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  • 27 House Races Rated Toss-up or Favored to Change Parties

    27 House Races Rated Toss-up or Favored to Change Parties

    In the final House Consensus Map, over 350 of 435 seats were rated as safe for the incumbent party. The remaining seats will determine which party controls the House in 2025. See the Battle for Control House Map >>.

    This article will track results for 27 House races rated toss-up or that are favored to flip to the other party. There are other competitive races. Choose a state from the banner at the top of the page for more results.

    Except where specified, the below have a consensus rating of toss-up. They are ordered by poll closing time and then state. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.

    7:30 PM Eastern

    These three North Carolina districts were all significantly changed in midcycle redistricting.

    North Carolina 6

    Open Seat: Democrat Kathy Manning is retiring; no Democrat is contesting the seat. Safe Republican.

    North Carolina 13

    Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Wiley Nickel is retiring. Likely Republican.

    North Carolina 14

    Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Jeff Jackson is the party nominee for Attorney General. Likely Republican.

    8:00 PM Eastern

    Alabama 2

    Open Seat: Republican Barry Moore shifted to District 1 after redistricting made this district less favorable for his reelection prospects. Likely Democrat.

    Maine 2

    Democrat Jared Golden is seeking a 4th term.

    Michigan 7

    Open Seat: Democrat Elissa Slotkin is the party nominee for U.S. Senate.

    Michigan 8

    Open Seat: Democrat Dan Kildee is retiring.

    Pennsylvania 10

    Republican Scott Perry is seeking a 7th term.

    9:00 PM Eastern

    Arizona 1

    Republican David Schweikert is seeking an 8th term

    Arizona 6

    Freshman Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection.

    Colorado 8

    Freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo is running for reelection.

    Iowa 1

    Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking a 3rd term. Leans Democrat.

    Iowa 3

    Freshman Republican Zach Nunn is seeking a 2nd term.

    Louisiana 6

    Open Seat: Republican Garret Graves retiring after redistricting. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a top-two runoff in December. Safe Democrat.

    Nebraska 2

    Republican Don Bacon is seeking a 5th term. Leans Democrat.

    New York 4

    Freshman Republican Anthony D’Esposito is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat.

    New York 19

    Freshman Republican Marc Molinaro is seeking reelection.

    New York 22

    Freshman Republican Brandon Williams is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat. 

    11:00 PM Eastern

    California 13

    Republican John Duarte is seeking a 2nd term. Leans Democrat.

    California 22

    Republican David Valadao is seeking a 3rd term. 

    California 27

    Republican Mike Garcia is seeking a 4th term. 

    California 41

    Republican Ken Calvert is seeking a 17th term. He is the longest-tenured incumbent involved in a toss-up race.

    California 45

    Republican Michelle Steel is seeking a 3rd term.

    California 47

    Open Seat: Democrat Katie Porter ran for U.S. Senate.

    Oregon 5

    Freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is seeking reelection.

    Washington 3

    Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking reelection.

    12:00 AM Eastern*

    *1:00 AM for portions of the Aleutian Islands

    Alaska At-Large

    Democrat Mary Peltola is seeking a third term. If no candidate gets a majority, the winner will be determined via a ranked choice tabulation later this month.

  • US Rep. John Curtis is favored to win Mitt Romney’s open Senate seat in Utah

    US Rep. John Curtis is favored to win Mitt Romney’s open Senate seat in Utah

    PROVO, Utah (AP) — Utah voters are poised to decide whether a Republican representative or his lesser-known Democratic opponent will succeed Mitt Romney in the U.S. Senate.

    U.S. Rep. John Curtis, the longest-serving member of Utah’s House delegation, is highly favored to win in a deep red state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1970. He is viewed as a moderate Republican in the manner of Romney but pledges to carve out his own brand of conservatism if elected.

    Curtis faces Democrat Caroline Gleich, a mountaineer and environmental activist from Park City, who has tried to convince voters that her opponent is not as moderate as he might seem.

    Both are vying to succeed one of Washington’s most prominent centrists and an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump.

    The candidates have often sparred over their differing approaches to climate change, a top issue for both.

    Curtis, 64, is the founder of the Conservative Climate Caucus on Capitol Hill. The coalition pitches GOP alternatives to Democratic climate policies that Curtis says aim to lower emissions without compromising American jobs or economic principles.

    During his seven years in Congress, Curtis has developed a reputation for pushing back against party leaders, such as Trump, who have falsely claimed that climate change is a hoax.

    Gleich, 38, has accused Curtis of pandering to the fossil fuel industry and has criticized him for voting against proposals posed by Democrats that she said could have better protected public lands, air and water.

    Moderate Republicans tend to prevail in statewide elections in Utah, as evidenced by Curtis’ win over a Trump-backed mayor in the June GOP primary.

    Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who make up about half of the state’s 3.4 million residents, have been a reliably Republican voting bloc for decades. But many have been hesitant to embrace Trump and his allies, saying the former president’s brash style and comments about immigrants and refugees clash with their religious beliefs.

    Polls statewide open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.