mail-in ballots are in high demand in part because Trump himself has encouraged early voting.

    Suing to allege – without evidence – that there has been voting fraud is part of a well-worn pattern of Trump disputing election results that do not go his way. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, his team filed 60 lawsuits disputing the results, all of which were forcefully thrown out in court.

    Anti-Trump Republicans have expressed similar concerns to Democrats about Trump’s actions. Michael Steele, a former Republican national committee chair and Trump critic, told the New Republic that the GOP-commissioned polls were gamed to favour Trump.

    “You find different ways to weight the participants, and that changes the results you’re going to get,” he said. “They’re gamed on the back end so Maga can make the claim that the election was stolen.”

    Stuart Stevens, a former adviser to Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican candidate, and a founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, told the same outlet: “Their gameplan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that’s how you lead people to think the race was stolen.”

    Trump-leaning surveys have influenced the polling averages published by sites such as Real Clear Politics, which has incorporated the results into its projected electoral map on election night, forecasting a win for the former president.

    Elon Musk, Trump’s wealthiest backer and surrogate, posted the map to his 202 million followers on his own X platform, proclaiming: “The trend will continue.”

    Trump and Musk have also promoted online betting platforms, which have bolstered the impression of a surge for the Republican candidate stemming from hefty bets on him winning.

    A small number of high-value wagers from four accounts linked to a French national appeared to be responsible for $28m gambled on a Trump victory on the Polymarket platform, the New York Times reported.

    Trump referenced the Polymarket activity in a recent speech. “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means we’re doing pretty well,” he said.

  • 2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages | US elections 2024

    On 5 November 2024, millions of Americans will head to the polls to choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for president of the United States. The two candidates have offered starkly different visions for the future of the nation. As the election enters the final stretch, the Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring.

    Latest polls

    Polling average over a moving 10-day period

    Guardian graphic. Source: Analysis of polls gathered by 538.

    See all polling

    Latest analysis: Nationally, Harris has a one-point advantage, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, virtually identical to last week. Such an advantage is well with the margin of errors of most polls. The battleground states, too, remain in a dead heat.

    But in a fractured political landscape that has featured threats of retribution from Trump, accusations of fascism and racism from Harris, and warnings that democracy itself is on the ballot, the bigger picture – that uniformity, over a prolonged period – has seasoned observers scratching their heads.

    Robert Tait, 2 November

    Read more

    Polling over time

    Polling average over a moving 10-day period. Each circle represents an individual poll result and is sized by 538’s pollster rating

    Notes on data

    To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank. On 11 Oct Guardian US began rounding averages to the nearest whole number to better reflect the lack of certainty in the polling figures.

    Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.

    Read more about the US election:

  • Trump and Harris in final election push as polls signal extremely close contest | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held competing rallies across Pennsylvania on Monday, making their final pitches in the key swing state as polls indicate an extremely close contest.

    The two candidates laid out starkly contrasting visions for America’s future on the eve of election day. Trump rambled through dark and dystopian speeches painting migrants as dangerous criminals while also launching personal attacks on a number of high-profile Democratic women. Harris delivered a more positive closing argument, shifting focus away from the threat posed by the ex-president, who is not mentioned in her final ad, and insisting “we all have so much more in common than what separates us”.

    Trump, at times appearing hoarse and low-energy, scheduled four rallies on Monday: one in Raleigh, North Carolina, two in Pennsylvania and a late-evening event in Grand Rapids, Michigan. He has continued to boast about his crowd sizes, but reports suggest some of his final events have been plagued by empty seats and early departures from audience members during his lengthy, meandering speeches.

    Harris stayed in Pennsylvania with several rallies and events in the critical state that could decide the election. Lady Gaga, Oprah Winfrey, Ricky Martin and other celebrities were slated to appear at her final event at the Philadelphia Museum of Art, where the famous steps from the Rocky movie were lit up blue and a large “President for All” banner was displayed.

    As the Harris campaign and its surrogates have continued to appeal to female voters, Trump revived familiar insults against notable women, sometimes with violent language.

    In North Carolina, he attacked former first lady Michelle Obama, saying: “She hit me the other day. I was going to say to my people, am I allowed to hit her now? They said, take it easy, sir.” He also suggested the Democratic congresswoman Nancy Pelosi should have been jailed for ripping up a copy of his 2020 State of the Union address: “She’s a bad, sick woman, she’s crazy as a bedbug.”

    And Trump repeated his line that Harris is a “low IQ individual”, followed by an incoherent tangent seemingly imagining her struggling to sleep: “I don’t want to have her say, You know, I had an idea last night while I was sleeping, turning, tossing, sweating,” he said, without finishing the sentence.

    Trump leaned into his taunts as he continues to face scrutiny over his recent comment suggesting that Liz Cheney, the former GOP congresswoman and a Harris supporter, should face rifles “shooting at her”. Appearing on ABC’s The View on Monday, Cheney said, “Women are going to save the day” on Tuesday.

    In North Carolina, Trump also threatened the newly elected president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, suggesting he would impose tariffs on all Mexican goods “if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs” – part of his trade proposals that economists have warned could significantly raise costs for US consumers.

    Later in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump fantasized about wrestlers who could “take the migrants in a fight”. He repeated racist tropes about immigrants and affirmed his threat of unprecedented mass deportations, saying Tuesday would be “liberation day”. He falsely suggested Democrats support “open borders” so undocumented people can fraudulently vote.

    He later spoke of the boxer Mike Tyson and seemingly in response to a comment from an audience member, suggested Tyson take on the vice-president: “That guy could fight … Put Mike in the ring with Kamala.”

    Trump in Raleigh, North Carolina. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters

    At around the same time, Harris was rallying in Allentown, roughly 40 miles away, critiquing Trumpism without directly naming her opponent: “America is ready for a new way forward, where we see our fellow American not as an enemy but as a neighbor. We are ready for a president who understands that the true measure of the strength of the leader is not based on who you beat down. It is based on who you lift up.”

    Later, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, earned loud applause at a rally in Georgia, when he attacked Harris by bringing up Joe Biden’s recent gaffe, in which he appeared to call Trump supporters “garbage”.

    “In two days, we are going to take out the trash in Washington DC, and the trash is named is Kamala Harris,” said the Ohio senator, in a remark that was condemned by Democrats and pundits.

    The back-and-forth trash talking originated with a comedian’s racist joke at Trump’s recent New York rally, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”, a comment that many Harris surrogates cited on Monday while appealing to Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania.

    The vice-president also stopped at a Puerto Rican restaurant with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and directly joined canvassing in a residential area in Reading, telling voters at one home: “I wanted to go door-knocking!”

    By his evening rally in Pittsburgh, Trump returned to his crowd size obsession, making false claims about low turnout at Harris’s nearby rally that hadn’t yet begun. He then mocked Beyoncé, who rallied for Harris in Texas: “Everyone’s expecting a couple songs and there were no songs. There was no happiness.” He added, “We don’t need a star. I never had a star.”

    The final scramble to turn out voters comes as Trump continues to make false claims about voter fraud, raising fears about how he might challenge the results if Harris wins. In a call with reporters on Monday, the Harris campaign said it was prepared to combat any efforts by Trump to discredit the outcome.

    “We have hundreds of lawyers across the country ready to protect election results against any challenge that Trump might bring,” said Dana Remus, a senior campaign adviser and outside counsel. “This will not be the fastest process, but the law and the facts are on our side.”

    Legal challenges were designed to undermine faith in the electoral process, she added: “Keep in mind that the volume of cases does not equate to a volume of legitimate concerns. In fact, it just shows how desperate they’re becoming.”

    There are also growing fears that political violence will escalate on election day and beyond, as misinformation and conspiracy theories are expected to spread while counting is under way. Election officials in one Nevada county said on Monday that threats have become so severe that polling places have installed “panic buttons” to automatically call 911 in emergencies.

    At Trump’s Pittsburgh rally, Michael Barringer, a 55-year-old coalminer, expressed his disdain for undocumented immigrants in explaining his support for Trump: “You’ve got millions and millions of illegal aliens crossing the border. They don’t speak English. They don’t say a pledge allegiance to the flag. They freeload off of us. I’m all for legal immigration, but not coming across the border illegally, taking American jobs.”

    Elizabeth Slaby, 81, was the first in line at Harris’s Allentown rally, arriving at about 6am. She said she was a registered Republican for more than 50 years, but changed her registration after the January 6 attack: “I never thought I’d see a woman president and now I’m so, so excited.”

    Lauren Gambino, Sam Levine and David Smith contributed reporting

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:

  • US presidential election updates: Poll shows Harris ahead in early voting as Trump jokes about reporters being shot | US elections 2024

    With less than 48 hours to go in the US election and more than 77.6m votes already cast, new polling shows Kamala Harris leading among early voters in the country’s battleground states.

    The Democratic candidate has an 8% lead among those who have already voted, while her opponent, Donald Trump, is ahead among those who say they are very likely to vote but have not yet done so. The poll, from the New York Times and Siena College, also found Harris was slightly ahead in three swing states, with Trump up in one and the other three too close to call.

    With only hours of campaigning left, Harris was speaking in Michigan, while her Republican opponent used a rally in Pennsylvania to complain about gaps in the bulletproof shields surrounding him and suggested he would have no concerns about reporters being shot at if there were another assassination attempt against him.

    “To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and I don’t mind that so much,” he said, adding the press were “seriously corrupt people”. Trump’s communications director claimed in a statement the comments were supposedly an effort to look out for the welfare of the news media.

    Here’s what else happened on Sunday:

    Donald Trump election news and updates

    • The Trump campaign claimed the NYT polling and Saturday’s Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register were designed to suppress Trump voter turnout by presenting a biased, bleak picture of Trump’s re-election prospects. “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network.

    • In Pennsylvania, Trump told supporters that he should have stayed in the White House, despite his losing the 2020 election. “We had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left,” Trump said.

    • At a rally in Macon, Georgia, Trump kept up anti-migrant rhetoric and again suggested he would give a role on health policy to Robert F Kennedy Jr. Trump said he told Kennedy: “You work on women’s health, you work on health, you work on what we eat. You work on pesticides. You work on everything.”

    • After RFK Jr proposed removing fluoride from drinking water on the first day of a new Trump administration, the former president appeared to approve the idea. “Well, I haven’t talked to him about it yet, but it sounds OK to me,” Trump told NBC News. “You know, it’s possible.”

    • Trump also spoke in Kinston, North Carolina, where he criticised Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate minority leader. “Hopefully we get rid of Mitch McConnell pretty soon,” Trump said. Republican voters in Kinston told the Guardian they are ready to fight a “stolen election”.

    Kamala Harris election news and updates

    • In her final rally in Michigan, Harris pledged to do everything in her power to “end the war in Gaza”, as she attempted to appeal to the state’s large Arab American and Muslim American population. Michigan is home to about 240,000 registered Muslim voters, a majority of whom voted for Biden in 2020. But Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in the state have expressed dissatisfaction over the administrations stance on Israel’s war on Gaza.

    • Harris dodged a question on whether she voted for a controversial tough-on-crime measure that would make it easier for prosecutors to imprison repeat shoplifters and drug users to jail or prison, after submitting her ballot in California. Proposition 36 would roll back provisions of Proposition 47, which downgraded low-level thefts and drug possession to misdemeanours.

    • At Michigan’s Greater Emmanuel Institutional church of God in Christ in Detroit, Harris told the congregation that God’s plan was to “heal us and bring us together as nation” but that they “must act” to realise that plan.

    How US politics got so insulting (Hint: it didn’t start with Trump) – video

    Elsewhere on the campaign trail

    • A US government communications regulator has claimed that Harris’s appearance on Saturday Night Live violates “equal time” rules that govern political programming. Brendan Carr, a commissioner with the federal communications commission (FCC), said “the purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election.”

    • Iowa can continue challenging the validity of hundreds of ballots from potential noncitizens, a federal judge has ruled. The state has targeted illegal voting but critics said the effort threatened the voting rights of people who have only recently become US citizens.

    Read more about the 2024 US election:

  • When do polls close on election day, Tuesday, 5 November 2024? | US elections 2024

    After a historic US election cycle that saw the incumbent president step down from his party’s ticket and two assassination attempts against the Republican presidential nominee, voters are (finally) casting their ballots.

    Tens of millions of Americans will have already voted by the time that polls close on 5 November, but tens of millions more will cast ballots in person on election day. In 2020, more than 200 million Americans voted in the presidential race, as turnout hit its highest level since 1992.

    This year, election experts expect voter turnout to be similarly robust, with Americans eager to make their voices heard in what will probably be a very close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Voters will also have the opportunity to weigh in on thousands of other elections happening at the federal, state and local levels.

    As voters head to the polls, here’s a guide on how to navigate an election night that is guaranteed to be eventful:

    6pm ET: polls start to close

    The first polls will close in eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana at 6pm ET. Democrats’ expectations are low in the two Republican-leaning states: Trump is virtually guaranteed to win both, and Republicans are expected to easily hold most of the two states’ House seats as well.

    7pm ET: polls fully close in six states, including Georgia

    Americans will get their first clues about the outcome of the presidential race at 7pm ET, when polls close in the battleground state of Georgia. Joe Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried the state by 5 points four years earlier. This year, Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the Peach state, but a strong night for Democrats could put Georgia in their win column again.

    As Georgia starts to count its ballots, polls will also close in Virginia, where both parties hope to flip a House seat. Republicans are looking to expand their narrow majority in the House, and the results in Virginia’s second and seventh congressional districts could give an early indication of the party’s success.

    7.30pm ET: polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia

    North Carolina represents one of the largest tests for Harris, who has run neck and neck with Trump in the state’s polling. Trump won North Carolina by 1 point in 2020 and 3 points in 2016, and a loss in this battleground state could doom the former president. Democrats also expect a victory in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, given the recent revelations about Republican Mark Robinson’s disturbing internet activity.

    Meanwhile, the results in Ohio and West Virginia could decide control of the Senate. Republicans are expected to pick up a seat in West Virginia, where the independent senator Joe Manchin decided against seeking re-election; and the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, is facing a tough race in Ohio. If Republicans win both races, that would erase Democrats’ current 51-49 advantage in the Senate.

    8pm ET: polls fully close in 16 states, including Pennsylvania

    This will represent a pivotal moment in the presidential race. Whoever wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes is much more likely to win the White House, a fact that both nominees acknowledged as they held numerous campaign events in the state.

    “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said at a rally in September. “It’s very simple.”

    Pennsylvania will also host some of the nation’s most competitive congressional races. If it is a good night for Republicans, they could flip the seat of the incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey, who is facing off against the former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick.

    But if Democrats have an especially strong night, they may set their sights on Florida, where the final polls close at 8pm ET. In addition to Harris’s long-shot hopes of flipping a state that Trump won twice, the Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is looking to unseat the Republican senator Rick Scott, who has maintained a polling advantage in the race. An upset win for Mucarsel-Powell could allow Democrats to maintain their Senate majority.

    8.30pm ET: polls close in Arkansas

    There won’t be much suspense in Arkansas, as Trump is expected to easily win the solidly Republican state. Arkansas does have the distinction of being the only state where polls will close at 8.30pm ET, but most Americans’ attention will be on the results trickling in from battleground states by this point in the night.

    9pm ET: polls fully close in 15 states, including Michigan and Wisconsin

    This will be the do-or-die moment for Harris. In 2016, Trump’s ability to eke out narrow victories in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin sent him to the White House, but Biden won all three battlegrounds four years later.

    Harris’s most likely path to 270 electoral votes runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year, so Trump could secure a second term if he can pick off even one of those states.

    Michigan and Wisconsin will also play a potentially decisive role in the battle for Congress. Democrats currently hold two Senate seats in the states that are up for grabs this year, and Republican victories in either race could give them a majority. Michigan’s seventh congressional district, which became an open seat after Elissa Slotkin chose to run for the Senate rather than seek re-election, has been described as “the most competitive open seat in the country”.

    In New York, where polls also close at 9pm ET, Democrats have the opportunity to flip several House seats that Republicans won in 2022. If they are successful, it could give Democrats a House majority.

    10pm ET: polls fully close in Nevada, Montana and Utah

    Harris hopes to keep Nevada in her column, as Democratic presidential candidates have won the state in every race since 2008. Trump previously led Nevada polls, but Harris has closed that gap in the final weeks of the race.

    Another two Senate races will come to a close at this point in the night as well. In Nevada, the Democratic incumbent, Jacky Rosen, is favored to hold her seat, but her fellow Democratic senator Jon Tester’s prospects appear grim in Montana.

    If Republicans have not already clinched a Senate majority by the time Montana’s polls close, this may be the moment when they officially capture control of the upper chamber.

    11pm ET: polls fully close in four states, including California

    While Harris is virtually guaranteed a victory in her home state of California, the state’s House races carry important implications for control of Congress. Five House Republicans face toss-up races in California, according to the Cook Political Report, so the state represents Democrats’ biggest opportunity to regain a majority in the chamber.

    12am ET: polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska

    By the time polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska, Americans should have a much better sense of who will be moving into the White House come January. But if 2020 is any indication, the nation may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call on who won the presidential race.

    In 2020, the AP did not declare Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016, it took until 2.29am ET the morning after election day to declare Trump as the winner.

    Given how close the race for the White House is expected to be, Americans might have to settle in for a long night – or even week – to learn who their next president is.

  • Polls on US House and Senate races paint a worrying picture for Democrats | US elections 2024

    As many anxious US election watchers constantly refresh the forecast from 538 in the final days before polls close, their attention tends to focus on the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the polling website’s forecasts of the battle for House and the Senate paint an even more worrying picture for Democrats.

    As of Saturday evening, 538 gives Trump a 50% chance of winning the presidential race, while Republicans have a comfortable 90% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a narrower 52% chance of maintaining their House majority.

    Those numbers reflect a reality that is chilling to left-leaning Americans: Republicans have a decent shot at winning not just the White House but full control of Congress.

    Even without majorities in both chambers of Congress, Trump’s victory in the presidential race would give him significant control over US foreign policy and the makeup of the federal government, both of which he is seeking to overhaul.

    But a Republican trifecta in Washington would give Trump much more sweeping power to implement his legislative agenda. As the Guardian has outlined through the Stakes project, Trump’s plans include extending tax cuts, rolling back landmark laws signed by Joe Biden and advancing a rightwing cultural agenda.

    One of Republicans’ most oft-repeated campaign promises is that they will extend the tax cuts Trump signed into law in 2017, many of which are set to expire at the end of 2025. An analysis from the non-partisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that making the tax cuts permanent would cost $288.5bn in 2026 alone and disproportionately benefit the highest-income households. The highest-income 20% of Americans would receive nearly two-thirds of that tax benefit, compared with just 1% for the lowest-income 20% of Americans.

    Perhaps the most haunting possibility for Democrats is that Republicans would use their governing trifecta in Washington to enact a nationwide abortion ban. Trump has said he would veto such a policy, but his repeated flip-flopping on the issue has raised questions about that claim. Research has shown that existing abortion bans have forced doctors to provide substandard medical care, and they have been blamed for the deaths of at least four women: Josseli Barnica, Nevaeh Crain, Candi Miller and Amber Thurman.

    With majorities in both chambers, Republicans could also allocate vast resources to assist Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented migrants, which has become a central plank of his re-election platform. While US courts have affirmed that presidents have much leeway when it comes to setting immigration policies, Trump will need Congress to appropriate extensive funds to carry out such a massive deportation operation.

    “The United States is now an occupied country,” Trump said at a recent rally in Atlanta. “But on November 5, 2024, that will be liberation day in America.”

    In addition to advancing Trump’s agenda, Republicans would almost certainly be looking to unravel key portions of Biden’s legacy, including the Inflation Reduction Act. The IRA marked the country’s most significant response yet to the climate crisis and has spurred significant energy-related investments in many districts, prompting some Republicans to suggest that Congress should preserve some of the law’s provisions while repealing others.

    That quandary reflects a potential problem for Republicans if they win full control of Congress: what will they do with the Affordable Care Act (ACA)? When Republicans last held a governing trifecta, during Trump’s first two years in office, they tried and failed to repeal and replace the ACA. The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, recently suggested that there would be “no Obamacare” if his party wins big on Tuesday, according to a video published by NBC News.

    But he seemed to caveat that statement by telling supporters: “The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work, and we got a lot of ideas on how to do that.”

    In recent years, both parties have experienced the pains of governing with narrow congressional majorities, and election experts widely expect the battle for the House and Senate to be especially close this year. During Biden’s first two years in office, his legislative proposals were repeatedly blocked in the Senate despite Democrats holding a majority because of the concerns of two centrist members of their caucus, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

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    When Republicans held a 52-48 majority in the Senate in 2017, they still failed to repeal and replace the ACA because three members of their conference blocked the proposal. Two of those members – Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – are still in the Senate today and may be resistant to various components of Trump’s agenda, particularly a potential abortion ban.

    Despite the potential challenges of narrow majorities, Trump has made clear at every turn that he will use his presidential power to its maximum effect if he wins on Tuesday.

    “With your vote this November, we’re going to fire Kamala and we are going to save America,” Trump said at his recent rally in State College, Pennsylvania. “We will never ever back down, and we will never surrender.”

    The voters will have the final say on Tuesday to determine just how much power Trump and his party will have come January.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:

  • Trump indicates he is open to RFK Jr’s proposal to ban vaccines if elected | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump has suggested vaccines could be banned if he becomes president, in the clearest sign yet of a radical shake-up in public health policy should he put his ally Robert F Kennedy Jr in charge of it.

    Trump on Sunday told NBC that Kennedy, the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and former independent candidate who dropped out and endorsed Trump, would have a “big role in the administration” if wins Tuesday’s presidential election. Trump said he would talk to Kennedy about vaccinations.

    Kennedy has repeatedly claimed that childhood vaccines cause autism, a theory scientists have debunked.

    He has also said in recent days that Trump has promised him control over a broad range of public health agencies if he returns to the White House, potentially putting him in a position to implement his most radical theories.

    Trump did not contradict that claim and held open the possibility of banning certain vaccines.

    “Well, I’m going to talk to him and talk to other people, and I’ll make a decision, but he’s a very talented guy and has strong views,” the Republican nominee told NBC.

    He also appeared to uphold Kennedy’s vow – made on social media last Friday – to ban fluoride in the water supply, a practice that public health experts support as useful in combating dental disease. Kennedy called fluoride “industrial waste” and claimed it was linked to cancer. Health groups insist it is safe.

    Asked by NBC for his views about getting rid of water fluoridation, Trump said: “Well, I haven’t talked to him about it yet, but it sounds OK to me. You know, it’s possible.”

    Kennedy, who sits on Trump’s transition team, claimed last week that he had been promised “control” over a range of public health and food safety agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration.

    Trump has not been specific on what responsibilities Kennedy might hold but told a rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden last week that he would let him “go wild on food” and “go wild on medicines” if he wins the election.

    Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Trump’s campaign, gave further credence to the weight Kennedy’s views might carry in a Trump administration when he told CNN that he could be given access to federal data on vaccines safety. He also appeared to endorse Kennedy’s opinions on the supposed risks of vaccines.

    “He says, ‘If you give me the data, all I want is the data, and I’ll take on the data and show that it’s not safe,’” Lutnick said. “Let’s give him the data. I think it’ll be pretty cool to give him the data. Let’s see what he comes up with. I think it’s pretty fun.”

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  • Illinois man arrested after punching election judge at polling location | US elections 2024

    A man in Illinois punched an election judge at a polling location and was arrested on Sunday, two days before the climax of the US presidential race, according to authorities.

    The man, identified as 24-year-old Daniel Schmidt, was charged with two counts of aggravated battery to a victim over 60, two counts of aggravated battery in a public place, and five misdemeanor counts of resisting arrest and one count of disorderly conduct.

    His case follows numerous attacks on the voting process and threats of violence, the purpose of which often is to create fear and distrust around voting, according to extremist experts.

    Election officials across the US say voting is safe, and voters should not be deterred from casting their ballots in Tuesday’s presidential race.

    In Schmidt’s case, police say they responded to reports of a man causing a disturbance in the voting line at the township office of Orland Park, Illinois.

    Officers arrested Schmidt after learning that he had allegedly entered the building and attempted to cut in front of other voters in line for early voting.

    An election judge at the entrance instructed Schmidt to go to the back of the line and wait his turn. But authorities say that Schmidt refused.

    At that point, another election judge was called to assist, police said – and Schmidt was again instructed to go to the back of the line.

    According to the police, Schmidt then attempted to push past that election judge who stopped him from entering alongside several other staff members.

    Schmidt then reportedly began yelling profanities and punched the election judge in the face, knocking the official’s glasses off. At that point, several other patrons jumped in and restrained Schmidt until the officers arrived.

    Authorities added that, while being arrested, Schmidt also resisted Orland Park officers.

    Schmidt was held overnight on Sunday and transported to Bridgeview courthouse for a detention hearing on Monday morning.

    Ahead of this year’s election, election offices around the country have strengthened their security measures in anticipation of potential violence at the polls, in part in response to a rise in threats and harassment directed at election workers after the 2020 election that Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.

    Trump is running in Tuesday’s election against Kamala Harris.

    Many offices have also trained their workers on de-escalation techniques and conducted drills for active shooters as well as other kinds of attacks.

    In the last week alone, the US has already experienced multiple attacks on the voting process, threats of violence and extremism, including bomb threats, ballots being burned and more.

  • Pennsylvania judge declines to block Elon Musk’s $1m voter prize giveaway | US elections 2024

    The $1m-a-day voter sweepstakes that Elon Musk’s political action committee is hosting in swing states can continue through Tuesday’s presidential election, a Pennsylvania judge ruled on Monday.

    The common pleas court judge Angelo Foglietta – ruling after Musk’s lawyers said the winners are not chosen by chance – did not immediately give a reason for the ruling.

    The Philadelphia district attorney, Larry Krasner, had called the sweepstakes a scam that violated state election law and asked that it be shut down.

    Earlier, an attorney for the billionaire told the court that Musk’s pro-Trump group did not choose the winners of its $1m-a-day giveaway to registered voters at random, but instead picked people who would be good spokespeople for its agenda.

    Musk’s lawyer Chris Gober was trying to persuade the judge that the giveaway was not an “illegal lottery”, as Krasner alleged in a lawsuit seeking to block the contest in advance of Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    “There is no prize to be won, instead recipients must fulfill contractual obligations to serve as a spokesperson for the Pac,” Gober said in the hearing before Foglietta.

    The hearing in the battleground state came just one day before Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will square off in the tightly contested race. Musk and his political action committee are backing the former president, with new figures showing a substantial increase in spending in recent days to at least $169m.

    Musk’s offer is limited to registered voters in the seven states expected to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. America Pac says its two remaining winners will be from Arizona and Michigan, meaning that Musk would probably have been able to continue the giveaway even if Foglietta blocked the lottery.

    “The only people protected by Pennsylvania law are in Pennsylvania,” said Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School.

    Since 19 October, the Tesla CEO has been giving a $1m check every day to a voter who has signed his petition supporting free speech and gun rights. Musk became an outspoken Trump supporter this year and has promoted Trump on his social media platform, Twitter/X.

    Krasner, a Democrat, sued Musk and his political action committee in state court on 28 October to try to block the giveaway, which he called an illegal lottery that violates state consumer protection laws.

    A lawyer for Krasner’s office, John Summers, called Gober’s comments a “complete admission of liability”.

    “We just heard this guy say, my boss, my client, called this random,” Summers said. “We promised people that they were going to participate in a random process, but it’s a process where we pre-select people.”

    Summers later showed the court a clip of Musk at a Trump rally on 19 October telling attendees that America Pac would “randomly” award $1m to people who sign the petition every day until the election. In the video, Musk also said “all we ask” is that the winners serve as spokespeople for the group.

    Krasner took the stand to offer evidence. Under questioning from Summers, he said two Pennsylvania residents had been “scammed for their information” and called the giveaway a “grift” aimed at political marketing.

    He said Musk had repeatedly used the word “randomly” to describe the giveaway, and that none of the documents Pennsylvania voters filled out to enter the giveaway mentioned being a spokesperson.

    “That doesn’t sound like a spokesperson contract,” Krasner said.

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    Philadelphia is the largest city in Pennsylvania. Whichever candidate wins the state will receive its 19 electoral votes out of a total of 270 needed to win.

    The giveaway falls in a gray area of election law, and legal experts are divided on whether Musk could be violating federal laws against paying people to register to vote.

    The US Department of Justice has warned America Pac the giveaway could violate federal law, but federal prosecutors have not taken any public action.

    Meanwhile, new federal disclosures show that Musk and America Pac have spent $169m so far to support Trump, an increase of almost $40m in a week. The Federal Election Commission’s website shows new expenses for digital media slots either for Trump or against Harris, and that more than half – $97m – has been spent on Musk’s troubled canvassing operation.

    The Trump campaign is broadly reliant on outside groups for canvassing voters, meaning the Super Pac founded by Musk, the world’s richest man, plays an outsized role in what is expected to be a razor-thin election.

    “Billionaire campaign spending on this scale drowns out the voices and concerns of ordinary Americans,” David Kass, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness, said in a statement.

    “It is one of the most obvious and disturbing consequences of the growth of billionaire fortunes, as well as being a prime indicator that the system regulating campaign finance has collapsed.”

    Reuters contributed reporting

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  • Trump and Harris scramble to win votes in key states in final day of campaigning | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump began hurtling through four Maga rallies across three battleground states – and delivered a dark and dystopian speech about the supposed “migrant invasion” of murderers and drug dealers – while Kamala Harris put all her last chips on Pennsylvania in a frantic final day of campaigning from both candidates.

    With the polls showing the contest essentially deadlocked between two vastly different political visions, both the ex-president and the vice-president were scrambling on Monday to drive home their message. Though early voting has smashed records across the country, there is still everything to play for in cajoling undecided and unengaged voters to the polls on election day.

    Trump began in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he took to a sports arena on Monday morning to deliver what is likely to be one of his last speeches as a presidential candidate. In a 90-minute address dominated by his virulent stance on immigration, he announced that if elected he would impose a new round of tariffs against Mexico unless it stopped the passage of undocumented migrants across the southern border.

    He threatened Claudia Sheinbaum, the newly ensconced Mexican president, that he would impose tariffs on all Mexican goods coming into the US. “I’m going to inform her on day one or sooner, that if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I’m going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send into” the US, he said.

    In an impressive display of stamina for a 78-year-old, Trump was scheduled to stage four rallies by the end of the final day of campaigning. After Raleigh he is set to address two back-to-back rallies in the supremely important battleground of Pennsylvania, in Reading and Pittsburgh.

    During his address in Reading on Monday afternoon, Trump implored attenders to hit the polls on election day, saying “we have to turn out and vote tomorrow, we’re going to vote, vote, vote”.

    “You built this country, I have to tell you, you’re going to save this country, too because you know, if we win Pennsylvania – not me – if we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole ball of wax,” Trump said later.

    Trump asked those in attendance: “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” He then quickly swooped into promises of prosperity and invoked racist tropes about immigrants.

    “With your vote tomorrow, I will end inflation. I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into this country, and I’ll bring back the American dream.”

    He will close out his conversation with American voters with a late-night event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

    In contrast to Trump’s three-state dash, Harris was putting all her last chips on Pennsylvania. She started in Scranton, a quizzical location to kick off the final day given it is the birthplace of Joe Biden from whom she has tentatively been attempting to disassociate herself in recent days.

    Next, she appeared in Allentown, a majority Latino city in the heart of the Lehigh Valley, one of the most competitive parts of the state. Speaking in a college gymnasium, she was preceded by a series of speakers who appealed directly and bluntly to the area’s Puerto Rican population and asked them for their vote.

    “I stand here proud of my longstanding commitment to Puerto Rico and her people and I will be a president for all Americans,” she said. Her Allentown rally was the first of three rallies in Pennsylvania on Monday, the only state she is visiting, underscoring its importance to her campaign.

    Her comments came after almost all of the speakers directly appealed to Puerto Rican voters, highlighting the racist joke a comedian made at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rall in which he called Puerto Rico a floating “island of garbage”.

    Harris did not mention Trump at all by name during her remarks, which lasted just under half an hour. But she did allude to ushering in a new era of politics, and she urged Pennsylvanians to make a plan to vote.

    “We have the opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of politics that has been driven by fear and division – we’re done with that,” she said. “America is ready for a fresh start.”

    Elizabeth Slaby, an 81-year-old, was the first person in line for the rally. She arrived at about 6am. She was a registered Republican for more than 50 years, but after the attack on the US Capitol, she changed her voter registration.

    “I never thought I’d see a woman president and now I’m so, so excited,” she said.

    Then she will make an appearance in Allentown and Pittsburgh, before culminating her unexpected bid for the White House in Philadelphia. Her last word will be issued from the legendary steps of the Museum of Art, immortalised by Sylvester Stallone in the 1976 film Rocky, where she will be joined by a host of celebrities including Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

    In the final hours of the race Trump has been showing signs of wear and tear. His voice is hoarse, he looks tired and his energy levels are relatively low.

    “The voice is holding up, just about barely,” he told the Raleigh crowd.

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    Trump spent much of his Raleigh speech veering off his scripted remarks and embarking on long verbal rambles, which he has called his “weave” and claimed was a sign of his “genius”. His peregrinations included the anti-climb panels he ordered to build his border wall, his wife Melania’s bestselling book, Elon Musk’s rocket launches, the grass that was growing on Nasa runways before he came along, and air conditioning and steam baths for dogs.

    Women cheer for Donald Trump during a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Monday. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Trump denigrated leading Democrats, starting with his presidential rival. He called Harris “low IQ” and in a bizarre riff imagined her “turning, tossing, sweating” in her sleep.

    He also called Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the US House, “crazy as a bedbug”, Barack Obama the “great divider”, and said he was waiting to “hit back” against the former first lady Michelle Obama after she had criticised him.

    But the thrust of his closing argument was focused on immigration, and the supposed 21 million unauthorised migrants – “many of them murderers” – whom he claimed had been let into the US by the Biden administration. Even for a presidential candidate who has centered his campaign in anti-immigrant rhetoric, his closing remarks were dire.

    “They’re killing people. They’re killing people at will,” he said, giving gruesome details of specific murders committed by undocumented migrants. “They just walk right into our country and they kill people.”

    Trump’s Raleigh stop marked his final appearance in North Carolina, a critical battleground state that he needs to win if he is to have a clear shot on returning to the White House. Though Democrats have only won the presidential race here twice since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the other time being Barack Obama in 2008), Harris is running neck and neck against Trump.

    The Guardian poll tracker shows Trump ahead by just one point – well within the margin of error.

    In tune with the rest of the country, North Carolinians have been voting early in historic numbers. More than 4 million have already cast their ballots, substantially more than in 2020 and 2016, with the party alignment roughly evenly split between Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

    As part of his last push to secure victory on election day, Trump repeated the lie that the Biden administration and the federal disaster agency Fema had done nothing to help stricken families in western North Carolina following Hurricane Helene. Even that falsehood was tied to immigration.

    “Fema did a horrible job,” Trump said. “The administration, they’re still not there. You know why? Because they’ve spent all their money on bringing in murderers. They spent all their money on bringing in illegal migrants.”

    In fact, Fema’s budget for housing undocumented migrants is ringfenced and has no impact on the agency’s work dealing with disasters. Fema is channeling millions of dollars of federal money to the hurricane-hit region.

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