الصخرة نيوز

الوسم: State

  • Donald Trump poised to win election after string of crucial swing state wins | US elections 2024

    After notching a string of wins in crucial swing states, Donald Trump was poised to return to the White House after a momentous presidential election in which democracy itself had been at stake and which is likely to take the United States into uncharted political waters.

    The Republican nominee took North Carolina surprisingly early, the first battleground state to be called, and later he took Georgia and then Pennsylvania. He was strongly positioned in Arizona and Nevada, other key contests.

    The race between Trump, a former president, and the current Democratic vice-president, Kamala Harris, had been a frenetic contest and it finally approached its conclusion amid scenes of celebration in the Trump camp.

    At 1.20am, at Trump’s election watch party in Palm Beach, Florida, a prolonged, almighty roar went up as Fox News had called Pennsylvania for Trump. “It’s over!” screamed one man, amid the noise, at what felt like the point of no return. A young man in a black Trump hat shouted: “Fuck Joe Biden! Fuck her!”

    The euphoric crowd chanted: “USA! USA!” They gathered near the stage, waiting for Trump to speak.

    At 1.47am, Fox named Trump president-elect, though the Associated Press – which the Guardian follows – has not yet put Trump over the finish line.

    The man who incited the deadly attack at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, earning (and surviving) a second impeachment; the man who was this year convicted on 34 criminal charges; the man who faces multiple other criminal counts and who has been ordered to pay millions in multiple civil lawsuits, including one over a rape claim a judge deemed “substantially true”. The man at the centre of all of that whom senior military aides called a fascist and a danger to the republic was preparing to head for the White House again.

    Eventually, past 2am, Trump emerged to speak, to the strains of God Bless the USA, the Lee Greenwood country anthem plastered on Bibles that Trump hawks for sale. Trump was surrounded by his family, by close aides, and by JD Vance, the hard-right Ohio senator he made his vice-presidential pick.

    “This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before,” Trump said. “This is I believe the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country and now it’s going to reach a new level of importance, because we’re going to help our country heal.

    Supporters of Donald Trump celebrate outside a restaurant in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Silvio Campos/AFP/Getty Images

    “We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country … I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve, this will truly be the golden age of America.”

    Trump reveled in battleground state victories and said he would win them all. He claimed to have won the popular vote, which had not yet been decided. He described “a great feeling of love” and claimed “an unprecedented and powerful mandate”, celebrating Republicans retaking the Senate. He said it looked like Republicans would keep control of the House of Representatives – again, undecided at that point.

    Trump saluted his wife, Melania, his family, and Vance, who he invited to the podium to speak. Vance buttered up the boss, promising “the greatest economic comeback in American history under Donald Trump’s leadership”.

    Trump referred to the assassination attempts against him. “God spared me for a reason,” he said.

    At Harris’s watch party, at Howard University in Washington, the mood became somber, as hopes Harris could become the first president from a Historically Black College and University began to flicker and dim. Around 1am, Cedric Richmond, a former congressman and Harris campaign co-chair, told supporters they would not hear from Harris.

    “Thank you for believing in the promise of America,” Richmond said. “We still have votes to count. We still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.”

    Attendees rushed out, the mood swinging to despair. Eight years after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a similar fashion, few attendees seemed surprised or shocked. Many declined to comment. “What more is there to say,” one woman shrugged as she shuffled out.

    Strewn water bottles and other litter were all that was left after the crowd was gone.

    Before 1am, the Republicans had retaken the Senate. A West Virginia seat went red as expected but the die was cast when Sherrod Brown, a long-serving progressive Democrat, was beaten in Ohio by Bernie Moreno, a car salesperson backed by Trump. Democrats had held the chamber 51-49. Other key races went right. In Maryland, Angela Alsobrooks provided a point of light for Democrats, joining Lisa Blunt Rochester, of Delaware, as the third and fourth Black women ever elected to the Senate.

    The House remained contested, Democrats seeking to retake the chamber, to erect a bastion against a Republican White House and Senate. The House can hold a president to account but the Senate controls federal judicial appointments. Further rightwing consolidation of control of the supreme court, to which Trump appointed three hardliners between 2017 and 2021, looms large.

    In June 2022, that Trump court removed the federal right to abortion. Campaigns for reproductive rights fueled Democratic electoral successes after that but on Tuesday such issues seemed to fall short of fueling the wave of support from suburban, Republican-leaning women Democrats had hoped for and pundits predicted.

    A measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Florida constitution, which Democrats hoped would help boost turnout, fell short of the 60% needed for approval. Nebraska, won by Trump, voted to uphold its abortion ban, which outlaws the procedure after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion-related measures did pass in New York, Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and Arizona.

    A huge gender gap opened. A CNN exit poll showed Harris up by 11 points among female voters, Trump up 10 among male voters. Other polls showed dominant concerns over the economy and democracy. According to the AP Votecast survey, four in 10 voters named the economy and jobs as the most important problem facing the country, a hopeful sign for Trump. Roughly half of voters cited the fate of democracy, a focal point of Harris’s campaign.

    Wednesday will bring jitters in foreign capitals. Victory for Trump’s “America first” ethos can be expected to boost rightwing populists in Europe and elsewhere – and to place support for Ukraine in jeopardy as it fights Russian invaders.

    At home, America lies divided. Harris centered her campaign on Trump’s autocratic threat while he ran a campaign fuelled by grievance, both personal and the perception of an ailing America, baselessly painting Biden and Harris as far-left figures wrecking the economy with inflation and identity politics. Though he was the subject of two assassination attempts, in Pennsylvania and Florida, he stoked huge divisions and widespread fears of violence.

    Trump told supporters “I am your retribution” and threatened to prosecute political foes, journalists and others. He suggested turning the US military against “the enemy from within”. He put immigration and border security at the heart of his pitch, painting a picture of the US overrun by illegal immigration, with language that veered into outright racism and fearmongering. He referred to undocumented people as “animals” with “bad genes … poisoning the blood of our country”.

    He vowed to stage the biggest deportation in US history, to replace thousands of federal workers with loyalists, to impose sweeping tariffs on allies and foes alike.

    On election night, he said he would govern “by a simple motto: Promises made. Promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises. Nothing will stop me.”

    Additional reporting by Sam Levine in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Hugo Lowell in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Asia Alexander in Washington DC

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • Florida votes against amendment enshrining abortion rights into state constitution | US elections 2024

    Florida voters defeated a measure to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution, a devastating blow for advocates who had hoped to roll back the state’s six-week abortion ban and continue their now-broken streak of ballot-measure victories.

    A total of 10 states voted on abortion-related ballot initiatives on Tuesday. Results are forthcoming in seven states, four of which could overturn post-Roe v Wade abortion bans and restore access. New York and Maryland passed ballot measures to expand their states’ protections for abortion and cement their status as abortion havens.

    Given that abortion is one of the top issues in the 2024 election, Democrats had hoped these measures would boost turnout among their base. But while many of the outstanding measures appear on track to pass, including in swing states like Nevada and Arizona, polls suggest a chunk of voters are effectively splitting their votes by supporting both abortion rights and Republicans.

    Out of all the abortion-related measures, the Florida initiative – known as amendment 4 – was long considered the most difficult to pass. Unlike other measures, which only require a simple majority – or, in the case of Colorado, 55% of the vote – to pass, the Florida measure needed to garner 60% of the vote. At the time it was called by the Associated Press, the Florida measure had amassed a clear majority, with 57% of the vote.

    The Florida result is a bitter pill for abortion rights supporters, shattering a string of successes at the ballot box. Advocates have won abortion-related ballot measures in seven states since Roe was overturned.

    After the US supreme court overturned Roe in 2022, Florida became a refuge for people fleeing the abortion bans that now blanket the rest of the US south, before its six-week ban took effect in May of this year.

    Had the Florida measure passed on Tuesday, it would have protected the right to abortion up until fetal viability, or about 24 weeks into pregnancy.

    In the weeks leading up to election day, Florida Republicans alarmed civil rights and voting rights groups by unleashing a wave of attacks on the measure. Law enforcement officials investigated people who signed a petition to get the measure onto the ballot, while the state’s agency for healthcare administration put up a webpage attacking the amendment. The health department also sent cease-and-desist letters to local TV stations that aired an advertisement supporting the measure, prompting the measure’s organizers to sue.

    “Florida’s deadly abortion ban is out of line with the values of our state,” said Lauren Brenzel, manager of the campaign for the amendment, Yes on 4 Florida, in a statement. “Florida voters sent that message loud and clear today, and despite the fact that only a minority of voters voted to retain the abortion ban our extremist government will exploit the situation to deny its own constituents the right to decide on our bodily autonomy.”

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • First-term Democrat tries to hold on in Washington state district won by Trump in 2020

    First-term Democrat tries to hold on in Washington state district won by Trump in 2020

    SEATTLE (AP) — Among the nation’s most closely watched races is a rematch in southwestern Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, where first-term Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is defending her seat against Republican Joe Kent, a former Green Beret who has called for the impeachment of President Joe Biden.

    Other campaigns of note in the state include the 8th Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is seeking a fourth term, and the 4th Congressional District in central Washington. There’s no danger of that seat flipping parties, but the incumbent there is Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump. He faces a challenge from the right in Jerrod Sessler, a Navy veteran.

    Here’s a look at Washington’s liveliest congressional races:

    3rd Congressional District

    Gluesenkamp Perez, who owns an auto-repair shop with her husband, came out of nowhere two years ago to win a seat that hadn’t been in Democratic hands for over a decade. She beat the Trump-endorsed Kent by fewer than 3,000 votes out of nearly 320,000 cast.

    Her predecessor, moderate Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, held office for six terms but failed to survive the 2022 primary after voting to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection. The district narrowly went for Trump in 2020, making it a crucial target for both parties this year.

    The race gained additional attention last week when an arson attack struck a ballot box in Vancouver — the district’s biggest city — scorching hundreds of ballots. Another ballot box was hit across the Columbia River in Portland, Oregon. People who cast their votes in the targeted Vancouver drop box were urged to contact the county auditor’s office to receive replacement ballots.

    During her tenure Gluesenkamp Perez has balanced progressive policies with some measures popular with Republicans, including securing the U.S.-Mexico border — something she criticizes Biden for failing to do — and introducing a constitutional amendment to force presidents to balance the budget.

    She supports abortion access and has hammered Kent, who previously has said he supported a national abortion ban, for changing his position after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Kent now says abortion laws should be left up to the states.

    Gluesenkamp Perez supports policies to counter climate change, but also speaks openly about being a gun owner. A top priority is pushing a “right to repair” bill that would help people get equipment fixed without having to pay exorbitant prices to the original manufacturer.

    Kent is a former Green Beret who served 11 combat deployments before joining the CIA. His wife, Shannon, a Navy cryptologist, was killed by a suicide bomber in 2019 while fighting the Islamic State group in Syria, leaving him to raise their two young sons alone. Kent remarried last year.

    His last campaign raised questions about his ties to white nationalists after he hired a Proud Boy as a consultant and, during a fundraiser, lavished praise on Joey Gibson, the founder of the Christian nationalist group Patriot Prayer. Kent said he disavows white nationalism.

    He has cited inflation and illegal immigration as top concerns.

    The 2024 election is here. This is what to know:

    News outlets globally count on the AP for accurate U.S. election results. Since 1848, the AP has been calling races up and down the ballot. Support us. Donate to the AP.

    Kent and Gluesenkamp Perez disagree on a major local issue: the replacement of a major bridge across the Columbia River between Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington. Gluesenkamp Perez supports plans to replace the existing bridge. Kent has argued that a separate new bridge should be built while the old one is maintained. Plans for the replacement bridge would have “light rail that dumps downtown Portland’s problems into downtown Vancouver,” Kent said.

    4th Congressional District

    Newhouse’s bid for a sixth term is running up against Sessler, who was one of two Trump-endorsed candidates in the August primary. Together, Sessler and Tiffany Smiley took more than 52% of the vote — spelling trouble for the incumbent.

    Newhouse is endorsed by the NRA and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, and he has mostly steered clear of the subject of Trump. He’s instead focused on agriculture and border security in a state with millions of acres of pastures, orchards and cereal grain lands where immigrant labor is extremely important.

    Sessler’s positions are in lockstep with Trump. He says he will fight for strong national security measures, including “an impenetrable border”; work to dismantle regulations imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency and other administrative agencies; and encourage tariffs and other sanctions on China.

    “China’s obsession with global power, combined with its atheistic mindset, which removes the morality component, makes it a dangerous adversary,” Sessler said in one of many video statements about issues posted to his campaign website.

    8th Congressional District

    The 8th District, a mix of wealthy Seattle exurbs and central Washington farmland, had always been held by the GOP before incumbent Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier, a pediatrician, took office in 2019. She has survived a series of somewhat close races since then, taking about 52% or 53% of the vote.

    Schrier combines progressive stances, such as protecting abortion rights, with an emphasis on securing highway money or funding for specialty crop research facilities. The Washington Farm Bureau endorsed her this year.

    Schrier’s opponent is Carmen Goers, a commercial banker who says she is running to tamp down inflation, stop further regulation of American businesses, support law enforcement and cut back on crime. She also promised to “go to war with the Department of Education,” saying that instead of learning reading, writing and math, children are being “caught in the culture wars of the progressive left.”

    Goers took 45% of the vote in the August top-two primary, compared to about 50% for Schrier. Two other Democrats combined for close to 5%.

  • What to expect in the Massachusetts state primaries

    What to expect in the Massachusetts state primaries

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Massachusetts Republicans will choose candidates to challenge U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch in state primaries on Tuesday. The contests top the list of federal, state and local races that will be held across the commonwealth.

    Warren is seeking a third term and is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The possible Republican nominees are industrial engineer Bob Antonellis, Quincy City Council President Ian Cain or attorney John Deaton. Deaton is by far the best-funded candidate in the GOP field, thanks mostly to the $1 million he loaned to his campaign. He more than doubled Cain’s spending and had about $975,000 in the bank as of the end of June. In comparison, Cain had about $22,000 left in his war chest.

    Warren faced a competitive race in her first U.S. Senate bid in 2012, when she toppled Republican incumbent Scott Brown. She received more than 60% of the vote in 2018. Biden carried the state with 66% of the vote in the 2020 presidential race.

    In the 8th Congressional District in eastern Massachusetts, Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch faces no primary challenge in his race for a 12th full term. Vying for the Republican nomination are videographer Rob Burke, health care worker and retired Verizon employee Jim Govatsos and bar owner Daniel Kelly. Burke challenged Lynch in the 2022 general election, receiving 30% of the vote, compared to 70% for Lynch. Biden won this Boston-area district in 2020 with 67% of the vote. Lynch had about $1.1 million in the bank as of the end of June. None of this Republican challengers have reported raising any money.

    Democrats have a lock on the Bay State’s congressional delegation, with both U.S. Senate seats and all nine U.S. House seats firmly in their column. They also hold lopsided supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, where all seats are up for election in November. Nonetheless, Republicans hope they can build on their toehold in the state Senate, where they flipped a vacant Democratic seat in 2023.

    In the Plymouth and Barnstable state Senate district, Democratic incumbent Susan Moran is forgoing another term in order to run for Barnstable County Clerk of Courts, giving Republicans a shot at winning back a seat they won a decade ago and held for six years. The Republican candidates are state Rep. Mathew Muratore and Bourne School Committee Member Kari MacRae. Muratore has Brown’s endorsement, as well the backing of all four Republican state senators and almost all 25 Republican state representatives. Democratic state Rep. Dylan Fernandes is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. He has the backing of much of the state’s Democratic political establishment, including his former boss, Gov. Maura Healey. His uncle David Plouffe, who was Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, has also campaigned for Fernandes.

    Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

    Primary day

    The Massachusetts state primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

    What’s on the ballot

    The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate, state House, the Governor’s Council and Plymouth County Commissioner.

    Who gets to vote

    Voters registered with a political party may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unenrolled voters may participate in any primary. The deadline to change party affiliation was Aug. 24.

    What to know about the 2024 Election

    Decision notes

    Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley posted some of the best vote results from her 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign in heavily Democratic states like Vermont. Yet in nearby Massachusetts where only Republicans and independents can vote in the primary, Trump easily won statewide, carrying all 14 counties.

    Haley did well just outside of Boston in places like Cambridge, Newton and Somerville, but the statewide Republican primary candidate who follows Trump’s example of winning some of the commonwealth’s most populous cities and towns such Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Lowell, Brockton and Quincy would have a clear path to victory.

    Votes in Massachusetts are reported at the more granular town level, rather than at the county level. There are 351 cities and towns that roll up into 14 mostly enormous counties.

    The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

    There are no automatic recounts in Massachusetts. Candidates may request a recount for statewide or districtwide elections if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

    What do turnout and advance vote look like?

    There were just shy of 5 million registered voters in Massachusetts as of the presidential primary on Feb. 24. Of those, 27% were Democrats, 8% were Republicans and 64% were independent or not enrolled in any party.

    In the 2022 primaries, turnout was 16% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 6% in the Republican primary. About 57% of Democratic primary voters and 32% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before election day.

    As of Aug. 28, a total of 442,474 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 82% in the Democratic primary and 17% in the Republican primary.

    How long does vote-counting usually take?

    In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:33 a.m. ET with about 83% of total votes counted.

    Are we there yet?

    As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the November general election.

    ___

    Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

  • Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice

    Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice

    • Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
    • A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
    • The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
    • Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

    © Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.  

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.  

    A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.  

    The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.  

    “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” 

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, gets 3% of the vote. That’s down from 6% in September and 9% in June.  

    Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.  

  • Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election

    Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election

    By 270toWin Staff

    October 1, 2024, 2:00 PM ET

    The vice-presidential debate airs Tuesday at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. It is hosted by CBS News, but will also be available on many other networks.

    Tuesday also brings us the final legislative special election before the November 5 general election.

    Alabama State House District 52

    Republicans dominate the Alabama House of Representatives, holding 76 of 105 seats. There are 28 Democrats and one vacancy, which will be filled Tuesday. Members serve four year terms; the next regular elections are in 2026.

    The Birmingham area District 52 has been vacant since March, when Democrat John Rogers resigned. He had been in the State House since 1982. Rogers left after pleading guilty to federal criminal charges.

    Per the Alabama Political Reporter, “The special election features Democrat Kelvin Datcher, the deputy director of community development for Birmingham, squaring off against Republican Erskine Brown Jr., a 67-year-old retired U.S. Army veteran.”

    This is the first time a Republican is contesting the seat since 2014.

    Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

  • State of Play: How 2022’s Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

    State of Play: How 2022’s Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

    270toWin contributor Drew Savicki wrote this article. Contact Drew via email or on X @DrewSav. 

    ===

    There were eleven U.S. House races decided by a margin of less than 1% in 2022. This article takes a quick look back at those as well as where things stand for 2024 heading into Election Day.

    Colorado District 3: Western Colorado





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Lauren Boebert 0.2% Leans Republican

    Controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert nearly lost reelection amid Colorado’s blue wave. Thanks to support from Governor Jared Polis’ landslide reelection and a well-funded challenger in former Aspen City Councilor Adam Frisch, Boebert only won reelection by about 550 votes. To avoid a repeat, Boebert decided to seek reelection in District 4 – located on the opposite end of the state. Despite having no ties there, she is expected to prevail in the state’s most conservative district. 

    Republican primary voters in District 3 opted for moderate Republican Jeff Hurd over election denying former State Rep. Ron Hanks. Democrats renominated Frisch. His fundraising continues to be phenomenal, but it’s a seriously uphill battle for him without Boebert as a foil. Most outlets rate this race as Leans or Likely Republican and there seems little reason to question those ratings at this point.

    It is worth noting that Colorado was a state where Democrats handed over control of post-Census redistricting to an independent commission. The 3rd District was shifted two points more Republican. Had the lines used from 2012-2020 been in place for 2022 as well, Boebert would have lost reelection.

    California District 13: Central Valley





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    John Duarte 0.4% Toss-up

    As in Colorado, California’s redistricting is handled by an independent commission. That created a challenge for Democrats in the Central Valley and Sacramento areas. Rep. Josh Harder’s district was largely dismantled and he was placed in a district with fellow Democrat Jerry McNerney. McNerney decided not to run for reelection, thus allowing Harder to shift to the 9th district. The open seat was won by Republican John Duarte.

    This year’s election is a rematch between Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray. Gray, a former Assemblyman, seems to be in a better position this cycle. A mild red wave washed over California in 2022 and Democrats are usually adversely affected by midterm turnout differentials in the Central Valley. A blue collar predominately Hispanic region, the Central Valley is notorious for its low midterm turnout. Longtime Rep. Jim Costa won reelection by just 9% in his Biden +20 district in 2022 as a result of the region’s abysmal turnout.

    Michigan District 10: Northern Detroit suburbs and exurbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    John James 0.5% Leans Republican

    As a blue wave washed over Michigan in 2022, the 10th congressional district stood out. Rep. Andy Levin opted to run against fellow Rep. Haley Stevens in the neighboring 11th District and lost handily in the Democratic Primary. Democrats had a recruiting hole in the 10th District that they filled with an underwhelming nominee in former Judge Carl Marlinga. Two-time US Senate nominee John James was the GOP nominee.

    James ended up winning very narrowly as Marlinga lacked virtually any substantive financial support from his party. Many Democrats (rightly) pointed their fingers at Andy Levin for not running against James. Given the close outcome, Levin would have been the clear favorite. Unfortunately, the decisions made by candidates are made so far in advance one can’t predict the future political environment. At the time Levin challenged Stevens it looked Democrats were going to be swept out in the midterms.

    A recent public poll shows James up 47-44% against Marlinga. This race has flown under the radar but could very well end up being quite close again.

    New York District 17: Lower Hudson Valley





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Mike Lawler 0.6% Leans Republican

    This is where analyzing the House races gets a bit tricky. For months, New York polling suggested a considerable rightward swing from 2020. More recently, however, a string of House polls by Siena college suggested the red wave was off. A poll by SurveyUSA of NY-19 had Democrat Josh Riley leading freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro by 4%.

    Lawler seems like a stronger candidate than the other freshman Republicans from New York. There are a couple of Democratic concerns with this district: one being that it is home to a large and swingy orthodox Jewish population. The Democratic nominee, former Rep. Mondaire Jones has previously represented these communities and his strength with them is what powered him to victory in the 2020 Democratic primary.

    Much has changed in the interim, with the Israel/Hamas war splitting the Democratic Party (particularly in New York). Jones attempted to have it both ways on this issue, which is what led to him losing the minor party line belonging to the Working Families Party (WFP). The WFP nominee has been accused of being a Republican plant. Given that Democrats normally win the WFP line in the general election, this could prove decisive in a close race.

    What few polls we have of this race show the WFP nominee getting a few percentage points. A recent poll from Emerson College puts Lawler ahead 49-44% with one week to go of the campaign. Both Cook and the Crystal Ball rate this race as Leans R and that certainly seems like it will be the case.

    Colorado District 8: Northern Denver suburbs and exurbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Yadira Caraveo 0.7% Toss-up

    Colorado gained an additional congressional district following the census and the newly established redistricting commission certainly drew one heck of a district. Located north of Denver, this district is theoretically meant to be a Hispanic opportunity seat but in reality its Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) is below 40%. The 8th district mixes upscale white voters with Hispanics and white working class voters who predominately work in the state’s oil and natural gas industry.

    Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo faces a tight race from Republican State Rep. Gabe Evans. Caraveo, a pediatrician before she entered politics, is the first Latina to represent Colorado in Congress. Given that background, it’s no surprise that she has heavily emphasized healthcare policy in this race. She has touted her prior work in the Colorado legislature, contrasting that with the difficulties of passing legislation as a Democrat in a Republican-controlled House.

    Which way the 8th District has trended depends on which two elections you compare. The district got nearly 7% bluer from 2016-2020 as the state got 8% bluer. That means it narrowly trended right of the state. On the other hand, if you compare 2012 to 2020, Biden did worse than Obama in the district and did eight points better statewide. This is a really interesting district because Harris may very well see some slippage here from Biden given its large working class population.

    Caraveo is well-funded and now has an incumbent’s advantage. That said, a recent Emerson College poll showed a tight race, with Caravaeo leading 48% to 46%.

    Iowa District 3: Des Moines and southwest Iowa





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Zach Nunn 0.7% Toss-up

    In what most considered to be a surprise, Rep. Cindy Axne declined to run again this cycle, leaving Democrats in a bit of a bind. The party has turned to former USDA official Lanon Baccam as its standard bearer. Both Baccam and freshman Rep. Zach Nunn are very well funded. The outcome may hinge on how strong Donald Trump ends up being at the top of the ticket. While Harris is very likely to lose Iowa, a stronger showing than Biden in 2020 may be enough to propel Baccam to the win.

    We may get some clarity later this weekend, when legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer releases her final 2024 survey. 

    New Mexico District 2: Southern New Mexico





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Gabriel Vasquez 0.7% Leans Democrat

    Leveraging their legislative trifecta, New Mexico was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in post-Census redistricting. The 2nd District was transformed from a Trump to Biden district. Gabe Vasquez narrowly defeated Rep. Yvette Herrell. This year brings a rematch between the two.

    Herrell has noticeably tried to soften her image this year. There is some concern that Democrats will collapse along the border this year and that could very well impact this race. That said, public polls have shown Vasquez leading. Forecast models also have him favored, with 538’s giving him an 82% chance of winning and Split Ticket’s giving him a 79% chance as of the publication date of this article.

    Connecticut District 5: Western Hartford suburbs





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Jahana Hayes 0.8% Leans Democrat

    This historically Republican district flipped to the Democrats in the 2006 wave. It has remained there, with only occasional strong Republican challenges. In her bid for a third term in 2022, Rep. Jahana Hayes had a closer-than-expected race. Determined to learn from those challenges, Hayes launched her campaign ads early this cycle. However, overall spending in the 5th District has remained relatively modest compared to other competitive House races.

    Hayes, the first Black representative from Connecticut, leans slightly to the left of her constituents. Although she won decisively in 2018 and 2020, a stronger GOP challenge in 2022 caught her off guard, revealing her unpreparedness for a competitive race. While presidential election results may indicate a Democratic advantage here, the district is notably more competitive in down-ballot races. An Emerson College poll released in the closing week of the campaign showed Hayes ahead by 49% to 45%.

    Washington District 3: Vancouver, southwestern Washington





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 0.8% Toss-up

    This is a true tossup race. Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has deliberately cut a moderate image in her narrowly red leaning district. Unlike in 2022, the GOP establishment is going full steam ahead for Joe Kent. Kent has attempted to moderate his image from 2022 and is betting on Trump winning the district again to pull him over the line. It’s a not bad bet but Perez is hoping her strong emphasis on local issues will power her to victory.

    Kamala Harris will easily win statewide but is fairly unlikely to win this district. Trump would have won the district under the current lines by 4% in 2020, and a similar outcome seems reasonable. This race comes down to whether or not enough Republican leaning voters are going to come home to their party and support the controversial Kent. There have been some public polls of this race and they’ve been very close. Perez would ideally like Harris to lose this district by less than Biden’s 2020 performance.

    Arizona District 1: Scottsdale, northeastern Phoenix





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    David Schweikert 0.9% Toss-up

    After narrowly winning reelection in 2022, Rep. Dave Schweikert announced his departure from the House Freedom Caucus. This was a tacit admission that his right wing views put him out of step with this rapidly growing upscale district. Schweikert benefitted from ticket splitting in 2022 as all but one statewide Democrat won his district. 

    Regardless of whether Harris wins or loses Arizona, it seems likely she’ll win this district. The Congressman faces another very tough race this year from Dr. Amish Shah, a former State Representative. He may need ticket splitters to rescue him again in order to keep the seat.

    New York District 22: Syracuse area





    2022 Winner Margin 2024 Consensus
    Brandon Williams 1.0% Leans Democrat

    Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams is among the most vulnerable Republicans this cycle. He was the biggest loser in mid-cycle redistricting, which pushed an already blue-leaning district further to the left. It doesn’t help that Williams has been a full-throated Trump supporter.  Democrats nominated a strong candidate in State Senator John Mannion, a moderate Democrat from the area. He defeated Air Force Veteran Sarah Klee Hood in the primary but Dems would have been fine with her as well. In a poor sign for the incumbent, he recently released an internal poll showing the race tied.