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  • Live Results: New Jersey 10th Congressional District Special Primary

    Live Results: New Jersey 10th Congressional District Special Primary

    By 270toWin Staff

    July 16, 2024, 1:43 PM ET

    The death of Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. in April created a vacancy in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district. Party nominees will be chosen Tuesday, with a special general election on September 18.

    The winner of the special election will serve through the end of the year.

    Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.

    Democratic Primary

    Democrats outnumber Republicans 6 to 1 in this Newark-area district; Payne won his final term by a 78% to 20% margin in 2022. As such, this primary has drawn a lot of interest. 

    Eleven Democrats are on the ballot. Most of the party establishment is behind Newark City Council president LaMonica McIver.

    Other notables include “Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker (D-Jersey City), former East Orange Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, and state economic development official Darryl Godfrey.”

    In a related note, Payne’s death occurred after ballots were printed for the state’s regular June primary. Payne was unopposed, and was posthumously renominated for the November general election.

    Party officials in the affected counties (Essex, Hudson, Union) will choose a ballot replacement at a convention this Thursday. It could be the same person that wins Tuesday’s primary, although it is not required to be.

    Republican Primary

    Businessman Carmen Bucco is unopposed for the Republicans. He also had no opposition in the June primary, so will be on the ballot again in November.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    Down-ballot primaries will continue through early September. The remaining ones are listed below, along with other contests we’ll be tracking during that period.

    • July 15-18

      • Republican National Convention

    • July 30

      • Arizona Primary

        • Includes mayoral primaries in Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, and Scottsdale

      • Wisconsin State Senate District 4 Special General

    • August 1

    • August 6

      • Kansas Primary

      • Michigan Primary

      • Missouri Primary

      • Washington Top-Two Primary

    • August 10

      • Hawaii Primary

      • Hawaii State Senate District 5 (Special Primary)

      • Honolulu Mayor (Primary)

    • August 13

      • Connecticut Primary

      • Minnesota Primary

      • Vermont Primary

      • Wisconsin Primary

      • Wisconsin U.S. House District 8 Special Primary

      • Minnesota State Senate District 45 Special Primary

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

  • Overview and Live Results: Arizona Primary

    Overview and Live Results: Arizona Primary

    After a quiet month, the down-ballot primary calendar restarts this week with the Arizona primary on Tuesday. The Tennessee primary follows on Thursday. 

    The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between August 6 and September 10.1

    Arizona Primary

    Polls close at 7:00 PM local time. That’s 10:00 PM Eastern for all but Navajo Nation, which observes Daylight Savings Time. Those polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern.

    On this page, we highlight some of the key races. More Arizona Primary Results >>

    U.S. Senate

    Elected as a Democrat in 2018, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema became an independent in 2022. She subsequently decided not to seek reelection. 

    Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

    Republican Primary

    Endorsed by Donald Trump, Former television anchor Kari Lake is favored over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Lake previously ran a high-profile race for governor in 2022, narrowly losing to Democrat Katie Dobbs. 

    A poll released on Monday showed Lake ahead of Lamb by 50% to 38%.

    U.S. House

    District 1 (Democratic)

    Republican David Schweikert is seeking an 8th term. In the state’s most competitive U.S. House race in 2022, Schweikert was reelected by less than a 1% margin.

    Another closely-contested general election is expected this year, with six Democrats vying to take on the incumbent.

    The only other competitive general election seat in the state is in District 6. Rep. Juan Ciscomani is expected to be renominated for a second term. Former state legislator Kirsten Engel is unopposed for the Democrats. This will be a rematch from 2022, when Ciscomani won by about 1.5%.

    District 2 (Republican)

    Rep. Eli Crane is seeking a second term. Crane was one of eight Republicans that voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Supporters of McCarthy are attempting to repay the favor by supporting Crane’s challenger, Jack Smith.

    Crane will probably be renominated, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

    District 3 (Democratic)

    Incumbent Ruben Gallego will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate. Three are looking to succeed him; the winner will be heavily favored in November. 

    There are three candidates on the ballot, with the nominee likely to be either Yassamin Ansari, a former Phoenix vice mayor, or former state Sen. Raquel Terán.

    District 8 (Republican)

    Tuesday’s marquee U.S. House primary will select a nominee to succeed Rep. Debbie Lesko, who is retiring from this safely Republican district.

    Most of the attention has been on the bitter rivalry between former prosecutor Abe Hamadeh and venture capitalist Blake Masters. Both lost elections in 2022: Hamadeh for Attorney General and Masters for U.S. Senate.

    Donald Trump endorsed Hamadeh early in the campaign – December of last year. However, in an unusual turn of events, Trump made an updated endorsement this past weekend of both Hamadeh and Masters.

    The last-minute shift may owe to a thaw in the relationship between Trump and billionaire Peter Thiel after Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. In addition, Masters worked for Thiel for several years, including as president of his foundation. He resigned during the 2022 Senate campaign, which Thiel helped underwrite.

    Other notables in the race include Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma and former Rep. Trent Franks, who held this seat prior to Lesko. Franks resigned in 2017, and is attempting a comeback. It isn’t completely off the table that Trump’s dual endorsement splits the vote enough to bring one of these others into contention. 

    Maricopa County Elections

    Recorder (Republican)

    Arizona became a hotbed of election denialism after the 2020 presidential election. While conspiracy theorists have not yet had much general election success here, those efforts continue.

    That ongoing conflict has created an unusually high profile GOP primary for Maricopa County Recorder.

    Among other things, this office oversees elections. The incumbent, Stephen Richer, took office in 2021 and has been a defender of the integrity of the County’s elections. That has brought him criticism and harassment, as well as two challengers in Tuesday’s primary. 

    Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix area, is home to more than 60% of the state’s population.

    Mayoral Primaries

    Four Arizona cities among the nation’s top 100 by population hold mayoral elections. These contests will either be resolved Tuesday or in a top-two runoff on November 5. Live Results>>

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    Down-ballot primaries will continue through early September. The remaining ones are listed below, along with other contests we’ll be tracking during that period.

    • August 1

    • August 6

      • Kansas Primary

      • Michigan Primary

      • Missouri Primary

      • Washington Top-Two Primary

    • August 10

      • Hawaii Primary

      • Hawaii State Senate District 5 (Special Primary)

      • Honolulu Mayor (Primary)

    • August 13

      • Connecticut Primary

      • Minnesota Primary

      • Vermont Primary

      • Wisconsin Primary

      • Wisconsin U.S. House District 8 Special Primary

      • Minnesota State Senate District 45 Special Primary

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

  • Overview and Live Results: Tennessee Primary

    Overview and Live Results: Tennessee Primary

    By 270toWin Staff

    August 1, 2024, 10:52 AM ET

    Tennessee holds its primary Thursday, giving us a second primary day this week. The Arizona primary was Tuesday; two of the more interesting contests there remain uncalled as of the publication time of this article.

    The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between next Tuesday and September 10.1

    Tennessee Primary

    Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. The state is divided between the Eastern and Central Time Zones. As all polling places close simultaneously, locations observing Central Time close at 7:00 PM local time.

    The most interesting contests look to be the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the GOP nomination fight in the 5th congressional district. All Tennessee Primary Results >>

    U.S. Senate

    Republican Primary

    Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is seeking a second term. She has a nominal primary challenge. 

    Democratic Primary

    Winning a second term in 1990, former Vice President Al Gore was the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Tennessee. Despite long odds for that to change this year, a field of four Democrats is vying to challenge Blackburn.

    The frontrunner is state Rep. Gloria Johnson, who gained a national profile as a member of the “Tennessee Three” after a 2023 school shooting in Nashville.

    Also on the ballot is Marquita Bradshaw, who was the party’s nominee in 2020, losing to Republican Bill Hagerty.

    U.S. House

    District 5 (Republican)

    Republicans flipped this district in 2022 after it was moved significantly to the right in post-Census redistricting. Andy Ogles emerged from a nine-candidate primary, and won the general election by a 14% margin.

    Ogles largest hurdle to reelection may well be this primary. He has drawn an unexpectedly strong challenger in Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston. She has outraised Ogles, who, for his part, has come under scrutiny for his campaign finances. 

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    Down-ballot primaries will continue through early September. The remaining ones are listed below, along with other contests we’ll be tracking during that period.

    • August 6

      • Kansas Primary

      • Michigan Primary

      • Missouri Primary

      • Washington Top-Two Primary

    • August 10

      • Hawaii Primary

      • Hawaii State Senate District 5 (Special Primary)

      • Honolulu Mayor (Primary)

    • August 13

      • Connecticut Primary

      • Minnesota Primary

      • Vermont Primary

      • Wisconsin Primary

      • Wisconsin U.S. House District 8 Special Primary

      • Minnesota State Senate District 45 Special Primary

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

  • Live Results: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington Primaries

    Live Results: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington Primaries

    Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington are up next with their primaries on Tuesday. Another dozen states will hold contests through September 10. See the calendar >>

    Note that in Washington, all candidates appear on a single ballot. The top two finishers advance to the general election. The election is also conducted entirely by mail.

    Use the links below for full results. Displayed are the poll closings converted to Eastern Time.

    * 7:00 PM local time. The vast majority of Kansas and Michigan are in the time zone closing at 8:00 PM Eastern.

    On this page, we’ll highlight some of the key races to watch, organized by office.

    U.S. Senate

    Michigan, Missouri, and Washington each have a Senate seat up this year. At this point, only Michigan looks to be competitive in the general election.

    Michigan

    Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring after four terms in office. Her party primary pits Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI-07) against actor Hill Harper. Slotkin is a strong favorite to win the nomination.

    For the Republicans, a larger field early in the campaign has shrunk as several prominent names withdrew. One of those, Sandy Pensler, withdrew too late to be removed from the ballot. Of the other three active candidates, Former Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-08) is favored over former Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03) and physician Sherry O’Donnell.

    This article summarizes both primaries in a bit more detail.

    Missouri

    Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is unopposed for renomination. Most forecasters see him as likely to win a second term in November.

    Lucas Kunce, who leads a nonprofit, is favored to win the Democratic nomination. Kunce ran for the state’s other Senate seat in 2022. He finished second to Trudy Busch Valentine in a large primary field that year. 

    Washington

    Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell is favored to win a 5th term. She is joined by ten others on the all-party ballot, including five Republicans, three independents, and one Democrat. 

    Cantwell and Republican Raul Garcia are expected to advance to the general election. Garcia previously ran for governor in 2020, finishing fifth out of 36 (!!) candidates on the primary ballot that year. 

    U.S. House

    There are two incumbents at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.

    Missouri District 1 (Democratic)

    The pro-Israel groups that helped oust Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D, NY-16) are looking to do the same here with Rep. Cori Bush. Both are members of “The Squad” of far-left Democrats. Like Bowman, Bush has been a vocal critic of Israel’s prosecution of the war with Hamas.

    St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell has benefited from over $8 million in attack ads against Bush. The support has made this one of the most expensive House primaries in history. 

    Polling has been limited. A late July survey showed Bell with a 48% to 42% lead over Bush. The same pollster had it 43% to 42% for Bell a month earlier. Taken at face value, this indicates a competitive race perhaps moving toward Bell. However, some caution is warranted as the sponsor of the survey is supportive of Bell.

    Washington District 4

    Of the ten GOP House members that voted to impeach Donald Trump, only Reps. Dan Newhouse and David Valadao (CA-22) remain in Congress. 

    Newhouse has seven challengers on the primary ballot. The most notable are fellow Republicans Tiffany Smiley and Jerrod Sessler. Trump endorsed Sessler, a former NASCAR driver, early in the campaign.

    Smiley, a nurse, ran for Senate in 2022, losing to Democrat Patty Murray in the general election. She received a late endorsement from Trump.

    Given a split Democratic field in a strong GOP district, there’s a decent chance that two Republicans will advance to the general election. Whether the incumbent is one of them remains to be seen.

    The remainder of these House primaries are in alphabetical order by state and then district.

    Kansas District 2 (Republican)

    Rep. Jake LaTurner is not seeking a third term. He won by a 15% margin in 2022 and most forecasters see the general election as safely Republican.

    Endorsed by Donald Trump, former Attorney General Derek Schmidt is favored. Schmidt was the party’s nominee for governor in 2022, losing by 2% to incumbent Democrat, Laura Kelly.

    Michigan District 8 (Both)

    The retirement of six-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee has most forecasters rating this district a general election toss-up.

    Three candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination; state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet appears to be the frontrunner.

    The Republican field also numbers three. Paul Junge, who was the 8th district nominee in both 2020 and 2022, is expected to get a third opportunity to win the seat. Junge is a former TV news anchor and prosecutor.

    The nearby 7th district is the state’s other toss-up general election race. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for Senate. Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett have no primary opposition.

    Michigan District 10 (Democratic)

    Open after Census redistricting, Republican Rep. John James won this district in 2022 by about 0.5% over Democrat Carl Marlinga. James is unopposed for renomination.

    Malinga is looking for a rematch, but must first get by three others on the primary ballot. 

    Missouri District 3 (Republican)

    Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer is retiring after eight terms. This is a safe GOP district; the incumbent won his final election by a 30% margin in 2022. There are seven candidates on the ballot, although state Rep. Justin Hicks has withdrawn from the race.

    The nominee is expected to be either Bob Onder or Kurt Schaefer, both former state Senators. Onder has been endorsed by Donald Trump.

    Washington District 3

    One of the closest general election races in 2022 occurred here. Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the district, besting Republican Joe Kent by less than 1%. 

    Kent had finished second in the top-two primary that year, ousting incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler.

    This primary is expected to result in a general election rematch in November.

    Washington District 5

    Incumbent Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is not seeking reelection. Eleven candidates are looking to succeed her. Per The Cook Political Report ($), “Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner is the only candidate with an almost guaranteed ticket to November. He’s been up on TV since mid-June with a series of ads touting his conservative record in the state senate, and has a $500,000 fundraising lead over his nearest competitor.”

    Second place could go to a Democrat or another Republican. Either way, the seat is expected to remain in GOP hands after the November election.

    Washington District 6

    Incumbent Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer is not seeking reelection. There are five candidates on the ballot. Three appear to be competitive: state Sen Emily Randall (D), Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) and state Sen. Drew MacEwan (R). 

    The top two finishers could be both Democrats or one of the Democrats and MacEwan. Either way, the seat is expected to be won by Democrats in November.

    Governor

    Missouri

    Republican Mike Parson is ineligible to run due to term-limit laws. The winner of the GOP primary will be favored to succeed him in November.

    There are nine candidates on that ballot. Polling indicates a very tight race between Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe. Also seeing significant support is state Sen. Bill Eigel.

    All three of these candidates have been endorsed by Donald Trump.

    For the Democrats, most of the establishment support is behind House Minority Leader Crystal Quade. However, businessman Mike Hamra has raised more money, largely due to his ability to self-fund.

    The only recent public poll ($) showed Hamra leading 23% to 21%. That is well within the margin of error, and may not ultimately be all that predictive given nearly half of those polled were still undecided.

    Washington

    Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee is not seeking a 4th term. A massive field of nearly 30 candidates is looking to succeed him. However, all signs point to Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-08) advancing to the general election.

    Although Washington hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1980, the general election between these two is shaping up to be at least somewhat competitive. 

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    Down-ballot primaries will continue through early September. The remaining ones are listed below, along with other contests we’ll be tracking during that period.

    • August 10

      • Hawaii Primary

      • Honolulu Mayor (Primary)

    • August 13

      • Connecticut Primary

      • Minnesota Primary

      • Vermont Primary

      • Wisconsin Primary

      • Wisconsin U.S. House District 8 Special Primary

      • Minnesota State Senate District 45 Special Primary

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

  • Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Primary

    Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Primary

    Saturday concludes the Hawaii primary, which has been conducted largely by mail.

    Election Day Voter Service Centers are open until 7:00 PM local time, which is also the deadline for all ballots to be received. As the state does not observe Daylight Saving Time, that’s 1:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.

    We’ve highlighted a few races on this page. Full Hawaii Results >>

    U.S. Senate

    Democrat Sen. Mazie Hirono is running for a third term. She has drawn two minor challengers, including Ron Curtis, who previously ran for office as a Republican. Curtis was Hirono’s opponent in 2018, and the 2020 nominee in the first congressional district. 

    Six are seeking the GOP nomination. The most notable is former state Rep. Bob McDermott, who was the party’s nominee for the state’s other Senate seat in 2022. He lost by a 71% to 26% margin to Sen. Brian Schatz.

    Whoever advances from this primary will likely not fare much better against the incumbent in November.

    U.S. House

    Democratic Reps. Ed Case (HI-01) and Jill Tokuda (HI-02) should cruise to reelection in November. The GOP primaries in both districts are uncontested.

    Case faces a nominal primary challenge. 

    State Legislature

    Democrats hold overwhelming control of both branches. In the State Senate, there are 23 Democrats and two Republicans. Twelve of the seats are up for election this year.

    In the State House of Representatives, Democrats have a 44-6 advantage. There is one vacancy. All 51 seats are up this year.

    All State Legislative Primaries >>

    State House District 25 (Democratic)

    House Speaker Scott Saiki faces a challenge from community activist Kim Coco Iwamoto. This is the third time the two have faced off in a primary. Saiki narrowly won both times.

    The Honolulu Civil Beat details the importance of this primary. They note that “More than any other local contest this season, [this primary race] has the potential to redistribute political power in Hawaii and redirect the Legislature.”  

    Politically, Iwamoto is challenging Saiki from the left.

    Honolulu Mayor

    Honolulu is the nation’s 55th largest city – based on 2023 Census Bureau estimates – with a population of about 342,000.

    Independent Mayor Rick Biangiardi is seeking a second four-year term. He has drawn three challengers on the nonpartisan ballot, but is expected to be reelected. If Biangiardi doesn’t get a majority, there will be a top-two runoff coinciding with the November 5 general election.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    • August 13

      • Connecticut Primary

      • Minnesota Primary

      • Vermont Primary

      • Wisconsin Primary

      • Wisconsin U.S. House District 8 Special Primary

      • Minnesota State Senate District 45 Special Primary

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Presidential Debate (ABC)

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

    • November 5

      • 2024 Presidential Election

      • 2024 General Election

  • Live Results: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin Primaries

    Live Results: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin Primaries

    Like last week, four states are on this Tuesday’s primary calendar. Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will choose party nominees for the November election. In Wisconsin, this includes a concurrent primary for a U.S. House vacancy.

    There are also two ballot measures in Wisconsin.

    Use the links below for full results. Displayed are the poll closings converted to Eastern Time.

    On this page, we’ll highlight some of the key races to watch, organized by office.

    U.S. Senate

    All four states have a Senate seat up this year. Only Wisconsin looks to be competitive in the general election.

    Wisconsin

    Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is unopposed for renomination.

    Her most likely opponent is businessman Eric Hovde. He previously ran in 2012, narrowly losing the nomination to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin would join the Senate after defeating Thompson in the general election. She is now seeking her third term.

    Hovde has been endorsed by Donald Trump and has significantly outspent his two rivals on the ballot.

    Minnesota

    Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking a 4th term. She has drawn several challengers but is expected to easily win renomination. 

    The Republican primary ballot is crowded, with eight seeking the nomination. The frontrunners appear to be businessman Joe Fraser and Royce White, a former NBA player. Whoever advances will be a significant underdog against the incumbent.

    Connecticut

    Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy is seeking a third term. He has no primary opposition and will be favored in November.

    Matt Corey and Gerry Smith are competing for the Republican nomination.

    Vermont

    Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders is seeking a fourth term. He caucuses with the Democrats, and will also be the party’s nominee in this election, running unopposed in the primary.

    Opposing him in November will be Gerald Malloy, who was also the GOP nominee for the last U.S. Senate race here in 2022. Malloy lost to Peter Welch by a 68% to 28% margin that year. 

    U.S. House

    Minnesota District 5 (Democratic)

    Ilhan Omar, a member of the far left Democratic “Squad”, is seeking a 4th term. In 2022, Omar survived an unexpectedly close primary against centrist Don Samuels, a former member of the Minneapolis City Council.

    Samuels is challenging Omar once again. Omar seems to be in a better position this time around, although there has been some late support for Samuels following last week’s defeat of another “Squad” member, Rep. Cori Bush (MO-01).

    This is the most Democratic district in the state; whoever wins the nomination should have little trouble prevailing in November.

    Wisconsin District 3 (Democratic)

    Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden is seeking a second term. Winning by 4%, Van Orden flipped the district in 2022. It was the closest U.S. House race in the state that year. Van Orden has no primary challengers.

    Three Democrats are seeking the nomination in a campaign that has become heated in its closing days.

    Wisconsin District 8 (Republican)

    This safe GOP seat is currently vacant; Rep. Mike Gallagher resigned in April. Along with the regular primary, voters will choose a nominee to complete Gallagher’s term.

    The same three Republicans are on both ballots. Businessman Tony Wied received Donald Trump’s endorsement. Former Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. André Jacque have more political experience.

    The special primary results are below. The special general election is on November 5.

    Kristin Lyerly is unopposed on both ballots for the Democrats. 

    Governor

    Vermont

    Of Tuesday’s primary states, only Vermont has a gubernatorial election this year. Republican Gov. Phil Scott is seeking a fifth term. Vermont, along with neighboring New Hampshire, are the only two states with two-year terms.

    Scott is unopposed for renomination and is expected to be reelected in November.

    Wisconsin Ballot Measures

    These measures will be on all ballots. 

    The Republican-controlled Legislature is attempting to limit the power of the governor with regards to how federal dollars are spent. Not coincidentally, the current Governor, Tony Evers, is a Democrat. 

    There are two proposed amendments to the Wisconsin Constitution on the ballot. In each case, a ‘yes’ vote is supportive of enacting the amendment.

    Question 1

    Question 1 specifies that the Legislature cannot delegate away its sole power to appropriate money.

    Question 2

    Question 2 prohibits the governor from spending federal money appropriated to the state without approval of the Legislature.

    Legislative Special Primary

    Minnesota State Senate District 45 (Democratic)

    The Minnesota Senate is evenly split with 33 Democrats and 33 Republicans. The District 45 vacancy was previously held by Democrat Kelly Morrison. She resigned in June to run for Congress. 

    The Democratic nominee will face Republican Kathleen Fowke in the November 5 special election. As the GOP nominee in 2022, Fowke lost to Morrison by a 56% to 44% margin. 

    The special election will determine control of the State Senate until the next regular elections in 2026 (assuming no further vacancies). 

    Morrison is unopposed in her primary for the nomination in the 3rd congressional district. That seat – in a heavily Democratic district – is being vacated by Rep. Dean Phillips.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    Downballot primaries will continue through early September. The remaining ones are listed below.

    • August 19-22

      • Democratic National Convention

    • August 20

      • Alaska Top-Four Primary

      • Florida Primary

      • Wyoming Primary

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

  • Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries

    Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries

    It’s primary Tuesday in Florida, the nation’s third most populous state. Voters will also go to the polls in two of the three least-populated states: Alaska and Wyoming. 

    Alaska has a unique system where all candidates appear on a single ballot and the top four finishers advance. The general election is then decided by ranked choice voting.

    Use the links below for full results. Displayed are the poll closings converted to Eastern Time.

    * A small part of the state (<1%) closes at 1:00 AM Eastern. | + 7:00 PM local time; portions of the Panhandle observe Central Time.

    On this page, we’ll highlight some of the key races to watch, organized by office.

    U.S. Senate

    Florida and Wyoming have Senate elections this year. 

    Florida

    Republican Sen. Rick Scott is seeking a second term. He is expected to win renomination.

    There are four candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. The frontrunner is former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26).

    It is a difficult Senate map for Democrats this year. The party is all but certain to lose West Virginia with the retirement of Joe Manchin. If there are no other incumbent party losses, and Donald Trump wins the election, Republicans will gain control of the chamber.

    Even if Trump loses, Democrats need to run the table to hold competitive seats in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. That is, unless they can gain a seat.

    Florida and Texas are the only realistic Democratic pick-ups and both are considered long-shots at this point. That said – and bringing it back to Florida – Scott is unpopular and only led by four in the two most recent polls. Additionally, the presidential race has tightened in the state since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.   

    Wyoming

    Republican Sen. John Barrasso is seeking a third term, which he should have no trouble securing in one of the deepest of red states. He faces minor primary challengers. Scott Morrow is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

    U.S. House

    Alaska At-Large

    Democrat Mary Peltola flipped this seat in a 2022 special election held after the death of Republican Don Young. She won the regular election in November of that year, and is now seeking a second full term.

    Peltola benefited from the top four primary as well as ranked choice voting in the general election. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III advanced to the general election, where they split the GOP vote.

    This year, there are twelve candidates on the ballot. Peltola, Begich, and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) are expected to advance, along with whoever finishes in fourth place.

    To avoid a repeat of 2022, Begich has said he would end his campaign if he finished third. However, Dahlstrom has not taken a similar pledge.

    Florida

    Redistricting after the 2020 Census largely eliminated highly competitive general election districts in Florida. All but one incumbent is seeking reelection.

    District 1 (Republican)

    This district is in the Central Time Zone; results available after 8:00 PM Eastern.

    Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz is seeking a 5th term in this deep-red Panhandle district. Gaetz led the successful charge to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A PAC connected to McCarthy is attempting to return the favor. They’ve spent millions in support of Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock.

    Despite this effort, and ongoing ethical issues, the incumbent is likely to prevail. 

    District 8 (Republican)

    Republican Bill Posey is retiring. His decision came on the final day of filing, all but ensuring his hand-picked successor, former state Sen. president Mike Haridopolos would face little competition for the nomination. This is a safely Republican district – Posey won his last term by 30% – so Haridopolos will almost certainly be the next representative.

    District 13 (Democratic)

    Freshman Republican Anna Paulina Luna is seeking reelection; she is unopposed for the nomination. Five Democrats are on the ballot looking to challenge her. The frontrunner appears to be Whitney Fox, who is the communications director at the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority.

    Luna won by 8% in 2022. Now with the power of incumbency, most forecasters rate the general election as Likely Republican.

    District 15 (Republican)

    Rep. Laurel Lee is seeking a second term, which she is likely to win in this Republican-leaning district. We’re listing the primary here only because of an odd backstory. Last March, Donald Trump called for someone to challenge Lee. The former president did not explicitly specify a reason, although Lee had endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential race. 

    After no major candidate entered the race, Trump eventually came around and endorsed the incumbent.

    District 23 (Republican)

    Democrat Jared Moskowitz is seeking a second term. He is unopposed for renomination. Six Republicans are vying to challenge him. Despite Moskowitz’s surprisingly narrow win (5%) in 2022, most forecasters see the general election as Likely or Safe Democratic.

    District 27 (Democratic)

    Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is seeking a third term. This district has moved to the right: Salazar flipped it by three percent in 2020 and won reelection by 15 percent in 2022.

    Like District 23, it is on the far edge of the competitive map; most forecasters see it as Likely or Safe Republican.

    Two Democrats are vying to take on the incumbent.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    • August 27

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Presidential Debate (ABC)

      • Delaware Primary

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    • September 17

      • Pennsylvania State House Districts 195 and 201 Special Election

    • September 18

      • New Jersey U.S. House District 10 Special Election

    • October 1

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  • Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election

    Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election

    By 270toWin Staff

    August 27, 2024, 1:50 PM ET

    Oklahoma requires a majority winner in most primary elections. On Tuesday, there will be runoffs in 10 legislative districts where no candidate crossed that threshold in the June 18 primary. They are all for the Republican nomination.

    Separately, there is a mayoral election in Tulsa.

    Tulsa Mayor

    Tulsa is the nation’s 48th largest city, with a population of about 412,000. This is for the city itself, not the associated metro area. Republican G.T. Bynum did not seek a third term in office.

    There are seven candidates on the nonpartisan ballot. The three most prominent are Tulsa County Commissioner Karen Keith (D), state Rep. Monroe Nichols (D), and businessman Brent VanNorman (R). Those three participated in a debate earlier in August, after receiving at least 10% support in a qualifying poll.

    That poll showed Keith leading with 46% support – well ahead of her two main competitors – and just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.

    If a runoff is required, it will take place November 5. 

    Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

    State Senate Primary Runoffs

    Republicans dominate the Oklahoma State Senate, holding 40 of 48 seats. Members serve four-year staggered terms; the odd numbered districts are up in 2024.

    Nominees will be determined Tuesday for these four GOP-held seats. The only incumbent forced into a runoff is Blake Stephens in District 3.

    State House Primary Runoffs

    Republicans also hold over 80% of the seats in the Oklahoma House of Representatives. Here the partisan advantage is 81-20 over Democrats. Members serve two-year terms.

    Nominees will be determined Tuesday for these six GOP-held seats. Incumbents are involved in Districts 32 and 98. 

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    • September 3

    • September 10

      • Presidential Debate (ABC)

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

    • September 17

      • Pennsylvania State House Districts 195 and 201 Special Election

    • September 18

      • New Jersey U.S. House District 10 Special Election

    • October 1

      • Vice-Presidential Debate (CBS)

    • November 5

      • 2024 Presidential Election

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  • Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

    Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

    By 270toWin Staff

    September 3, 2024, 11:39 AM ET

    Massachusetts has the primary calendar to itself on Tuesday. Next week, the final primaries before the November 5 general election will take place in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.

    Massachusetts Primary

    Per the Associated Press, “Democrats have a lock on the Bay State’s congressional delegation, with both U.S. Senate seats and all nine U.S. House seats firmly in their column. They also hold lopsided supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, where all seats are up for election in November.”

    On this page, we’ve included the only two contested congressional primaries. Visit All Massachusetts Results if you are looking for primary results for the state legislature.

    Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

    U.S. Senate

    Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is seeking a 3rd term; she is unopposed for renomination.

    There are three Republicans vying to take her on in the general election. The nominee will have an uphill battle in this deep blue state.

    U.S. House

    All nine Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection. None of them has drawn a primary challenge.

    The only contested primary is in District 8, where three Republicans are looking to take on Rep. Stephen Lynch. This includes videographer Robert Burke, the 2022 nominee. He lost by a 70% to 30% margin to Lynch that year. 

    No Republicans are running in Districts 1 through 7. The Democratic incumbents there join the Uncontested Seats list. In these 36 districts, only one major party is on the November ballot.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    • September 10

      • Presidential Debate (ABC)

      • Delaware Primary

      • New Hampshire Primary

      • Rhode Island Primary

    • September 17

      • Pennsylvania State House Districts 195 and 201 Special Election

    • September 18

      • New Jersey U.S. House District 10 Special Election

    • October 1

      • Vice-Presidential Debate (CBS)

    • November 5

      • 2024 Presidential Election

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  • Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

    Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

    The only currently-scheduled presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump takes place Tuesday in Philadelphia. It will be moderated by ABC News and begins at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

    Coincidentally, the debate begins shortly after voting ends in the final three statewide primaries before the November general election. 

    Polls close at 8:00 PM in Delaware and Rhode Island. In New Hampshire, the final polls also close at 8:00 PM. However, many locations close at 7:00 PM. All times are Eastern.

    Use the links below for full results. 

     

    On this page, we’ll highlight some of the key races to watch, organized by office. 

    Governor

    Incumbents in Delaware and New Hampshire are both retiring. While Democrats are expected to hold Delaware, the New Hampshire general election is seen as highly competitive.  

    New Hampshire

    New Hampshire is one of two states (neighboring Vermont is the other) where governors serve a two year term. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring after four terms.

    Six candidates are competing for the Republican nomination. Former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse are the most prominent candidates. Ayotte has Sununu’s endorsement, a substantial lead in limited polling, and is also well ahead in fundraising.

    For the Democrats, there are three candidates seeking the chance to flip this seat in November. The nominee will likely be either Joyce Craig or Cinde Warmington. Craig is the former mayor of Manchester, while Warmington is a member of the New Hampshire Executive Council.

    Averaging two public polls from mid-August, Craig led by a 38% to 29% margin. However, over 20% remained undecided in each survey.

    This race has turned more contentious in the closing weeks of the campaign. 

    Delaware

    Democratic Gov. John Carney is completing his second term. He is ineligible to run due to term limit laws. 

    The Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in November. There is a three-way competitive primary between Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, and National Wildlife Federation president Collin O’Mara.

    Carney has endorsed Hall-Long, who has come under fire for campaign finance irregularities. She also trails her two opponents in fundraising.

    There are three candidates vying for the GOP nomination. Mike Ramone, the Minority Leader in the State House, is expected to advance.

    U.S. Senate

    Delaware and Rhode Island have Senate elections this year.  Both are seen as safe for Democrats in November.

    Delaware

    Democratic Sen. Tom Carper is retiring after four terms in office. Only one candidate qualified from each party. As such, the respective primaries were cancelled.

    The state’s At-large U.S. House Representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester will be the Democratic nominee. Businessman Eric Hansen will represent the Republicans. 

    Rhode Island

    Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is running for a fourth term. He faces a minor primary challenge. State Rep. Patricia Morgan and IT professional Raymond McKay will contest for the GOP nomination.  

    U.S. House

    Delaware At-large

    Three Democrats are looking to succeed Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. The frontrunner is state Sen. Sarah McBride.

    Assuming she advances, McBride will be heavily favored over the Republican nominee in November. 

    New Hampshire District 1

    Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is seeking a fourth term. He faces a nominal primary challenge.

    Seven Republicans are on the GOP primary ballot. Four of them participated in a debate last week; one of them is likely to be the nominee. Reviewing two polls released last month, no candidate averaged more than 15%, and 60% of voters were undecided. It is fair to say this primary is wide open.

    While this is the more competitive of the state’s two districts, Pappas will start out as a general election favorite. 

    New Hampshire District 2

    Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster is retiring after six terms. Both primaries are competitive.

    The Democratic primary is a one-on-one contest between Colin Von Ostern, a former member of the New Hampshire Executive Council and Maggie Goodlander, a former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Department of Justice.

    The nominee will be favored in November.

    A much larger field of 13 Republicans is seeking the party’s nomination. Three of them were chosen to participate in a recent debate.

    Rhode Island

    There are no contested primaries in either of the state’s two districts.

    Upcoming Elections and Events

    • September 17

      • Pennsylvania State House Districts 195 and 201 Special Election

    • September 18

      • New Jersey U.S. House District 10 Special Election

    • October 1

      • Vice-Presidential Debate (CBS)

    • November 5

      • 2024 Presidential Election

      • 2024 General Election