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How will US Election Day unfold? | US Election 2024 News

Millions of Americans will head to polling booths on Tuesday to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election, in which Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, are locked in a tight race.

There are 230 million eligible voters, but only about 160 million of them are registered. Nearly half of the 50 states in the United States, however, allow on-the-day registration while citizens can vote without registering in North Dakota.

More than 70 million people have already voted through postal ballots or at early in-person polling stations.

Voters will also elect 34 US senators (out of 100) and all 435 members for the US House of Representatives. Additionally, gubernatorial races will take place in 11 states and two territories (Puerto Rico and American Samoa).

The US stretches across six time zones. Using US East Coast time (ET), voting will start as early as 5am (10:00 GMT) on Tuesday and go as late as 1am (06:00 GMT) on Wednesday.

We break down when polls open and close across the states:

5am ET (10:00 GMT)

Polls open at different times from state to state. The earliest voting will start well before dawn in some municipalities in Vermont.

6am ET (11:00 GMT)

Polls open in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. Some polls in Indiana and Kentucky also open.

In Maine, polls open from 6am ET to 10am ET (15:00 GMT) depending on the municipality guidelines. In New Hampshire, polls open from 6am ET to 11am ET (16:00 GMT).

6:30am ET (11:30 GMT)

Polls open in the battleground state of North Carolina as well as the red states of Ohio and West Virginia. States that traditionally back Republicans are called red states.

7am ET (12:00 GMT)

Polls open in Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and South Carolina.

Some polls in Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan also open at this time. In Tennessee, voting starts from 7am ET to 10am ET (15:00 GMT) depending on the municipality.

Georgia is a critical swing state. In the 2020 election, Democrat Joe Biden won by 0.2 percentage points over Trump, making it the narrowest margin of victory that year.

From 1972 to 2016, Republican candidates would usually sweep Georgia. However, races have become tighter in the state recently due to demographic changes.

8am ET (13:00 GMT)

Polls open in Alabama, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. Some polls in Florida, Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota and Texas also open at this time.

In North Dakota, voting starts from 8am ET to 11am ET (15:00 GMT) depending on the municipality.

Arizona recently became a swing state when Biden defeated Trump by 0.3 percentage points four years ago. From 1952 to 2016, the Republican presidential candidate won in Arizona with one exception – Democrat Bill Clinton when he ran against Republican Robert Dole in 1996.

8am ET (13:30 GMT)

Arkansas starts voting.

9am ET (14:00 GMT)

People start casting ballots in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Polls also open at this time in some parts of South Dakota, Oregon and Texas and for the New Shoreham municipality in Rhode Island.

In Idaho, polls open from 9am ET to 11am ET (16:00 GMT) depending on the municipality.

10am ET (15:00 GMT)

Voting starts in California and Nevada as well as some parts of Oregon. In Washington, polls open from 10am ET to noon ET (17:00 GMT) depending on the municipality.

11am ET (16:00 GMT)

Some polls open in Alaska, a state with two time zones. The state’s other polls open at noon ET (17:00 GMT)

12pm ET (17:00 GMT)

Polls open in Hawaii.

Polls start to close at 6pm ET (23:00 GMT)

Some polls in Indiana and Kentucky close.

7pm ET (00:00 GMT)

Polls close in six states: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and the remainder of Indiana and Kentucky.

Trump disputed the 2020 Georgia election result. He was later indicted on charges of election interference there. False claims about election fraud in the swing state in this election are already circulating.

Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina are leaning towards Trump while Virginia and Vermont are expected to go to Harris.

7:30pm ET (00:30 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia.

In 2020 in North Carolina, Trump won the battleground state by 1.3 percentage points over Biden, and in 2016, Trump won the state by 3.6 percentage points over Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

From 1980 to 2020, Republicans have won in North Carolina in every election except 2008 when Democrat Barack Obama won against John McCain by 0.3 percentage points.

Ohio and West Virginia have historically voted Republican, and a Trump win is expected in the two states.

8pm ET (01:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington and the District of Columbia.

Most polls in Michigan and Texas also close at this time.

Pennsylvania is a swing state that Biden won by 1.2 percentage points in 2020. In 2016, Trump won against Clinton by 0.7 percentage points.

After a Democratic win in 1976, Republicans swept the state from 1980 to 1988. From 1992 to 2012, Democrats won Pennsylvania.

8:30pm ET (01:30 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Arkansas, marking a conclusion of voting in half of the US states.

Arkansas is expected to go to Trump because Republicans have won comfortably in the state from 2000 to 2020.

9pm ET (02:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in 15 states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

These include three swing states: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

From 1976 to 2020, Republicans have won in Arizona every election except 1996 and 2020. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 0.3 percentage points. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 3.6 percentage points.

From 1992 to 2020, Michigan has swung blue for Democrats every election except 2016 when Trump beat Clinton by 0.2 percentage points. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in the state by 2.8 percentage points. But US support for Israel’s war on Gaza could turn the sizeable number of Arab American voters in the state towards Trump or the Green Party’s Jill Stein.

Wisconsin has also historically turned blue, doing so in every election from 1988 to 2020 except in 2016 when Trump defeated Clinton by 0.7 percentage points. In 2020, Biden won the state by 0.7 percentage points.

10pm ET (03:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah.

Montana and Utah are expected to go to Trump. Nevada, however, is a swing state.

While Republicans won the state from 1976 to 1988, Democrats have won there since 2008. In 2020, Biden won by 2.4 percentage points. In 2016, Clinton beat Trump by 2.4 percentage points.

11pm ET (04:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.

California is the most populous US state, and it is expected to go to Harris, who is from California and has represented the state in the US Senate and served as its attorney general.

From 1992 to 2020, Democrats have won comfortably in California.

Oregon and Washington are also likely to see a Harris victory while Idaho is expected to go to Trump.

Midnight ET (05:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Hawaii and parts of Alaska.

Trump is expected to win in Alaska while Harris is expected to win in Hawaii.

1am ET on Wednesday (06:00 GMT)

The final polls close in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.

نوفمبر 4, 2024
US Election 2024: How does the US measure up to the rest of the world? | Infographic News

How does the United States compare with other countries on socioeconomic indicators?

These six graphics provide an overview of the economy, demographics, healthcare, education and military spending as voters get ready to cast their ballots on November 5.

Largest economy in the world

The US has the largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately $27 trillion, according to the World Bank. This positions it ahead of other major economies, including China ($17.8 trillion) and Germany ($4.5 trillion)

The US has a GDP per capita of $65,020 – roughly four times the global average, placing it seventh in the world.

The US Treasury has the highest gold reserves in the world, at 8,133 tonnes, valued at about $700bn. This amount is more than double that of Germany’s reserves, which stand at 3,352 tonnes, and three times as much as Italy’s 2,452 tonnes.

While GDP reflects a country’s overall economic output, its gold reserves play a distinct role in the financial landscape by supporting monetary policy and influencing currency stability and trade.

An ageing population

With a population of 335 million, the US is the third most populous country in the world, behind India (1.43 billion) and China (1.41 billion).

However, the population growth rate has been steadily declining, and coupled with an ageing population, presents economic and social challenges, such as maintaining productivity and supporting seniors.

The country’s fertility rate is just 1.84, indicating that the average woman is expected to have fewer than two children in her lifetime, which is below the global average of 2.4 and the replacement rate of 2.1 needed for a stable population without migration.

The countries with the highest fertility rates are Niger (6.64), Angola (5.70) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5.49), while Taiwan (1.11), South Korea (1.12) and Singapore (1.17) have the lowest rates.

The average life expectancy in the US is 81 years, which is slightly higher than the global average of 75 years, but still lower than that of most European and other developed countries.

Quality of life

The US federal minimum wage has been $7.25 per hour since 2009.

Raising the minimum wage is a key election issue, with more than 80 percent of US voters believing the current wage is not enough for a decent quality of life, according to Data for Progress, a progressive US think tank.

With an average work week of 37-52 hours, the annual minimum wage in the US is about $15,080. This is about double the global average of $6,293, but only about half of what minimum wage workers make in countries like Australia ($34,515), New Zealand ($33,487) and Luxembourg ($32,103).

However, when it comes to affordability, such as buying a house, the US ranks among the highest in the world with a price-to-income ratio of 131.3. With 2015 as the base year, this means that the average price of a home in the US has outpaced income growth by more than 30 percent.

Both US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they will introduce tax policies to support first-time homebuyers.

World’s most expensive healthcare

The US has the most expensive healthcare costs in the world, with the country spending more than $12,000 per capita each year.

The high costs for services, medications and insurance premiums create barriers to access, especially for the most vulnerable, leaving many people uninsured or underinsured.

US government healthcare spending is 16.6 percent of the country’s GDP, about seven percent higher than the global average of 7.3 percent.

Despite its relatively high healthcare spending, the US’s Health Index Score is lower than that of many other high-income countries. The Health Index Score measures how healthy people are and their access to healthcare services.

Harris is a strong supporter of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which aims to make health services affordable to more Americans. She has pledged to expand this 14-year-old legislation, but Trump tried to repeal it many times during his 2017-2021 tenure as US president.

Education rankings

According to the Education Data Initiative, public education spending in the US falls short of global benchmarks and lags behind economic growth.

The US spends around 6.1 percent of its GDP on education, which is higher than the global average of 4.7 percent.

When it comes to performance in mathematics, science, and reading, the US scored a total of 1,468 points in the 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

This score exceeds the global average of 1,320 points, but it falls short compared to several Asian countries, including Singapore, which scored 1,679 points, China at 1,605 points and Japan at 1,599 points.

Military expenditure and power

The US spends more on its military than the next 10 highest-spending countries combined, accounting for 39 percent of all global military expenditures.

At nearly $900bn, as a share of GDP, US military expenditure is 3.45 percent, well above the global average of 2 percent.

The US is ranked number one out of 145 countries by the Global Firepower Index, which measures a nation’s war capabilities across land, sea and air.

نوفمبر 4, 2024
What do people in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon think about the US election? | US Election 2024 News

Israel’s war on Gaza has grown increasingly unpopular in the United States, especially among young Americans.

Still, both the Democrat and Republican leadership have insisted they fully support Israel, even as they offer some calls for an end to the conflict, which has spread to Lebanon.

In the US, many Arab and Muslim Americans, as well as other pro-Palestinian progressives, hold the administration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris – who is the Democratic candidate for the presidency – responsible for not doing more to stop the bloodshed. Many say they cannot vote for the candidate in the election, even if Republican candidate Donald Trump has firmly been in the pro-Israel camp.

That has led to a fierce debate over what the best course of action should be for those who want Israel to be forced to stop its military attacks on the Palestinians and Lebanese.

But what about in the places most affected by the policy of whoever the American people will choose to be their next president on November 5? Al Jazeera asked several people in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon. Here’s what they had to say.

Gaza

Ammar Joudeh believes Trump was a disaster for Gaza [Maram Humaid/Al Jazeera]

Ammar Joudeh, from Jabalia

“If Trump wins, disaster has befallen us. Trump’s presidency was disastrous for the Palestinian cause. He recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and normalisation with Arab countries increased.

“If Trump wins, we’ll be displaced to the Sinai Peninsula [in Egypt]. Israel has already enacted much of Trump’s plan to displace us from northern Gaza. If Trump takes office again, he’ll finish the plan.

“More than a year has passed, and we’re still stuck – no work, no water, no safe place, no food. Our sadness is deep.”

Tahani Arafat thinks Trump may be able to end the war on Gaza [Maram Humaid/Al Jazeera]

Tahani Arafat, from Gaza City

“There’s no room for optimism, since current discussions are only about ending the Lebanon conflict, as if we don’t exist. But I expect Trump could end the war or find a quick solution.

“The conflict began under Biden and has raged for eight months with no intervention. If the US had truly pressed to stop it, it would have ended before. Instead, we endure war, annihilation in plain view, and Israel receives unwavering military support.

“The Democrats talk of peace but it’s empty. Biden’s term has been the worst for us; maybe Trump would be more decisive.

“No American president will stand by us.”

Imad Dayeh says Palestinians’ suffering is invisible [Maram Humaid/Al Jazeera]

Imad al-Dayah, from Shati refugee camp

“Our biggest hope here in Gaza is for this war to end. To the American people, I would say: support an immediate end to this war, regardless of who wins the election. Trump’s term was a disaster for us. I hope he never returns, as he’ll only cater to Israel’s demands.

“It’s tragic that halting genocide and ending a yearlong war in Gaza depends on political shifts. To the world, our suffering is invisible, but each passing day is filled with blood, tears, and funerals – a truth everyone should remember.”

Occupied West Bank

Khaled Omran would not vote for anyone in the presidential election if he lived in the US [Aziza Nofal/Al Jazeera]

Khaled Omran, from el-Bireh

“On a personal level, of course, there is no change, but on the Palestinian level, we believe that Trump’s victory will be more bloody.

“If I had the right to vote, I would not vote for anyone. The choice here is between bad and worse. Whatever the result, the next president will support Israel.”

Wafaa Abdel Rahman says Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are as bad as each other [Courtesy of Wafaa Abdelrahman]

Wafaa Abdel Rahman, from Ramallah

“As a Palestinian, the two options are worse than each other. It seems to us as Palestinians like choosing between the devil and Satan.

“If Trump wins, I believe that the war will be resolved in Israel’s favour quickly and more violently. Trump policy is clear and known to us as Palestinians. However, Harris will complete what her successor started and adopt the same position as her party, and thus we will remain in a long-term war without a resolution. In both cases, the result is death for Gaza, but in the second case, it will be a slow and more painful death.

“Sooner or later, there will be negotiations to stop the war on Gaza, even if it takes a long time, but [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu will be more powerful and able to impose his conditions if Trump wins, and he knows full well that he has the green light to eliminate Gaza.

“As my family lives in the Gaza Strip and I work in the Gaza Strip, I can confirm that the Gazans are interested in the election results, as if they are clinging to a straw and the possibility of salvation after these elections.”

Lebanon

Joy Slim says Republican candidate Donald Trump may be the better option for the Middle East [Mat Nashed/Al Jazeera]

Joy Slim, from Beirut

“I think these days, we as Arabs – as Lebanese or Palestinians – are always choosing between bad and worse. That was always the case when it came to Western policy [on the Middle East] and. specifically, American policy.

“Personally, before the war, I was very critical of Donald Trump and what he represents – his right-wing supporters and what they represent in the US and Europe. But after this year, after what Biden’s administration has done with all the unconditional support to Israel, I’m thinking that maybe it’s better if Trump wins.

“Yes, sure, he may ban abortion – which for me, personally, as a woman, it bothers me – but he still represents a hope of stopping the war [in Gaza and Lebanon]. He might withdraw the US’s full support for Israel and I think he thinks more as a businessman and he wants to save [the US’s] money. I think that is enough for me now.”

Sharif Khailee believes that the United States will never abandon Israel [Mat Nashed/Al Jazeera]

Sharif Khailee, from Beirut

“If you speak to different people in Lebanon, people will give you different views. Some will tell you that Harris will continue the war and some say that Trump might try to end it.

“What I personally believe is that American foreign policy will never change, and no matter what happens, they will support Israel. Trump may do it more financially and Harris militarily, but in the end, American foreign policy won’t change.

“It’s because of their relationship. In the end, you can say Israel is a little mini USA in the Middle East and [the US] won’t get rid of it. It’s their only way to be in the Middle East, without actually having themselves here.”

نوفمبر 4, 2024
How does voting work in the US election? | US Election 2024 News
As Election Day in the United States looms, many Americans have already cast their votes in early voting in person or by mail. Others will vote in person at registered polling booths on Tuesday.

Here is how voting in the US works:

Who conducts elections in the US?

The US does not have a centralised election system.

While the Federal Election Commission enforces federal campaign finance laws, including monitoring donations and public funding for presidential campaigns, the elections themselves are conducted by local authorities within each state.

These authorities adhere to local, state and federal laws as well as being guided by the US Constitution. Hence, election rules vary among states. According to Ballotpedia in 2020, more than 10,000 local entities administered elections in the US.

What time do polls open and close?

Timing depends on the state and municipality. Some polls in Vermont, for example, open as early as 5am Eastern time (ET) (10:00 GMT) in a country with six time zones.

In many states, polls open between 7am and 8am ET (12:00 to 13:00 GMT), including Georgia, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Florida.

In Hawaii, polls don’t open until noon ET (17:00 GMT), which is 7am local time.

Polling stations close between 7pm ET and 1am ET (00:00 to 06:00 GMT).

How do voters cast their votes?

In the US, no one is required by law to cast a vote. The US does not have a system of online voting.

Voters are assigned polling locations within each district. These locations are generally public buildings, such as convention centres, libraries, schools and community centres.

In these locations, voters enter private polling booths to fill out their ballots.

Hand-marked ballots

Most voters in the US vote with hand-marked paper ballots. Typically, voters fill in an oval or square next to their preferred candidate’s name.

According to the Philadelphia-based nonpartisan organisation Verified Voting, nearly 70 percent of registered voters live in jurisdictions that use hand-marked paper ballots.

Ballot-marking devices

Some jurisdictions provide ballot marking devices (BMDs) that allow voters to cast their votes on a digital device. The device then produces a paper record of the vote. About 25 percent of registered voters live in jurisdictions that use BMDs for all voters.

Direct recording electronic voting

A small number of voters cast their votes using a direct recording electronic (DRE) voting system, with which voters press a button or touchscreen to cast their votes, which then go directly into the computer system. In 2020, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas used DRE machines, according to the Council of State Governments website.

Some DRE systems are connected to a Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail printer, which produces a paper record of each vote that the voters can confirm before their vote is recorded in the computer.

Five percent of registered voters live in jurisdictions that use DREs for all voters.

How many people have already voted in the US?

All US states allow voters to cast their ballots before Election Day. Mail-in ballots are the most common method of early voting. All except three states also allow in-person voting before Election Day.

In Alabama, early voting started on September 11 as the state distributed mail-in ballots.

As of Sunday, 77,317,453 people in the US had already cast their votes, according to a tracker on AP News. It is estimated that more than 230 million people are eligible to vote in the US. But only about 160 million of them are registered voters, and not all of them will actually vote.

What ID is required to cast a vote in the US?

It depends on the state.
- Thirty-five states require voters to show some form of valid ID. For 25 of these states, this has to be a photo ID. Commonly accepted forms of ID include a driver’s licence or passport.
- Fifteen states do not require voters to show any ID at polling stations. For example, Nevada does not require voters to bring ID. Instead, voters are asked to sign their name at the polling station, and the signature is compared with the signature and ID they provided when they registered to vote.
Some states that do not require an ID still require voters to show their ID if it is their first time voting or if they did not provide valid ID at the time of registration.

How does the vote count work?

In the US, there is no federal system of counting votes, and the vote count is left up to the states.

Hand-marked paper ballots and ballots marked by BMDs are typically counted using optical scanners and then tabulated digitally to obtain a final tally. Different states have different methods of re-counting and verifying the final count.

States have until December 11 to certify their election results.

What happens next?

The president is not elected directly by the popular vote but instead by the Electoral College.

Under this system, each state has the same number of electors in the Electoral College as its number of seats in the US House of Representatives and Senate. The US has a total of 538 electors, who are appointed by the parties and are almost always party officials or supporters. To win, a candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes.

These electors will meet on December 17 this year to cast the vote for president and vice president.

All states except two operate a winner-takes-all system in choosing their electors, meaning all their Electoral College votes go to whichever candidate wins the most votes.

The only exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, whose Electoral College votes could be split between parties. Their distribution is based on the popular vote within the state and at congressional district levels.

There have been cases in previous elections in which electors have gone against the state’s vote, casting their vote for another candidate. They are called “faithless electors”.

In the highly unlikely but not impossible event of a tie – 269 electoral votes each – the US House of Representatives would decide the next president in what is known as a “contingent election”. Each state’s delegation in the lower chamber of Congress would cast one vote. A candidate must receive a majority of those votes to win.

The US Senate would then choose the vice president with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.

This means it is theoretically possible that Trump could be voted in as president alongside Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz or Harris could be voted in alongside Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance.
نوفمبر 4, 2024
Stock market news for Nov. 4, 2024

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

NYSE

Stocks stumbled on Monday as investors geared up for the U.S. presidential election and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 257.59 points, or 0.61%, to close at 41,794.60. The S&P 500 dipped 0.28% to settle at 5,712.69, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33% to 18,179.98.

Trading was choppy throughout the day. The Dow at one point fell more than 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shuffled between gains and losses.

The Dow was down more than 400 points at its lows on Monday.

Tuesday’s election results could play a pivotal role in where stocks finish off the year. The latest poll from NBC News shows a “deadlocked race” between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, said investors appear to be trying to price in the relatively small changes in the perception of who is likely to win the election.

“This election is too close to call. Neither I nor anyone else has any real edge on what’s likely to happen. So that makes the market’s moves kind of binary,” Goodwin said.

Any market aftershocks may depend on which party takes control of Congress. Major legislative changes would be difficult to pass if control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate is divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep, however, would likely be coupled with a White House victory for the same party, and could mean ambitious spending plans or a tax overhaul.

A small rally for Nvidia helped stabilize the market for most of the day, but the stock closed well off its highs for the session. Shares finished up about 0.5% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced late Friday that the chipmaker would replace rival Intel in the 30-stock Dow. The change, which takes effect at the end of the week, comes as Nvidia continues to rip higher while Intel languishes in the artificial intelligence race.

Nvidia is up 174% year to date, while Intel has lost more than half its value in 2024.

NVDA vs INTC year to date

Elsewhere, utility stocks weighed on the market after federal regulators rejected a Talen Energy request to increase nuclear power at a plant in Pennsylvania to provide more electricity for an Amazon data center. Stocks tied to fossil fuels and solar power both rose, however, and oil climbed 2%.

Financials and health-care stocks were also weak areas of the market, as Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group fell 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively, dragging down the Dow.

Along with the election, Wall Street is also bracing for the latest rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Traders are pricing in a 98% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut at the conclusion of the central bank’s policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. That would follow a half-percentage-point reduction by the central bank in September.

The moves in stocks Monday came as safe-haven U.S. Treasurys rallied, suggesting that some investors may be reducing risk ahead of Election Day. The benchmark 10-year Treasury was trading at a yield of about 4.3% on Monday, down from roughly 4.36% on Friday. Yields on bonds move in the opposite direction from their price.

— CNBC’s Sarah Min contributed reporting

نوفمبر 4, 2024
Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds | US news

Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday’s presidential election, eroding Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their vote.

The former president and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks, as the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.

As election day nears, however, Trump’s victory odds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.

Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores.

Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.

a graph showing election betting markets

But Trump’s chances have apparently dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.

Another platform priced Harris’s odds as greater than Trump’s for the first time in almost a month. The Democrat had a 53% chance of victory, according to PredictIt, which gave Trump a 51% chance.

Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

Should you have turned to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he wins the election. If you bet on Harris, on the same platform, on the same day, you would receive $1 for every 43 cents wagered if she wins.

A striking poll in Iowa that unexpectedly put Harris ahead of Trump sent shock waves through America’s poll-watchers this weekend. Betting market experts say participants consider a range of factors when placing a wager, including the results of such surveys.

Questions have been raised in recent weeks over activity in the betting markets. When it emerged that one man had wagered more than $30m on a Trump victory on Polymarket, both he and the platform stressed it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.

“My intent is just making money,” the man, who called himself Théo, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had “absolutely no political agenda”.

نوفمبر 4, 2024
Trump and Harris hold final campaign rallies on eve of US election | US Election 2024 News

A presidential election unlike any other in US history is entering its last full day with Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and their campaigns scrambling to get supporters to the polls.

The electorate is divided down the middle, both nationally and in the seven battleground states expected to decide the winner on Tuesday.

Trump, a 78-year-old Republican, survived two assassination attempts, just weeks after a jury in New York – the city whose tabloids first elevated him to national fame and notoriety – made him the first former US president to be convicted of a felony.

Harris, 60, was catapulted to the top of the Democratic ticket in July – giving her a chance to become the first woman to become president – after President Joe Biden, 81, had a disastrous debate performance and dropped his re-election bid under pressure from his party.

Polls show Harris and Trump running neck and neck nationally and in the battleground states. More than 78 million voters have already cast ballots, according to Election Lab at the University of Florida.

In the final days of this campaign, both sides are flooding social media sites and TV and radio stations with a last round of campaign ads, and racing to knock on doors and make calls.

Harris’s campaign team believes the sheer size of its voter mobilisation efforts is making a difference and says its volunteers knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors in each of the battleground states this weekend.

“We are feeling very good about where we are right now,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters.

The campaign says its internal data shows that undecided voters are breaking in their favour, particularly women in the battleground states, and that they see an increase in early voting among core parts of their coalition, including young voters and voters of colour.

Trump’s campaign has its own in-house canvassing operation, but has effectively outsourced most of the work to outside super PACs (political action committees), which can raise and spend unlimited sums of money.

They have been more focused on contacting “low propensity” voters, or voters who often do not go to the polls, instead of appealing to middle-of-the-road voters who can flip to either side.

Many in this category are Trump supporters, but they are not normally reliable voters. However, Trump has had success in getting them to turn out in the past.

By cherry-picking the voters they want to contact, Trump and his team say they are sending door knockers to places where it makes a difference and being smart about spending.

US voters will also cast their ballots for thousands of local, state and federal officials and weigh in on crucial referendums.

This includes all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 34 seats or one-third of those in the US Senate, 11 elections for state governors, as well as abortion rights in 10 states.

‘Everything will work out well’

Trump has promised “retribution”, including prosecuting his political rivals, and described Democrats as the “enemy within”.

On Sunday, he complained about gaps in the bullet-proof glass surrounding him as he spoke at a rally and mused that an assassin would have to shoot through the news media to get him.

Harris has cast Trump as a danger to democracy but sounded optimistic at a Detroit church on Sunday.

“As I travel, I see Americans from so-called red states to so-called blue states who are ready to bend the arc of history towards justice,” Harris said. “And the great thing about living in a democracy, as long as we can hold on to it, is that we have the power, each of us, to answer that question.”

Voters responding to a late-October Reuters/Ipsos poll ranked threats to democracy as the second-biggest problem facing the US today, just behind the economy.

Trump believes concerns about immigration, the economy and high prices, especially for food and rent, will carry him to the White House.

His final day of campaigning on Monday will include stops in three of the seven battleground states expected to determine the winner.

“This is really the end of a journey, but a new one will be starting,” said Trump, speaking at his first rally of the day in Raleigh, North Carolina.

“Hopefully, everything will work out well. We’re way leading,” he said, urging people to “get out and vote”.

Trump will also visit Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, where the Arab-American vote could be crucial. He then plans to return to Palm Beach, Florida, to vote and await election results.

Harris started off Monday in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where she urged a room of campaign workers to “enjoy this moment” as she thanked everyone for volunteering.

“Let’s get out the vote. Let’s win. Let’s get to work. Twenty-four hours to go,” she said. “We are all in this together. We rise and fall together.”

Harris also plans to spend Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania’s Allentown, one of the most competitive parts of the state, with a large Puerto Rican electorate energised by pejorative remarks made during a recent Trump campaign rally. Then, she will visit a Puerto Rican restaurant in Reading with progressive New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, before heading on to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Her evening rally in Pittsburgh will feature performances by DJ D-Nice, Katy Perry and Andra Day, before she rallies at the Philadelphia Museum of Art, famous for the “Rocky Steps” and featuring a statue of the fictional Hollywood movie boxer.

نوفمبر 4, 2024
US election 2024: What are Harris and Trump’s positions on the key issues? | US Election 2024 News
Here are the presidential candidates’ positions on the economy, immigration, foreign policy and more.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have spent months pitching their different visions for the United States.

The presidential candidates, representing the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, diverge on most of the policies advocated to solve the country’s problems while only agreeing on some.

Al Jazeera has taken a closer look at their campaign platforms and promises to compare their positions on the key issues facing the US.

Economy and Manufacturing

Kamala Harris:
- Cut taxes for “more than 100 million working and middle-class Americans” by restoring Child Tax Credits and Earned Income Tax Credits
- Increase long-term capital gains tax from 20 percent to 28 percent, and corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent
- Federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries
- Focus on Harris’s ‘Opportunity Economy Agenda’, which the campaign frames as a “plan to help small businesses and entrepreneurs innovate and grow”
- A goal of 25 million new business applications in her first term by raising startup expense tax deduction from $5,000 to $50,000
- Resist “unfair trade practices” from China or any other country “that undermines American workers”
- Ensure the US is a leader in the “industries of the future”, such as semiconductors, clean energy and artificial intelligence
Donald Trump:
- End inflation
- Cut corporate tax rate to 15 percent
- Would consider significantly increasing the child tax credit
- Cut government spending
- US becomes the biggest energy producer in the world “by far”, and brings down the cost of energy
- Bring supply chains to the US, stop outsourcing, turn the US into a “manufacturing superpower”
- Prevent the importing of Chinese-made vehicles and protecting the US automobile industry
- Nativist economic policy – “Buy American, hire American”
- Increase tariffs on foreign-made goods, while bringing down taxes
Immigration

Harris:
- Says immigration system is “broken”, and needs “comprehensive reform”
- Supports border security bill that would increase detection technology to intercept drugs
- Add 1,500 border security agents
- Provide an “earned pathway to citizenship”
- Increase legal immigration by increasing the number of employment-based and family visas
Trump:
- Deport millions of undocumented migrants in the “largest deportation operation in American history” using military and National Guard
- “Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion” by using military troops on the US-Mexico border and constructing detention facilities there, reinstate ‘Remain in Mexico’, which forces asylum-seekers to stay in Mexico until their immigration court cases have been resolved
- End birthright citizenship for children of undocumented parents
- Impose ideological screening of immigrants
- Proposed automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US universities
- Blames immigration for rising housing, education and healthcare costs
Housing

Harris:
- Build three million affordable homes
- Reduce regulations to make it faster to build homes
- Penalise companies that hoard homes and drive prices up
- Provide first-time homebuyers with up to $25,000 for downpayments
Trump:
- Reduce mortgage rates by bringing down inflation
- Open up some federal land for homebuilding
- Reduce housing costs by reducing the number of immigrants, who Trump blames for rising prices
Workers’ rights

Harris:
- Sign pro-union legislation such as the Protecting the Right to Organize Act (PRO Act), which would limit the power of employers to interfere in trade unions, as well as protecting striking workers
- End taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers
- Fight to raise the minimum wage and end sub-minimum wages for tipped workers
Trump:
- Tax cuts for workers and no taxes on tips
- End taxes on overtime pay
- Both Trump and running mate JD Vance reject the PRO Act, Trump has floated the idea of firing workers who are on strike
Foreign policy

Harris:
- Protect US forces and interests “from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups”, and ensure Iran never becomes a nuclear power
- Back Israel’s “right to defend itself”, and ensure Israel has the ability to do so, rejecting the arms embargo
- Work to end the war in Gaza, “allow Palestinians to realise their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination”
- Stay ahead of China and hold it responsible for human rights violations, while supporting “Taiwan’s ability to defend itself”. Opposes pulling out of an economic relationship with China, instead focusing on “protecting American interests”
- Support Ukraine against Russia for “as long as it takes”
Trump:
- “Peace through strength” that will “prevent World War Three”
- Focus on the threat of China and “secure strategic independence” from China while revoking Beijing’s “most favoured nation” status. Trump has also said that he wants a “good relationship” with China and has praised President Xi Jinping, saying Taiwan should pay for US protection
- Stand with Israel, seek peace in the Middle East
- End the war in Ukraine, no commitment for additional aid for Ukraine against Russia
Crime and Justice

Harris:
- Ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, while requiring more background checks and supporting red flag laws that prevent guns from getting into the hands of “dangerous people”
- Invest in law enforcement
- End opioid epidemic
- No presidential immunity for crimes committed while in office
- Supreme Court reforms, including requiring Justices to comply with ethics rules and imposing term limits
Trump:
- Stop the “migrant crime epidemic”
- Defeat foreign drug cartels and end gang violence, called for the death penalty for drug dealers
- Provide police with immunity from prosecution
- Supported rehabilitation for nonviolent offenders in line with criminal justice reform law passed during his presidency
Environment

Harris:
- Build on Inflation Reduction Act, which included green initiatives designed to tackle climate change
- Continue US global leadership on the climate
- “Fight for the freedom to breathe clean air, drink clean water, and live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis”
Trump:
- Withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- Cancel electric vehicle mandates
- Remove environmental regulations, such as restrictions on fossil fuel production, deemed “burdensome”
- Push back against the Inflation Reduction Act
- Push for nuclear energy
Education

Harris:
- Ensure affordability of childcare and preschool for children
- End the “unreasonable burden of student loan debt” and make higher education more affordable
- Oppose private school vouchers and tuition tax credits
Trump:
- Close the Department of Education, make the states responsible for education
- Has proposed giving money to families to spend on private school tuition and homeschooling
- Cut federal funding for schools pushing “critical race theory” and “radical gender ideology”
- Deport “pro-Hamas radicals”, make “college campuses safe and patriotic again”
Abortion

Harris:
- Prevent national abortion ban from becoming law
- Will sign any bill passed by Congress that restores the legality of abortion nationwide
Trump:
- Says abortion is a state-level issue, and has said he will not sign a national abortion ban, but did not say whether he would veto any law passed by Congress
Healthcare

Harris:
- Lower the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, extend $35 cap on insulin to all Americans
- Strengthen Affordable Care Act, and lower healthcare premiums
- Work with states to cancel medical debt for more people
- Guaranteed right to in-vitro fertilisation (IVF), warned against some Republican efforts to restrict it
Trump:
- Says he is “looking at alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act, which he calls too expensive
- Supports increased access to IVF
- Would “probably” disband the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy, calling it “a very expensive solution”
Election laws

Harris:
- Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the Freedom to Vote Acts, which would enshrine voting rights protections and expand vote-by-mail and early voting
Trump:
- Emphasises false narrative that the 2020 election was stolen
- Calls for same-day voting, voter identification, paper ballots and proof of citizenship
نوفمبر 4, 2024