الوسم: lead

  • Justices who split on an abortion measure ruling vie to lead Arkansas Supreme Court

    Justices who split on an abortion measure ruling vie to lead Arkansas Supreme Court

    LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — Two justices who split on whether Arkansas voters should have the chance to scale back the state’s abortion ban are both vying to lead the state Supreme Court, though the election won’t affect the court’s conservative tilt.

    Justices Rhonda Wood and Karen Baker are running to replace Chief Justice Dan Kemp in Tuesday’s election, where the state’s four congressmen are fending off challenges from Democratic candidates.

    Voters will also be asked to approve a constitutional amendment that would revoke the license issued by a state panel for a casino.

    A historic race for chief justice

    No matter if Wood or Baker wins, history will be made: For the first time, Arkansas will elect a woman to chief justice of its Supreme Court.

    The two justices were on opposites sides of the debate over whether to keep a measure on the ballot that would have scaled back an Arkansas law banning nearly all abortions.

    Wood wrote the court’s 4-3 majority opinion that upheld the state’s decision to reject petitions submitted in favor of the proposal. The court ruled sponsors of the measure did not comply with paperwork requirements for paid signature gatherers.

    In a blistering dissent, Baker asked: “Why are the respondent and the majority determined to keep this particular vote from the people?”

    Though the seats are nonpartisan, Wood is running with the endorsement of the Republican Party of Arkansas’ state committee, Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and GOP Sen. Tom Cotton. Conservatives are already ensured a 5-2 majority on the court, with Sanders slated to fill two vacancies on the seven-member court after the election.

    Arkansas has had one woman serve as chief justice, but Betty Dickey was appointed to the post by former Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2003, not elected.

    Republicans look to defend U.S. House seats

    All four of Arkansas’ Republican congressmen are fending off challenges from Democrats who are trying to break the GOP’s hold on all of the state’s federal seats.

    Rep. Rick Crawford is running against Democrat Rodney Govens for the 1st District, which covers east Arkansas. Crawford was first elected in 2010 to represent the district, which includes Jonesboro and West Memphis. He is a senior member of the House Agriculture Committee and has said he’ll seek the top Republican spot on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Govens is a Cabot resident who has worked in the telecommunications industry. Libertarian nominee Steve Parsons is also running.

    Rep. French Hill faces Democrat Marcus Jones in the race for the 2nd District, which includes Little Rock and surrounding areas. Hill was first elected to the seat in 2014 and is vice chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Jones is a retired Army colonel who served as senior Army adviser to the Arkansas Army National Guard at Camp Robinson.

    In northwest Arkansas’ 3rd District Rep. Steve Womack is running against Democrat Caitlin Draper, a clinical social worker. Womack was first elected in 2010 to the district, which includes Fayetteville and Fort Smith. Libertarian Bobby Wilson is also running. Womack, a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, fended off a challenge in the Republican primary earlier this year from a state legislator.

    And in the 4th District, which covers south Arkansas, Rep. Bruce Westerman is running against Democrat Risie Howard, an attorney from Pine Bluff. Westerman was first elected to the U.S. House in 2014 and chairs the House Committee on Natural Resources.

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    Voters decide the fate of planned casino

    A measure on the ballot in Arkansas could block the last of four casinos that voters approved in what has become a battle between the Cherokee and Choctaw nations.

    The proposed constitutional amendment would revoke a license the state issued to Cherokee Nation Entertainment to build a casino in Pope County. Choctaw Nation has spent more than $17 million on the campaign for the proposal.

    Pope County was one of four sites where casinos were allowed to be built under a constitutional amendment that voters approved in 2018. Casinos have already been set up in the other three locations. Cherokee Nation Businesses has spent more than $12 million on the campaign against the amendment.

    Other proposals that would have scaled back the state’s abortion ban and expanded its medical marijuana program were blocked from the ballot by state election officials.

    Another measure that the state Legislature voted to place on the ballot would allow proceeds from the state’s lottery to be used to fund scholarships at vocational and technical schools.

  • Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds | US news

    Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday’s presidential election, eroding Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their vote.

    The former president and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks, as the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.

    As election day nears, however, Trump’s victory odds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores.

    Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.

    a graph showing election betting markets

    But Trump’s chances have apparently dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.

    Another platform priced Harris’s odds as greater than Trump’s for the first time in almost a month. The Democrat had a 53% chance of victory, according to PredictIt, which gave Trump a 51% chance.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he wins the election. If you bet on Harris, on the same platform, on the same day, you would receive $1 for every 43 cents wagered if she wins.

    A striking poll in Iowa that unexpectedly put Harris ahead of Trump sent shock waves through America’s poll-watchers this weekend. Betting market experts say participants consider a range of factors when placing a wager, including the results of such surveys.

    Questions have been raised in recent weeks over activity in the betting markets. When it emerged that one man had wagered more than $30m on a Trump victory on Polymarket, both he and the platform stressed it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.

    “My intent is just making money,” the man, who called himself Théo, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had “absolutely no political agenda”.