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الوسم: Markets

  • Betting markets swing hard to Trump with early election tallies | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump rebuilt a vast lead over Kamala Harris in betting market forecasts as presidential election results were counted on Tuesday night.

    The former president and his allies touted projections from top gambling platforms that put him way ahead of Harris in recent weeks, going so far as to suggest they were more accurate than traditional opinion polls.

    While betting markets narrowed significantly in the final days of the campaign, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend, Trump surged ahead as polls closed on election day.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores. By late Tuesday evening, Polymarket gave Trump a 93% chance of winning back the White House. Kalshi put Trump’s chances at 90% and Harris at 10%. PredictIt put Trump at 90%.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    The forecasts these platforms produced for who was most likely to win the election diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, betting platforms have been putting Trump ahead for weeks.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Tuesday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 93¢ you wagered if he wins the election. These returns had fallen drastically in 24 hours: Polymarket was offering $1 for every 58¢ wagered on a Trump victory the previous day.

    The betting market projections shifted significantly on Tuesday evening as news outlets started issuing their first projections and calls for the election.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • Political bettors hit the jackpot as court clears election markets for comeback

    “This week is the dawn of a new era for financial markets,” said Tarek Mansour, CEO of financial exchange startup Kalshi.
  • Legal U.S. Prediction Markets for President are Live

    Legal U.S. Prediction Markets for President are Live

    By 270toWin Staff

    October 4, 2024, 10:36 AM ET

    For the first time in about a century, it is legal for U.S. residents to trade election contracts in a regulated prediction market. 

    This shift came after a legal battle between Kalshi, a prediction market for event contracts and its regulator, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

    On Friday morning, Kalshi launched a market allowing users to predict the winner of next month’s presidential election. 

    At this early point, market participants are evenly split between Harris and Trump. Click the image for current pricing.

    There are also markets for control of each branch of congress, although these are currently only available in multiples of 5,000 contracts.

    At publication time, Republicans had a 73% chance of winning the Senate, while Democrats were 63% likely to win the House.

    U.S. Senate Control >>

    U.S. House Control >>

    A Kalshi blog post indicated other markets are coming soon.

    Other political prediction markets, including the two below, have been active, but with restrictions.

    Polymarket has seen over $1 billion worth of volume in its Harris vs. Trump market. However, this exchange is not available to U.S. residents. 

    PredictIt operates on a 2014 CFTC waiver, but participants are limited to $850 in any contract.