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  • 27 House Races Rated Toss-up or Favored to Change Parties

    27 House Races Rated Toss-up or Favored to Change Parties

    In the final House Consensus Map, over 350 of 435 seats were rated as safe for the incumbent party. The remaining seats will determine which party controls the House in 2025. See the Battle for Control House Map >>.

    This article will track results for 27 House races rated toss-up or that are favored to flip to the other party. There are other competitive races. Choose a state from the banner at the top of the page for more results.

    Except where specified, the below have a consensus rating of toss-up. They are ordered by poll closing time and then state. Vote counts and race projections provided by Decision Desk HQ.

    7:30 PM Eastern

    These three North Carolina districts were all significantly changed in midcycle redistricting.

    North Carolina 6

    Open Seat: Democrat Kathy Manning is retiring; no Democrat is contesting the seat. Safe Republican.

    North Carolina 13

    Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Wiley Nickel is retiring. Likely Republican.

    North Carolina 14

    Open Seat: Freshman Democrat Jeff Jackson is the party nominee for Attorney General. Likely Republican.

    8:00 PM Eastern

    Alabama 2

    Open Seat: Republican Barry Moore shifted to District 1 after redistricting made this district less favorable for his reelection prospects. Likely Democrat.

    Maine 2

    Democrat Jared Golden is seeking a 4th term.

    Michigan 7

    Open Seat: Democrat Elissa Slotkin is the party nominee for U.S. Senate.

    Michigan 8

    Open Seat: Democrat Dan Kildee is retiring.

    Pennsylvania 10

    Republican Scott Perry is seeking a 7th term.

    9:00 PM Eastern

    Arizona 1

    Republican David Schweikert is seeking an 8th term

    Arizona 6

    Freshman Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection.

    Colorado 8

    Freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo is running for reelection.

    Iowa 1

    Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking a 3rd term. Leans Democrat.

    Iowa 3

    Freshman Republican Zach Nunn is seeking a 2nd term.

    Louisiana 6

    Open Seat: Republican Garret Graves retiring after redistricting. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a top-two runoff in December. Safe Democrat.

    Nebraska 2

    Republican Don Bacon is seeking a 5th term. Leans Democrat.

    New York 4

    Freshman Republican Anthony D’Esposito is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat.

    New York 19

    Freshman Republican Marc Molinaro is seeking reelection.

    New York 22

    Freshman Republican Brandon Williams is seeking reelection. Leans Democrat. 

    11:00 PM Eastern

    California 13

    Republican John Duarte is seeking a 2nd term. Leans Democrat.

    California 22

    Republican David Valadao is seeking a 3rd term. 

    California 27

    Republican Mike Garcia is seeking a 4th term. 

    California 41

    Republican Ken Calvert is seeking a 17th term. He is the longest-tenured incumbent involved in a toss-up race.

    California 45

    Republican Michelle Steel is seeking a 3rd term.

    California 47

    Open Seat: Democrat Katie Porter ran for U.S. Senate.

    Oregon 5

    Freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is seeking reelection.

    Washington 3

    Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking reelection.

    12:00 AM Eastern*

    *1:00 AM for portions of the Aleutian Islands

    Alaska At-Large

    Democrat Mary Peltola is seeking a third term. If no candidate gets a majority, the winner will be determined via a ranked choice tabulation later this month.

  • GOP tries to break Connecticut Democrats’ winning streak in US House races

    GOP tries to break Connecticut Democrats’ winning streak in US House races

    It has been 18 years since Connecticut voted to send a Republican to Washington. Republican George Logan will try to end the party’s long losing streak Tuesday in a rematch with U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes, the three-term Democrat who defeated him two years ago by a margin of less than 1% of the vote.

    The race between Hayes and Logan is among the state’s most closely watched contests on an Election Day when voters will also choose state legislators, a U.S. senator and the next U.S. president.

    In their first matchup in 2022, Hayes defeated Logan by just 2,004 votes. This time, Hayes is hoping to get an extra boost from sharing the ballot with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    “There’s absolutely a lot more enthusiasm since Harris entered the race at the top of the ticket,” said Hayes, the first Black woman to represent Connecticut in Congress. “We have had at all of our headquarters throughout the district, people show up to volunteer, women show up to phone bank or door knock.”

    Logan, a mechanical engineer and former state senator who now works as a community relations director for a public water supply company, has promoted himself as an independent-minded Republican who wouldn’t be beholden to the national party.

    He has also focused heavily on his personal background. If elected, the Afro-Latino son of Guatemalan immigrants would become the first Hispanic member of Congress from Connecticut.

    “I believe Washington is broken and needs to be fixed. I want to be part of the solution,” he told reporters after a debate with Hayes. “I want to work in a bipartisan basis.”

    The race is playing out in a district in the northwestern part of the state where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2020.

    Logan said he would vote for Trump, but he has walked a careful line on the campaign trail.

    He avoided talking about the Republican presidential nominee or aligning himself with Trump’s policies and the MAGA movement. Instead, he spoke repeatedly about being focused on the needs of the district and not the contentious presidential race, pledging to be an “independent voice” who would work with whoever won the White House.

    The race has mostly been a reboot of 2022, with Logan even reusing some of his same advertising. He has criticized Hayes for voting “with the failed Biden-Harris administration 99% of the time” and has focused heavily on economic issues. Hayes has accused him of being a risk to abortion rights and siding with “extremist” Republicans in Washington. Logan has said he supports abortion rights.

    Connecticut has been challenging territory for Republicans in recent decades. The last Republican to win a House seat representing the state was former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays, who was voted out of office in 2008.

    Incumbent Democrats in the state’s other four congressional districts are also running for reelection, including U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney in the eastern part of the state. He is seeking a 10th term in a rematch race against former Republican state Rep. Mike France, who he beat by 18 points two years ago.

    U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy is also seeking a third term, running in a rematch against Republican Matt Corey, a small business owner who has pitched himself as “the fighter Donald Trump needs by his side.” Murphy defeated Corey by a wide margin in 2018.

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    The last Republican senator from Connecticut was Lowell Weicker, who lost in 1988 and later left the party.

    All state legislators are also up for reelection this year. Democrats currently hold a two-thirds majority in the state Senate but are just short in the House of Representatives. If they secure a net gain of three House seats, without losing any Senate seats, Democrats will have a supermajority in the General Assembly needed to override a gubernatorial veto.

  • Election 2024: Brian Jack, Congressman Bishop likely to win high-profile Georgia races

    Election 2024: Brian Jack, Congressman Bishop likely to win high-profile Georgia races

    ATLANTA (AP) — A one-time aide to former President Donald Trump will likely win election to Congress from Georgia on Tuesday, while a longtime representative will likely clinch his 17th term in the U.S. House against a former Trump administration official.

    Those will be the two highest-profile congressional races in the state in an election where no statewide candidates are on the ballot. Voters across Georgia will be deciding three referendums, including a measure limiting increases in a home’s value for property tax purposes. But the most competitive elections will be in a handful of state House races, where Democrats are trying to reduce the Republican majority.

    Both major parties are contesting all 14 of Georgia’s congressional districts, where Republicans currently hold a 9-5 majority. Each party is favored to maintain control of all the seats they currently hold, an outcome that would not affect the balance of power in the narrowly divided U.S. House.

    Brian Jack, the former Trump aide, has left no distance between himself and his old boss as Jack tries to win his first term in the House from Georgia’s 3rd Congressional District. The GOP-tilting district south and west of Atlanta is open because U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson is retiring.

    A 36-year-old Peachtree City native, Jack was the political director in Trump’s White House and later worked for former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Trump’s repeated endorsement and access to McCarthy’s fundraising network carried Jack to victory in a crowded Republican primary. He now faces Democrat Maura Keller, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and Fayetteville resident.

    She’s running on a platform of abortion rights, better veterans services and higher wages, while Jack emphasizes that he’d be a partner to Trump on economic and immigration issues.

    In the next highest profile race, Republican Wayne Johnson of Macon faces an uphill race to unseat longtime incumbent Democrat Sanford Bishop in southwest Georgia’s 2nd District.

    Bishop won reelection in 2022 despite Republican hopes of ending his long tenure. Johnson, who worked in the U.S. Department of Education, has pledged to focus on the economic well-being of constituents. The 2nd District runs across 30 counties in southwest Georgia, stretching into Columbus and Macon.

    Bishop calls himself a moderate, courting largely white farmers who drive the rural economy and supporting military bases. His campaign focuses on his legislative achievements and what his seniority helps him accomplish.

    Before all Georgia voters is an effort to curb rising property tax bills by limiting how much of a home’s increasing value can be taxed. The state constitutional amendment would limit increases in a home’s value for tax purposes to the broader rate of inflation each year.

    Supporters say it will protect current homeowners from ever-higher property tax bills, but opponents warn that the caps will unfairly shift the burden onto new homeowners, renters and other property holders.

    Georgia is one of eight states where voters will decide property tax measures, showing how rising tax bills are influencing politics nationwide.

    From 2018 to 2022, the total assessed value of property across Georgia rose by nearly 39%, according to the Georgia Department of Revenue. Most governments pocketed increased revenues without raising tax rates, boosting employee pay and other spending.

    The 2024 election is here. This is what to know:

    News outlets around the world count on the AP for accurate U.S. election results. Since 1848, the AP has been calling races up and down the ballot. Support us. Donate to the AP.

    Lawmakers proposed the amendment after hearing from constituents angry about rising tax bills. The protection would last as long as someone owns their home. The assessed value would reset to the market value when a home is sold, with new homeowners then getting the benefit of the cap on the higher price.

    Dozens of Georgia counties, cities and school systems already operate under local assessment caps. But school systems have been wary, warning the cap could starve them of needed funds. Most school districts can’t raise property tax rates above a certain level.

    To ease schools’ concerns, the measure gives local governments and school districts until March 1 to opt out. Any that do not would be permanently governed by the cap.

    Beyond the presidential race, Georgia’s most competitive elections this year are in a handful of the state’s 180 state House districts. Democrats are trying to reduce the Republicans’ current 102-78 majority in the lower chamber of the General Assembly.

    The hardest fought districts include six stretching across northern Atlanta suburbs in Fulton and Gwinnett counties. Each party is trying to wrest away three districts held by the other. Democrats have campaigned on overturning Georgia’s current abortion restrictions, doing more to limit guns, and expanding the Medicaid program to more low-income adults. Republicans have touted their support for low taxes, police and school vouchers.

  • US elections 2024: 10 key House races to watch | House of Representatives

    Much attention has been paid to the historic race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the results of down-ballot elections will determine whether the new president will actually be able to implement a legislative agenda next year.

    With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to wrest back control of the lower chamber, and both parties are going all out to win.

    Here are ten House races to watch this year:

    Arizona’s first congressional district

    Republican incumbent David Schweikert is running for re-election in this toss-up district, which covers north-east Phoenix and Scottsdale. As one of 16 House Republicans representing districts that Joe Biden won in 2020, Schweikert is vulnerable, and Democrats have identified the seat as one of its top targets this year.

    After post-2020 redistricting moved the district to the left, physician Amish Shah won a crowded Democratic primary there in July. Given that Schweikert secured re-election by less than one point in 2022 and a recent Democratic internal poll showed the two candidates virtually tied, this race will be a hard-fought sprint to the finish line.

    California’s 45th congressional district

    Republican congresswoman Michelle Steel has emerged victorious from some tough political battles in the past, as she won re-election by five points in 2022, but Democrats hope to bring an end to that winning streak this year.

    A recent poll showed Democrat Derek Tran with a narrow lead over Steel in this district, which covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. The Cook Political Report gives Democrats a two-point advantage in the district, but Steel has proven adept at overcoming difficult odds.

    Iowa’s third congressional district

    Freshman Republican Zach Nunn was previously favored to win re-election in this Des Moines area district that Trump narrowly carried in 2020. Nunn flipped the seat in 2020 after defeating incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne by less than one point.

    This time around, Harris is in a strong position to win the district, and Democrat Lanon Baccam’s strong fundraising record has helped put the seat in play for his party.

    Maine’s second congressional district

    Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is running for a fourth term in this perpetual swing district that Republicans have repeatedly tried and failed to flip. Golden defeated former Republican congressman Bruce Poliquin by six points in 2022, even though Trump carried the district by six points two years earlier, according to data compiled by Daily Kos.

    But this time around, Republicans believe they have a strong candidate in Austin Theriault, a state representative and former professional racecar driver who held a slight lead over Golden in a recent poll. Golden has proven politically resilient in this right-leaning district, so a loss could point to broader electoral problems for Democrats in November.

    Michigan’s seventh congressional district

    Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate has created an opening in this bellwether district, which both parties have identified as a key target this year.

    Former Republican state senator Tom Barrett is running again after losing the 2022 election to Slotkin by six points, and he will face former Democratic state senator Curtis Hertel. The Cook Political Report has described the district as “the most competitive open seat in the country”, so the results here could have much broader implications in the battle for the House.

    Nebraska’s second congressional district

    This district will play a key role in both the presidential race and the battle for the House. Like Maine, Nebraska allocates a portion of its electoral votes based on congressional districts, and Harris is favored to win the electoral vote of the second district.

    With more attention on the second district because of the presidential race, Republican incumbent Don Bacon is facing some tough headwinds in his re-election bid. Bacon defeated Democrat Tony Vargas by just three points in 2022, and recent polls show Vargas opening up a small lead in this year’s rematch.

    North Carolina’s first congressional district

    Freshman Democratic congressman Don Davis is running for re-election in this north-eastern North Carolina district, which shifted to the right after the latest round of redistricting.

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    Much to the relief of Republican strategists, Laurie Buckhout won the congressional nomination over Sandy Smith, a hard-right firebrand who lost to Davis by five points in 2022.

    Republicans are hopeful that Buckhout’s impressive résumé as an army veteran and founder of her own consulting firm, combined with the more favorable district lines, will be enough to unseat Davis. But the incumbent held a six-point lead over his Republican challenger as of late September, one survey found.

    New York’s 17th congressional district

    Mike Lawler made headlines when he defeated incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, then the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, by less than one point in 2022. This year, Maloney will face off against former Democratic congressman Mondaire Jones in this Hudson valley district that went for Biden in 2020.

    Lawler did not get dealt the worst hand from New York’s redistricting process; that distinction goes to fellow Republican freshman Brandon Williams, whose Syracuse-area seat went from Biden +7 to Biden +11, according to the Cook Political Report.

    All the same, Lawler will face stiff competition in a race that will be closely watched for broader electoral trends in November. If he cannot hold on to the seat, it could spell trouble for Republicans up and down the ballot.

    Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district

    This seat may be harder for Democrats to flip, as the Cook Political Report gives Republicans a five-point advantage in the district. The hard-right views of Republican incumbent Scott Perry, who allegedly played a “central” role in Trump’s campaign to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, could allow Democrat Janelle Stelson to pull off an upset.

    Stelson, a former local news anchor, has focused her pitch on attacking Perry as a symbol of a dysfunctional Congress, and her message appears to be resonating with voters. One poll conducted in October showed Stelson leading by nine points, forcing Perry’s allies to allocate more funding to the race.

    Virginia’s seventh congressional district

    Democrat Eugene Vindman, who first attracted national attention for his role in Trump’s first impeachment trial, is facing a tougher than expected fight in this Virginia district that covers some of the Washington exurbs.

    Democrats are looking to hold the seat, which was left open after congresswoman Abigail Spanberger chose to launch a gubernatorial campaign rather than seek re-election.

    Internal polls show Vindman running neck-and-neck with his opponent, Republican Derrick Anderson, despite the Democrat’s hefty fundraising advantage. A loss in this bellwether district, which Biden won by seven points in 2020, could spell trouble for Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:

  • Polls on US House and Senate races paint a worrying picture for Democrats | US elections 2024

    As many anxious US election watchers constantly refresh the forecast from 538 in the final days before polls close, their attention tends to focus on the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the polling website’s forecasts of the battle for House and the Senate paint an even more worrying picture for Democrats.

    As of Saturday evening, 538 gives Trump a 50% chance of winning the presidential race, while Republicans have a comfortable 90% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a narrower 52% chance of maintaining their House majority.

    Those numbers reflect a reality that is chilling to left-leaning Americans: Republicans have a decent shot at winning not just the White House but full control of Congress.

    Even without majorities in both chambers of Congress, Trump’s victory in the presidential race would give him significant control over US foreign policy and the makeup of the federal government, both of which he is seeking to overhaul.

    But a Republican trifecta in Washington would give Trump much more sweeping power to implement his legislative agenda. As the Guardian has outlined through the Stakes project, Trump’s plans include extending tax cuts, rolling back landmark laws signed by Joe Biden and advancing a rightwing cultural agenda.

    One of Republicans’ most oft-repeated campaign promises is that they will extend the tax cuts Trump signed into law in 2017, many of which are set to expire at the end of 2025. An analysis from the non-partisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that making the tax cuts permanent would cost $288.5bn in 2026 alone and disproportionately benefit the highest-income households. The highest-income 20% of Americans would receive nearly two-thirds of that tax benefit, compared with just 1% for the lowest-income 20% of Americans.

    Perhaps the most haunting possibility for Democrats is that Republicans would use their governing trifecta in Washington to enact a nationwide abortion ban. Trump has said he would veto such a policy, but his repeated flip-flopping on the issue has raised questions about that claim. Research has shown that existing abortion bans have forced doctors to provide substandard medical care, and they have been blamed for the deaths of at least four women: Josseli Barnica, Nevaeh Crain, Candi Miller and Amber Thurman.

    With majorities in both chambers, Republicans could also allocate vast resources to assist Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented migrants, which has become a central plank of his re-election platform. While US courts have affirmed that presidents have much leeway when it comes to setting immigration policies, Trump will need Congress to appropriate extensive funds to carry out such a massive deportation operation.

    “The United States is now an occupied country,” Trump said at a recent rally in Atlanta. “But on November 5, 2024, that will be liberation day in America.”

    In addition to advancing Trump’s agenda, Republicans would almost certainly be looking to unravel key portions of Biden’s legacy, including the Inflation Reduction Act. The IRA marked the country’s most significant response yet to the climate crisis and has spurred significant energy-related investments in many districts, prompting some Republicans to suggest that Congress should preserve some of the law’s provisions while repealing others.

    That quandary reflects a potential problem for Republicans if they win full control of Congress: what will they do with the Affordable Care Act (ACA)? When Republicans last held a governing trifecta, during Trump’s first two years in office, they tried and failed to repeal and replace the ACA. The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, recently suggested that there would be “no Obamacare” if his party wins big on Tuesday, according to a video published by NBC News.

    But he seemed to caveat that statement by telling supporters: “The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work, and we got a lot of ideas on how to do that.”

    In recent years, both parties have experienced the pains of governing with narrow congressional majorities, and election experts widely expect the battle for the House and Senate to be especially close this year. During Biden’s first two years in office, his legislative proposals were repeatedly blocked in the Senate despite Democrats holding a majority because of the concerns of two centrist members of their caucus, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

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    When Republicans held a 52-48 majority in the Senate in 2017, they still failed to repeal and replace the ACA because three members of their conference blocked the proposal. Two of those members – Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – are still in the Senate today and may be resistant to various components of Trump’s agenda, particularly a potential abortion ban.

    Despite the potential challenges of narrow majorities, Trump has made clear at every turn that he will use his presidential power to its maximum effect if he wins on Tuesday.

    “With your vote this November, we’re going to fire Kamala and we are going to save America,” Trump said at his recent rally in State College, Pennsylvania. “We will never ever back down, and we will never surrender.”

    The voters will have the final say on Tuesday to determine just how much power Trump and his party will have come January.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:

  • State of Play: How 2022’s Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

    State of Play: How 2022’s Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

    270toWin contributor Drew Savicki wrote this article. Contact Drew via email or on X @DrewSav. 

    ===

    There were eleven U.S. House races decided by a margin of less than 1% in 2022. This article takes a quick look back at those as well as where things stand for 2024 heading into Election Day.

    Colorado District 3: Western Colorado





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Lauren Boebert 0.2% Leans Republican

    Controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert nearly lost reelection amid Colorado’s blue wave. Thanks to support from Governor Jared Polis’ landslide reelection and a well-funded challenger in former Aspen City Councilor Adam Frisch, Boebert only won reelection by about 550 votes. To avoid a repeat, Boebert decided to seek reelection in District 4 – located on the opposite end of the state. Despite having no ties there, she is expected to prevail in the state’s most conservative district. 

    Republican primary voters in District 3 opted for moderate Republican Jeff Hurd over election denying former State Rep. Ron Hanks. Democrats renominated Frisch. His fundraising continues to be phenomenal, but it’s a seriously uphill battle for him without Boebert as a foil. Most outlets rate this race as Leans or Likely Republican and there seems little reason to question those ratings at this point.

    It is worth noting that Colorado was a state where Democrats handed over control of post-Census redistricting to an independent commission. The 3rd District was shifted two points more Republican. Had the lines used from 2012-2020 been in place for 2022 as well, Boebert would have lost reelection.

    California District 13: Central Valley





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    John Duarte 0.4% Toss-up

    As in Colorado, California’s redistricting is handled by an independent commission. That created a challenge for Democrats in the Central Valley and Sacramento areas. Rep. Josh Harder’s district was largely dismantled and he was placed in a district with fellow Democrat Jerry McNerney. McNerney decided not to run for reelection, thus allowing Harder to shift to the 9th district. The open seat was won by Republican John Duarte.

    This year’s election is a rematch between Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray. Gray, a former Assemblyman, seems to be in a better position this cycle. A mild red wave washed over California in 2022 and Democrats are usually adversely affected by midterm turnout differentials in the Central Valley. A blue collar predominately Hispanic region, the Central Valley is notorious for its low midterm turnout. Longtime Rep. Jim Costa won reelection by just 9% in his Biden +20 district in 2022 as a result of the region’s abysmal turnout.

    Michigan District 10: Northern Detroit suburbs and exurbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    John James 0.5% Leans Republican

    As a blue wave washed over Michigan in 2022, the 10th congressional district stood out. Rep. Andy Levin opted to run against fellow Rep. Haley Stevens in the neighboring 11th District and lost handily in the Democratic Primary. Democrats had a recruiting hole in the 10th District that they filled with an underwhelming nominee in former Judge Carl Marlinga. Two-time US Senate nominee John James was the GOP nominee.

    James ended up winning very narrowly as Marlinga lacked virtually any substantive financial support from his party. Many Democrats (rightly) pointed their fingers at Andy Levin for not running against James. Given the close outcome, Levin would have been the clear favorite. Unfortunately, the decisions made by candidates are made so far in advance one can’t predict the future political environment. At the time Levin challenged Stevens it looked Democrats were going to be swept out in the midterms.

    A recent public poll shows James up 47-44% against Marlinga. This race has flown under the radar but could very well end up being quite close again.

    New York District 17: Lower Hudson Valley





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Mike Lawler 0.6% Leans Republican

    This is where analyzing the House races gets a bit tricky. For months, New York polling suggested a considerable rightward swing from 2020. More recently, however, a string of House polls by Siena college suggested the red wave was off. A poll by SurveyUSA of NY-19 had Democrat Josh Riley leading freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro by 4%.

    Lawler seems like a stronger candidate than the other freshman Republicans from New York. There are a couple of Democratic concerns with this district: one being that it is home to a large and swingy orthodox Jewish population. The Democratic nominee, former Rep. Mondaire Jones has previously represented these communities and his strength with them is what powered him to victory in the 2020 Democratic primary.

    Much has changed in the interim, with the Israel/Hamas war splitting the Democratic Party (particularly in New York). Jones attempted to have it both ways on this issue, which is what led to him losing the minor party line belonging to the Working Families Party (WFP). The WFP nominee has been accused of being a Republican plant. Given that Democrats normally win the WFP line in the general election, this could prove decisive in a close race.

    What few polls we have of this race show the WFP nominee getting a few percentage points. A recent poll from Emerson College puts Lawler ahead 49-44% with one week to go of the campaign. Both Cook and the Crystal Ball rate this race as Leans R and that certainly seems like it will be the case.

    Colorado District 8: Northern Denver suburbs and exurbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Yadira Caraveo 0.7% Toss-up

    Colorado gained an additional congressional district following the census and the newly established redistricting commission certainly drew one heck of a district. Located north of Denver, this district is theoretically meant to be a Hispanic opportunity seat but in reality its Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) is below 40%. The 8th district mixes upscale white voters with Hispanics and white working class voters who predominately work in the state’s oil and natural gas industry.

    Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo faces a tight race from Republican State Rep. Gabe Evans. Caraveo, a pediatrician before she entered politics, is the first Latina to represent Colorado in Congress. Given that background, it’s no surprise that she has heavily emphasized healthcare policy in this race. She has touted her prior work in the Colorado legislature, contrasting that with the difficulties of passing legislation as a Democrat in a Republican-controlled House.

    Which way the 8th District has trended depends on which two elections you compare. The district got nearly 7% bluer from 2016-2020 as the state got 8% bluer. That means it narrowly trended right of the state. On the other hand, if you compare 2012 to 2020, Biden did worse than Obama in the district and did eight points better statewide. This is a really interesting district because Harris may very well see some slippage here from Biden given its large working class population.

    Caraveo is well-funded and now has an incumbent’s advantage. That said, a recent Emerson College poll showed a tight race, with Caravaeo leading 48% to 46%.

    Iowa District 3: Des Moines and southwest Iowa





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Zach Nunn 0.7% Toss-up

    In what most considered to be a surprise, Rep. Cindy Axne declined to run again this cycle, leaving Democrats in a bit of a bind. The party has turned to former USDA official Lanon Baccam as its standard bearer. Both Baccam and freshman Rep. Zach Nunn are very well funded. The outcome may hinge on how strong Donald Trump ends up being at the top of the ticket. While Harris is very likely to lose Iowa, a stronger showing than Biden in 2020 may be enough to propel Baccam to the win.

    We may get some clarity later this weekend, when legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer releases her final 2024 survey. 

    New Mexico District 2: Southern New Mexico





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Gabriel Vasquez 0.7% Leans Democrat

    Leveraging their legislative trifecta, New Mexico was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in post-Census redistricting. The 2nd District was transformed from a Trump to Biden district. Gabe Vasquez narrowly defeated Rep. Yvette Herrell. This year brings a rematch between the two.

    Herrell has noticeably tried to soften her image this year. There is some concern that Democrats will collapse along the border this year and that could very well impact this race. That said, public polls have shown Vasquez leading. Forecast models also have him favored, with 538’s giving him an 82% chance of winning and Split Ticket’s giving him a 79% chance as of the publication date of this article.

    Connecticut District 5: Western Hartford suburbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Jahana Hayes 0.8% Leans Democrat

    This historically Republican district flipped to the Democrats in the 2006 wave. It has remained there, with only occasional strong Republican challenges. In her bid for a third term in 2022, Rep. Jahana Hayes had a closer-than-expected race. Determined to learn from those challenges, Hayes launched her campaign ads early this cycle. However, overall spending in the 5th District has remained relatively modest compared to other competitive House races.

    Hayes, the first Black representative from Connecticut, leans slightly to the left of her constituents. Although she won decisively in 2018 and 2020, a stronger GOP challenge in 2022 caught her off guard, revealing her unpreparedness for a competitive race. While presidential election results may indicate a Democratic advantage here, the district is notably more competitive in down-ballot races. An Emerson College poll released in the closing week of the campaign showed Hayes ahead by 49% to 45%.

    Washington District 3: Vancouver, southwestern Washington





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 0.8% Toss-up

    This is a true tossup race. Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has deliberately cut a moderate image in her narrowly red leaning district. Unlike in 2022, the GOP establishment is going full steam ahead for Joe Kent. Kent has attempted to moderate his image from 2022 and is betting on Trump winning the district again to pull him over the line. It’s a not bad bet but Perez is hoping her strong emphasis on local issues will power her to victory.

    Kamala Harris will easily win statewide but is fairly unlikely to win this district. Trump would have won the district under the current lines by 4% in 2020, and a similar outcome seems reasonable. This race comes down to whether or not enough Republican leaning voters are going to come home to their party and support the controversial Kent. There have been some public polls of this race and they’ve been very close. Perez would ideally like Harris to lose this district by less than Biden’s 2020 performance.

    Arizona District 1: Scottsdale, northeastern Phoenix





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    David Schweikert 0.9% Toss-up

    After narrowly winning reelection in 2022, Rep. Dave Schweikert announced his departure from the House Freedom Caucus. This was a tacit admission that his right wing views put him out of step with this rapidly growing upscale district. Schweikert benefitted from ticket splitting in 2022 as all but one statewide Democrat won his district. 

    Regardless of whether Harris wins or loses Arizona, it seems likely she’ll win this district. The Congressman faces another very tough race this year from Dr. Amish Shah, a former State Representative. He may need ticket splitters to rescue him again in order to keep the seat.

    New York District 22: Syracuse area





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Brandon Williams 1.0% Leans Democrat

    Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams is among the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle. He was the biggest loser in mid-cycle redistricting, which pushed an already blue-leaning district further to the left. It doesn’t help that Williams has been a full-throated Trump supporter.  Democrats nominated a strong candidate in State Senator John Mannion, a moderate Democrat from the area. He defeated Air Force Veteran Sarah Klee Hood in the primary but Dems would have been fine with her as well. In a poor sign for the incumbent, he recently released an internal poll showing the race tied.