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الوسم: General

  • 538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

    538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

    By 270toWin Staff

    August 23, 2024, 5:42 PM ET

    The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election. 

    “538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty about how the rest of the election could impact the state of the race. With 75 days to go, we think anything from a clear Trump victory to a clear Harris win is possible (while a close win either way is most likely).”

    In the image below, the Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

    The map updates at 5:00 PM Eastern Time daily. Click the image for an interactive version.

  • 2024 General Election: Poll Closing Times

    2024 General Election: Poll Closing Times

    By 270toWin Staff

    October 27, 2024, 5:28 PM ET

    Do not rely on this information to determine when to vote. Your polling place may have different hours.

    Standard Time returns Sunday, November 3 at 2:00 AM local time. 

    While there are some local exceptions, the maps on this page largely reflect the latest in-person poll closing times for the November 5, 2024 general election.

    The first map converts all times to Eastern Standard Time. This is useful as a chronological guide to when results will start becoming available through the evening. The second map displays closings in local time.

    In most states that span two time zones, polls close at the same local time. In those cases, the Eastern Time Zone map will show two times. For statewide races, the later time is the earliest that media outlets will call or characterize the race. Of course, it could take much longer. 

    In Nebraska and Tennessee, polls close simultaneously. In these cases, it is the local time map that will show two times.

    The Eastern Time Zone map is also available on our Poll Closing Times URL. Toward the bottom of that page is a table that shows the number of Senate, Governor, and House races at each closing time, as well as the number of electoral votes. Below that is a breakdown of congressional districts in seven states where not all close at the same time.

    Eastern Standard Time 

    Local Time