الوسم: swing

  • Donald Trump poised to win election after string of crucial swing state wins | US elections 2024

    After notching a string of wins in crucial swing states, Donald Trump was poised to return to the White House after a momentous presidential election in which democracy itself had been at stake and which is likely to take the United States into uncharted political waters.

    The Republican nominee took North Carolina surprisingly early, the first battleground state to be called, and later he took Georgia and then Pennsylvania. He was strongly positioned in Arizona and Nevada, other key contests.

    The race between Trump, a former president, and the current Democratic vice-president, Kamala Harris, had been a frenetic contest and it finally approached its conclusion amid scenes of celebration in the Trump camp.

    At 1.20am, at Trump’s election watch party in Palm Beach, Florida, a prolonged, almighty roar went up as Fox News had called Pennsylvania for Trump. “It’s over!” screamed one man, amid the noise, at what felt like the point of no return. A young man in a black Trump hat shouted: “Fuck Joe Biden! Fuck her!”

    The euphoric crowd chanted: “USA! USA!” They gathered near the stage, waiting for Trump to speak.

    At 1.47am, Fox named Trump president-elect, though the Associated Press – which the Guardian follows – has not yet put Trump over the finish line.

    The man who incited the deadly attack at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, earning (and surviving) a second impeachment; the man who was this year convicted on 34 criminal charges; the man who faces multiple other criminal counts and who has been ordered to pay millions in multiple civil lawsuits, including one over a rape claim a judge deemed “substantially true”. The man at the centre of all of that whom senior military aides called a fascist and a danger to the republic was preparing to head for the White House again.

    Eventually, past 2am, Trump emerged to speak, to the strains of God Bless the USA, the Lee Greenwood country anthem plastered on Bibles that Trump hawks for sale. Trump was surrounded by his family, by close aides, and by JD Vance, the hard-right Ohio senator he made his vice-presidential pick.

    “This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before,” Trump said. “This is I believe the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country and now it’s going to reach a new level of importance, because we’re going to help our country heal.

    Supporters of Donald Trump celebrate outside a restaurant in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Silvio Campos/AFP/Getty Images

    “We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country … I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve, this will truly be the golden age of America.”

    Trump reveled in battleground state victories and said he would win them all. He claimed to have won the popular vote, which had not yet been decided. He described “a great feeling of love” and claimed “an unprecedented and powerful mandate”, celebrating Republicans retaking the Senate. He said it looked like Republicans would keep control of the House of Representatives – again, undecided at that point.

    Trump saluted his wife, Melania, his family, and Vance, who he invited to the podium to speak. Vance buttered up the boss, promising “the greatest economic comeback in American history under Donald Trump’s leadership”.

    Trump referred to the assassination attempts against him. “God spared me for a reason,” he said.

    At Harris’s watch party, at Howard University in Washington, the mood became somber, as hopes Harris could become the first president from a Historically Black College and University began to flicker and dim. Around 1am, Cedric Richmond, a former congressman and Harris campaign co-chair, told supporters they would not hear from Harris.

    “Thank you for believing in the promise of America,” Richmond said. “We still have votes to count. We still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.”

    Attendees rushed out, the mood swinging to despair. Eight years after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a similar fashion, few attendees seemed surprised or shocked. Many declined to comment. “What more is there to say,” one woman shrugged as she shuffled out.

    Strewn water bottles and other litter were all that was left after the crowd was gone.

    Before 1am, the Republicans had retaken the Senate. A West Virginia seat went red as expected but the die was cast when Sherrod Brown, a long-serving progressive Democrat, was beaten in Ohio by Bernie Moreno, a car salesperson backed by Trump. Democrats had held the chamber 51-49. Other key races went right. In Maryland, Angela Alsobrooks provided a point of light for Democrats, joining Lisa Blunt Rochester, of Delaware, as the third and fourth Black women ever elected to the Senate.

    The House remained contested, Democrats seeking to retake the chamber, to erect a bastion against a Republican White House and Senate. The House can hold a president to account but the Senate controls federal judicial appointments. Further rightwing consolidation of control of the supreme court, to which Trump appointed three hardliners between 2017 and 2021, looms large.

    In June 2022, that Trump court removed the federal right to abortion. Campaigns for reproductive rights fueled Democratic electoral successes after that but on Tuesday such issues seemed to fall short of fueling the wave of support from suburban, Republican-leaning women Democrats had hoped for and pundits predicted.

    A measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Florida constitution, which Democrats hoped would help boost turnout, fell short of the 60% needed for approval. Nebraska, won by Trump, voted to uphold its abortion ban, which outlaws the procedure after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Abortion-related measures did pass in New York, Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and Arizona.

    A huge gender gap opened. A CNN exit poll showed Harris up by 11 points among female voters, Trump up 10 among male voters. Other polls showed dominant concerns over the economy and democracy. According to the AP Votecast survey, four in 10 voters named the economy and jobs as the most important problem facing the country, a hopeful sign for Trump. Roughly half of voters cited the fate of democracy, a focal point of Harris’s campaign.

    Wednesday will bring jitters in foreign capitals. Victory for Trump’s “America first” ethos can be expected to boost rightwing populists in Europe and elsewhere – and to place support for Ukraine in jeopardy as it fights Russian invaders.

    At home, America lies divided. Harris centered her campaign on Trump’s autocratic threat while he ran a campaign fuelled by grievance, both personal and the perception of an ailing America, baselessly painting Biden and Harris as far-left figures wrecking the economy with inflation and identity politics. Though he was the subject of two assassination attempts, in Pennsylvania and Florida, he stoked huge divisions and widespread fears of violence.

    Trump told supporters “I am your retribution” and threatened to prosecute political foes, journalists and others. He suggested turning the US military against “the enemy from within”. He put immigration and border security at the heart of his pitch, painting a picture of the US overrun by illegal immigration, with language that veered into outright racism and fearmongering. He referred to undocumented people as “animals” with “bad genes … poisoning the blood of our country”.

    He vowed to stage the biggest deportation in US history, to replace thousands of federal workers with loyalists, to impose sweeping tariffs on allies and foes alike.

    On election night, he said he would govern “by a simple motto: Promises made. Promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises. Nothing will stop me.”

    Additional reporting by Sam Levine in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Hugo Lowell in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Asia Alexander in Washington DC

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • Betting markets swing hard to Trump with early election tallies | US elections 2024

    Donald Trump rebuilt a vast lead over Kamala Harris in betting market forecasts as presidential election results were counted on Tuesday night.

    The former president and his allies touted projections from top gambling platforms that put him way ahead of Harris in recent weeks, going so far as to suggest they were more accurate than traditional opinion polls.

    While betting markets narrowed significantly in the final days of the campaign, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend, Trump surged ahead as polls closed on election day.

    Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores. By late Tuesday evening, Polymarket gave Trump a 93% chance of winning back the White House. Kalshi put Trump’s chances at 90% and Harris at 10%. PredictIt put Trump at 90%.

    Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.

    The forecasts these platforms produced for who was most likely to win the election diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, betting platforms have been putting Trump ahead for weeks.

    Should you have turned to Polymarket on Tuesday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 93¢ you wagered if he wins the election. These returns had fallen drastically in 24 hours: Polymarket was offering $1 for every 58¢ wagered on a Trump victory the previous day.

    The betting market projections shifted significantly on Tuesday evening as news outlets started issuing their first projections and calls for the election.

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage

  • The Take: On Election Day, what’s driving the fight for US swing states? | US Election 2024 News

    The Take: On Election Day, what’s driving the fight for US swing states? | US Election 2024 News

    Podcast,

    US journalists spotlight issues in the 2024 election in the battleground states which could swing the vote.

    In the US election, seven battleground states could swing the contest towards Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris. Voters in these states have faced a barrage of outreach and campaign visits. We hear from a panel of local journalists taking the pulse of their communities, on the calculus of voters they’ve been talking to and the issues that matter most.

    In this episode:

    • Ruth Conniff (@rconniff), editor-in-chief, Wisconsin Examiner
    • George Chidi (@neonflag), politics and democracy reporter, The Guardian
    • Sophia Lo (@sophiamaylo), producer, City Cast Pittsburgh

    Episode credits:

    This episode was produced by Chloe K Li, Sonia Bhagat, Ashish Malhotra, Khaled Soltan and Sarí el-Khalili with Phillip Lanos, Spencer Cline, Cole Van Miltenburg, Duha Mosaad, Hagir Saleh and our host, Malika Bilal.

    Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editor is Hisham Abu Salah. Alexandra Locke is The Take’s executive producer. Ney Alvarez is Al Jazeera’s head of audio.

    Connect with us:

    @AJEPodcasts on TwitterInstagram, FacebookThreads and YouTube

  • Five closest US elections: When California, New York were swing states | US Election 2024 News

    Five closest US elections: When California, New York were swing states | US Election 2024 News

    Voters across 50 states in the US are casting ballots to choose the 47th president of the country in an election that has turned into a neck-and-neck battle between the two main candidates.

    So far, election analysts say this year’s presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is too close to call.

    According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily polls tracker, Harris has a 1.2-point lead over Trump nationally. But Trump has begun narrowing the gap in recent days, and has slim leads in the battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

    Yet it’s not the first time that the path to the United States presidency has essentially seen a dead heat between candidates. Previous closely fought presidential elections have also seen California and New York – not the typical swing states – and also the US Supreme Court play a role in deciding the winner.

    Let’s take a look at five presidential races in US history that came down to a few thousand votes:

    1824: US House of Representatives weighs in

    The 1824 battle for the White House was a turning point in American history as four candidates, all from the same political party, competed for the top post and the US House of Representatives had to pick the winner.

    After the death of Alexander Hamilton, America’s first US secretary of the treasury and a founding father in 1804, the Democratic-Republic Party which had defeated Hamilton’s Federalist Party, was confident of its easy path to presidency.

    But picking one presidential candidate proved to be hard for members of the party, and John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, Andrew Jackson and William H Crawford, all from the Democratic-Republic Party, campaigned across the country, hoping to become the next president.

    When polls closed across all 28 US states (the country now has 50), Jackson was in the lead with 99 electoral votes, followed by Adams who received 84, Crawford who got 41 and Clay who got 37 electoral votes.

    But no candidate received a majority.

    According to the Twelfth Amendment of the US Constitution, in such a case, “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President”. Moreover, since the Constitution also stated that only the top three in the race move ahead, Clay was disqualified.

    For around a year, each candidate lobbied members of the House of Representatives – the lower chamber of the US Congress, including Clay, who was the speaker of the House.

    Finally, on February 9, 1825, the House voted to elect Adams as the president of the US, a result that came to form after a critical vote by Clay. According to the US National Archives, he shelved his support for his home state candidate Jefferson, and picked Adams.

    Adams, who was also the son of John Adams, the second president of the US, eventually picked Clay as his secretary of state.

    This did not go down well with Jackson, and he accused Clay and Adams of engaging in a “corrupt bargain” and sought an election rematch.

    During the next presidential election in 1828, Jackson managed to beat Adams and became the president. But his anger towards Clay remained.

    According to a US Senate Historical Highlight brief, towards the end of his presidency, when Jackson was asked if he had any regrets, he said: “I regret I was unable to shoot Henry Clay…”

    1876: One vote changed the game

    Half a century later, the presidential election was decided by one vote in the Electoral Commission – a group created by the US Congress comprising 14 congressmen and a Supreme Court justice, to solve the disputed presidential race.

    The 1876 election saw Republican Party candidate Rutherford B Hayes, who had also fought in the US Civil War, up against Democratic Party candidate Samuel Tilden, a politician known for his anti-corruption policies. Moreover, this being an era when the US was just recovering from the 18th-century Civil War and Congress had passed several Reconstruction Acts, one of the goals was ensuring that the voting rights of Black Americans were secure.

    But in many southern states like Louisiana, white Americans wanted a return to white supremacy and had been protesting against efforts to enfranchise Black people in the country since 1873. Describing the situation in the south, in his essay Black Reconstruction: An Essay Toward a History of the Part Black Folk Played in the Attempt to Reconstruct Democracy in America, 1860-1880, historian WEB Du Bois wrote: “The slave went free; stood a brief moment in the sun; then moved back again toward slavery.”

    By the 1876 presidential election, the Black vote had almost been repressed and this led to the Democratic Party becoming popular among Black voters in the South, especially in Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida.

    According to White House archives, “The popular vote apparently was 4,300,000 for Tilden to 4,036,000 for Hayes”. However, Hayes’s chances of election depended upon contested electoral votes in Louisiana, South Carolina and Florida. So the Republicans demanded a recount.

    After months of uncertainty, in 1877, Congress weighed in and formed the Electoral Commission, which voted in favour of Hayes. After the commission’s vote, Hayes defeated Tilden by one vote: 185 electoral votes to 184.

    On winning the elections, Hayes pledged to protect Black Americans’ rights in the South and also encouraged the “restoration of wise, honest, and peaceful local self-government”.

    1884: When New York was a swing state

    New York has been a stronghold for the Democratic Party in more recent years. But in 1884, the state was a swing state and played a critical role in deciding the winner of the presidential race, which was also marred by a scandal.

    Republican candidate James G Blaine was up against the Democratic Party’s Grover Cleveland, who was also the mayor of New York.

    Back then, the US was rife with economic drama and filled with corrupt money-making deals. The Democratic Party was popular in the southern states in the US and Cleveland had impressed people in New York with his anti-corruption policies. He and the Democratic Party believed they had an easy path to success.

    But just days after Cleveland was nominated as the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party on July 11, the Buffalo Evening Telegraph reported that he had fathered a son with a woman named Maria Halpin. According to the US Library of Congress, the child had been given away to an orphanage since Cleveland was not certain the child was his. But he helped the child financially until he was adopted.

    The Republican Party latched on to this story as its candidate, Blaine, had been painted by the Democratic Party campaign as a liar and politician involved in cash deals.

    In turn, according to the Library of Congress, a popular satirical publication called The Judge ran a cartoon of Cleveland titled: “Ma, Ma, Where’s my Pa?”

    While Cleveland was running on the slogan, “Tell the truth”, the scandal dented his support base in New York, the most populous state carrying 36 electoral votes back then.

    When polls closed, Cleveland’s lead was narrow in the state and he received 563,048 votes in New York to Blaine’s 562,001.

    In the end, the few thousand votes decided by New York together with the combined support of reform Republicans who disliked Blaine helped Cleveland win.

    According to White House archives, President Cleveland pursued a policy of not offering favours to any economic groups. He was also said not to particularly enjoy the comforts of the White House.

    As president, he once wrote to a friend: “I must go to dinner…but I wish it was to eat a pickled herring, a Swiss cheese and a chop at Louis’ instead of the French stuff I shall find.”

    1916: California calls the shots

    In 1916, a drink in Long Beach, California was what it took to upend the US presidential race between Woodrow Wilson, from the Democratic Party, and Republican candidate Charles Evans Hughes.

    Back then, the western US state known for its picturesque beaches and redwood forests had 13 electoral votes and was a swing state. Currently, being the most populous state, it has 54 electoral votes – the most in the US.

    Moreover, besides presidential candidates, two members of California’s Republican Party – Hiram Johnson and conservative William Booth – hoped to win seats in the US Senate.

    According to the History Channel, while campaigning in Long Beach, Hughes was told that Johnson was staying in the same hotel as him but did not engage with Johnson or offer him a drink.

    Johnson wasn’t very pleased and did not offer his support to Hughes in California, meaning Wilson won the swing state by around 3,000 votes. Wilson also won the presidency.

    2000: US Supreme Court decides

    The presidential race of 2000 saw Democrat Al Gore, the vice president of the country back then, and Republican George W Bush, who was the governor of Texas, compete. The contest ultimately came down to Florida — and the US Supreme Court had to weigh in.

    On election night, as polls closed across the country, it became clear the 25 electoral votes in Florida, a swing state, would determine the winner. When results from the Sunshine State trickled in, TV networks across the US began announcing that Bush had won the state’s electoral votes. Gore called Bush to congratulate him, but soon withdrew his concession when Bush’s lead in Florida began dropping.

    Lawyers from the Democratic Party and Republican Party began a legal fight over the votes, with Gore’s lawyers also demanding a recount.

    The battle went to the country’s Supreme Court and, after weeks of uncertainty, the court said the recounts could not be established and voted 5-4 in favour of Bush’s victory.

    The Bush versus Gore election continues to haunt the country’s court, which has often stayed away from elections.

    In 2013, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, who voted with the majority in the Supreme Court, told the Chicago Tribune that the “court took the case and decided it at a time when it was still a big election issue. … Maybe the court should have said, ‘We’re not going to take it, goodbye’.”

  • US election 2024: The key issues driving votes in the swing states | US Election 2024 News

    US election 2024: The key issues driving votes in the swing states | US Election 2024 News

    In a race against time, United States presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have traversed the nation’s swing states in a bid to woo undecided voters and bag crucial Electoral College votes that could decide the winner of the 2024 US election.

    Even if both White House hopefuls secure their traditional blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) states, the Electoral College votes from those are unlikely to be enough for either candidate to reach the magic number of 270 needed to cross the threshold to victory.

    This year, the seven closely watched swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.

    Here’s a brief look at some of the key issues shaping the swing states and both candidates’ stance on them:

    INTERACTIVE - US election 2024 Path to the US 2024 president battleground states-1730614654
    (Al Jazeera)

    Arizona: Immigration

    Since 1952, Arizona has voted Republican in all but one election (1996) before Joe Biden flipped it in 2020 for the Democrats.

    This time, polls show Trump leading marginally.

    Arizona is a border state, and many polls have shown immigration and border control as key issues for many of its residents. In a May poll by CBS News, for instance, 52 percent of the respondents said recently arrived immigrants from Mexico had worsened living conditions for them.

    Here is how both candidates plan to tackle immigration and border security:

    Harris on immigration

    Vice President Harris believes the US immigration system is “broken” and in need of “comprehensive reform”. While she has pledged support for a border security bill that would increase detection technology to intercept drugs and has promised to add 1,500 border security agents, Harris has also promised an “earned pathway to citizenship” and an increase in the number of employment-based and family visas.

    Trump on immigration

    Overall, Trump blames immigrants for rising housing, education and healthcare costs.

    Trump’s plans include deporting millions of undocumented migrants by force, sealing the border to stop the “migrant invasion” by using the military on the US-Mexico border, and constructing detention facilities.

    The former president wants to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their immigration cases have been resolved. Trump also wants to end birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented parents.

    The Republican candidate wants to impose ideological screening of immigrants but has proposed automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US universities.

    Georgia: Cost of living

    Traditionally a Republican stronghold, this southern state went Democratic in 2020 – but only just. The votes in Georgia were counted three times, including once by hand, but that did not stop Trump from controversially attempting to overturn the results.

    This time, perceptions about the state of the economy could determine how Georgia votes. A September poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with the UK newspaper, The Telegraph, found that 41 percent of Georgia’s voters viewed the economy as the single biggest issue for them.

    How do both candidates propose to ease the burden of inflation – which is not yet down to pre-COVID-19 levels?

    Harris on cost of living

    Harris has promised to cut taxes for “more than 100 million working and middle-class Americans” by restoring Child Tax Credits and Earned Income Tax Credits. She has also pledged to increase Long-Term Capital Gains Tax from 20 percent to 28 percent, and the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent to pay for this.

    In order to help lower the cost of living, the vice president has proposed a federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries.

    Trump on cost of living

    Trump has pledged to “end inflation” and significantly increase the Child Tax Credit while cutting government spending and bringing down the corporate tax rate to 15 percent.

    Michigan: Israel’s war on Gaza

    The state of Michigan was a key stop in Vice President Harris’s last stretch of campaigning and here is why: Harris wanted to make a last-ditch effort to win over the continent’s largest Arab-American community that has been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s unequivocal support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

    While pre-poll numbers show Harris with a slender lead in the state, Trump will hope that his “Muslim supporters” will help him win in Michigan.

    More than 100,000 uncommitted voters in the state have declared that they will not endorse Harris or Trump and some may opt for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, who has pledged to press for a ceasefire and halt weapons sales to Israel.

    Harris on Gaza

    While Harris has promised to work towards ending the war in Gaza, “allow Palestinians to realise their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination”, she has also backed Israel’s “right to defend itself” and has rejected an arms embargo on the US ally in the Middle East.

    Trump on Gaza

    Trump has not revealed specific details about what he would do on the issue of Gaza. However, during a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July, Trump urged the Israeli leader to “get his victory” over Hamas. He said the killings in Gaza had to stop but that Netanyahu “knows what he’s doing”.

    That rhetoric is in line with Trump’s actions during his first run as president. His government recognised the disputed city of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, prompting anger among Palestinians. He negotiated “normalisation” deals between Israel and several Arab nations under the Abraham Accords and he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which Israel also opposed.

    However, he has also argued that he will push for peace – and get it.

    Pennsylvania: Fracking

    President Joe Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania offers 19 Electoral College votes, the most among battleground states – and could prove to be the state that determines who wins the election.

    In recent days, Harris has gained ground there, according to Democratic strategist Anish Mohanty. “Things have changed in this election over the last few days and the vice president has pulled off her campaign effectively,” Mohanty told Al Jazeera shortly after polls opened on the East Coast. Mohanty alluded to racist remarks against Puerto Rico by a comedian at a Trump rally recently as a turning point for the campaign: Pennsylvania is home to more than 480,000 Puerto Ricans.

    But in addition to concerns over political divisiveness, immigration, the state of the economy and abortion, Pennsylvanians are concerned about an issue specific to their state: Fracking.

    Fracking is a form of oil and gas production that environmentalists say is bad for the environment but which is the source of a huge number of jobs around the state. The practice causes earth tremors and has a high environmental cost since the procedure consumes large amounts of water, in addition to releasing methane, a greenhouse gas.

    An October poll found that the state’s residents are divided on fracking: 58 percent backed it, while 42 percent opposed it.

    Harris on fracking

    Harris famously opposed fracking when she ran for president four years ago but in late July, her campaign officials confirmed that she will not seek to ban fracking if elected.

    Harris wrapped up her campaign with a final, glitzy event in Philadelphia, where iconic talk show host Oprah Winfrey introduced her.

    The vice president called on “everyone” in Pennsylvania to vote.

    “You are going to make the difference in this election,” she told her supporters.

    Trump on fracking

    Meanwhile, Trump supports fracking and has said he will once again withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and will also remove environmental regulations, such as restrictions on fossil fuel production, deemed “burdensome”. He had withdrawn from the Paris pact during his first term – President Joe Biden had recommitted the US to the agreement when he came to power.

    Wisconsin: Healthcare

    Up until 2016, Wisconsin had been a reliably blue state for decades, but Trump was able to spring a surprise, beating Hillary Clinton by wooing mostly white, working-class voters who were unhappy about wages, poverty and rising healthcare costs.

    Four years later, Biden was able to bring the state back into the Democratic Party’s fold.

    This time, multiple opinion polls have suggested that healthcare is the most pressing issue for voters, in a state that has been badly affected by the country’s opioid crisis.

    Harris on healthcare

    Harris has said she will lower the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, strengthen the Affordable Care Act, and lower healthcare premiums. If elected, she will also work with states to cancel medical debt for more people, she has promised.

    Trump on healthcare

    On the other hand, Trump says he is “looking at alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act, which he calls too expensive.

    Nevada: Unemployment

    While Nevada has the fewest Electoral College votes – six – among the swing states, they could still be crucial in such a close race.

    Nevada suffers from the highest unemployment rate among all US states – only Washington, DC has a higher joblessness rate – as well as high costs of living.

    Harris on unemployment

    Harris has promised to review which federal jobs require a college degree if elected president.

    “We need to get in front of this idea that only high-skilled jobs require college degrees,” Harris said at a rally in October, promising she would tackle this on “day one” of her presidency.

    Trump on unemployment

    At his October rally in Nevada, Trump promised to tackle inflation, but in a more recent rally this month, did not address the issue of unemployment.

    Al Jazeera’s John Holman, who attended Trump’s November rally in Nevada, noted that while Trump concentrated on migration, the primary concern for voters in Nevada is the economy.

    “This is the state with the highest unemployment in the US. It’s been hit hard with inflation. Gas prices, in particular, are high, and it’s a state that has never completely recovered from the pandemic,” Holman said.

    North Carolina: Abortion

    North Carolina is the only one of this year’s swing states to have been won by Trump in 2020 and although Harris does not necessarily need to win North Carolina, any scenario in which she does will make her path to 270 a lot easier.

    Trump can also get to 270 without North Carolina but doing so will be very difficult.

    Abortion is a key issue in the state, according to polls. The state reduced the legal limit for abortions from 20 weeks of pregnancy to just 12 weeks in 2023 after the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade court ruling granting the right to abortion.

    The ruling left the issue largely unresolved and turned the current election into a referendum on fundamental rights for women.

    Democrats are hoping that the issue of abortion will motivate white women, who have historically favoured Republicans and 60 percent of whom voted for Trump in 2020, to now vote for Harris instead.

    Harris on abortion

    The vice president, hoping to become the first female president in the country’s history, has said she will prevent a national abortion ban from becoming law and will sign any bill passed by Congress that restores the legality of abortion nationwide.

    Trump on abortion

    Meanwhile, Trump has said abortion laws are for individual states to decide and said he will not sign a national abortion ban. However, he has not signalled that he would oppose states – like North Carolina – adopting restrictive measures against reproductive rights.

  • US election: How have the seven swing states voted in the past? | US Election 2024 News

    US election: How have the seven swing states voted in the past? | US Election 2024 News

    Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are neck and neck in polls as millions of US citizens head to voting stations on Tuesday.

    Both campaigns have been laser-focused on seven key swing states that are likely to decide the eventual winner:  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Most US states lean heavily, or at least very clearly, towards either Republicans or Democrats. Swing states – also known as battleground states – are the outliers, where support for both parties and their candidates is almost the same.

    But the states that meet the bar to be categorised swing states were not always theatres that witnessed close contests.

    Here is a look at how these seven states have swung in previous decades and more recent elections.

    Arizona (11 Electoral College votes)

    The southwestern state has long been a strong Red state. Barring Democrat Bill Clinton’s win in 1996, the state consistently voted for Republican candidates since 1952, when it backed Dwight Eisenhower.

    Until 2020, when it all changed, and Biden won by 0.3 percentage points over Trump, making Arizona swing state territory.

    According to poll tracking platform FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead in the state by 2.1 percentage points entering into Election Day. But that margin – as with all swing states this time – falls well within the margin of error for polls. The state has more Republican registered voters (34.7%) than Democrats (30.5%). Others are third-party voters.

    Here’s who Arizona voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Republican (51.0%)
    • 2004: Republican (54.9%)
    • 2008: Republican (53.6%)
    • 2012: Republican (53.7%)
    • 2016: Republican (48.7%)
    • 2020: Democratic (49.4%)

    Georgia (16 Electoral College votes)

    This is another southern state that usually votes Republican but swung Blue in 2020. Since 1972, only two Democrats managed to win here: Jimmy Carter, who was from the state, won in 1976 and 1980, and Clinton won in his first election, in 1992.

    Trump won in 2016 by five percentage points over Hillary Clinton. But Biden flipped the state, winning narrowly – by 0.2 percentage points – in 2020.

    Democrats are counting on the state’s Black and immigrant population in Atlanta to help Harris clinch a win this time, while Republicans are hoping that Georgia’s majority rural and white population will pull it back to their fold. FiveThirtyEight has Trump ahead by 0.8 percentage points.

    Here’s who Georgia voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Republican (54.7%)
    • 2004: Republican  (58.0%)
    • 2008: Republican (52.2%)
    • 2012: Republican (53.3%)
    • 2016: Republican (50.8%)
    • 2020: Democratic (49.3%)

    North Carolina (16 Electoral College votes)

    Like Arizona and Georgia, the southern state has typically voted Red.

    Since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, only two Democrats have won North Carolina: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.

    Trump won the state in both 2016 (3.6 percent) and 2020 (1.3 percent).

    He is in the lead again, although by a tiny gap – 0.9 percentage points – according to FiveThirtyEight.

    One Trump campaign official, speaking to reporters last week, said it is the “one state that could bite you in the a**”, betraying the team’s nervousness over the narrow margins in the state. Trump has returned to North Carolina to campaign almost every day in the past week. A surge of early-voting Republicans gives the party some hope, analysts say.

    Here’s who North Carolina voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Republican (56.0%)
    • 2004: Republican  (56.0%)
    • 2008:Democrat (49.7%))
    • 2012: Republican (50.4%)
    • 2016: Republican (49.8%)
    • 2020: Republican (49.9%)

    Nevada (6 Electoral College votes)

    A small state of 3 million people, Nevada enjoys a bit of a bellwether status: Barring 1976 and 2016, it has voted for the eventual winner.

    Voting in recent elections has swung both ways, although since 2008, Democrats have won consistently. The state has a growing immigrant population and large numbers of third-party voters who could prove influential in shaping the outcome.

    In a column this week, Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Harris has the edge: “There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats.” As of Tuesday morning, Trump was ahead of Harris by just 0.3 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

    Here’s who Nevada voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Republican (49.5%)
    • 2004: Republican (50.5%)
    • 2008: Democrat (55.2%)
    • 2012: Democrat (52.4%)
    • 2016: Democrat (47.9%)
    • 2020: Democrat (50.1%)

    Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)

    It is the biggest prize among the swing states, with most Electoral College votes on offer. And many analysts believe that whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to win the presidency – barring other surprises.

    Voters in the northeast state had voted for the Democratic Party candidate consistently since Bill Clinton’s 1992 win – until Trump beat the odds, and Hillary Clinton, in the state in 2016.

    The state appears deadlocked now – and both campaigns held their final pre-election rallies in Pennsylvania. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris was 0.2 percentage points ahead, entering Election Day.

    Here’s who Pennsylvania voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Democrat (50.6%)
    • 2004: Democrat (50.9%)
    • 2008:Democrat (54.5%)
    • 2012: Democrat (52.0%)
    • 2016: Republican (48.2%)
    • 2020: Democrat (50.0%)

    Michigan (15 Electoral College votes)

    George HW Bush was the last Republican to win the election in the midwestern state until Trump shattered predictions to win Michigan in 2016.

    In 2020, Biden won the state back for Democrats, backed, among others, by the state’s large Arab American population – the largest in North America. But the community is now angry at Biden and Harris for their steadfast support for Israel’s brutal war on Gaza and Lebanon, and many have threatened to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or even for Trump.

    According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is one percentage point ahead.

    Here’s who Michigan voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Democrat (51.3%)
    • 2004: Democrat (51.2%)
    • 2008:Democrat (57.4%)
    • 2012: Democrat(54.2%)
    • 2016: Republican (47.5%)
    • 2020: Democrat (50.6%)

    Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes)

    Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin had been a reliably Democratic state for several election cycles before Trump breached that fortress to win in 2016. Before Trump, Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to win Wisconsin, in 1984.

    Biden won the state back, narrowly, in 2020.

    According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is one percentage point ahead.

    Here’s who Wisconsin voted for in the past six presidential elections:

    • 2000: Democrat (47.8%)
    • 2004: Democrat (49.7%)
    • 2008:Democrat (56.2%)
    • 2012: Democrat (52.8%)
    • 2016: Republican (47.2%)
    • 2020: Democrat (59.5%)
  • US security agencies warn of Russian election disinformation blitz in swing states | US elections 2024

    Russia-linked disinformation operations have falsely claimed officials in battleground states plan to fraudulently sway the outcome of the US presidential election, authorities said a few hours ahead of the opening of polling booths in the 5 November vote.

    “Russia is the most active threat,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said on Monday.

    “These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials,” they added, noting the efforts are expected to intensify through election day and in the following weeks.

    The statement also noted that Iran remained a “significant foreign influence threat to US elections.”

    It was the latest in a series of warnings from the ODNI about foreign actors – notably Russia and Iran – allegedly spreading disinformation or hacking the campaigns during this election.

    The latest ODNI statement cited the example of a recent video that falsely depicted an interview with a person claiming election fraud in Arizona involving fake overseas ballots and changing of voter rolls to favour Kamala Harris.

    The Arizona secretary of state, Adrian Fontes, called the video and its claims “completely false, fake and fraudulent”.

    A spokesperson for the Russian embassy did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

    US officials warned in late October that Russia-linked operations were behind a viral video falsely showing mail-in ballots for Trump being destroyed in Bucks county in the swing state of Pennsylvania. The county’s board of elections said the video was “fake” and the envelope and other materials depicted in the footage were “clearly not authentic materials”.

    In September, Microsoft’s threat analysis centre said Russian operatives were ramping up disinformation operations to malign Harris’s campaign by disseminating conspiracy-laden videos.

    Authorities also said they expected Iranian-linked operations to try to stoke violence by spreading false content. Tehran and Moscow have both denied such allegations in the past.

    Success in swing states is key to winning the White House for rivals Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and those states have previously been the focus of unsupported accusations of election fraud.

    With Agence France-Presse and Associated Press

    Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage: